Mare, winning doesn't mean won.
The fact you talk about in two months time etc, shows right now who is winning the economic side.
Conscript payment is basically fake news btw, check out the duma legislation on the matter, the original payment was stopped and a new statute implemented which applied in essence the same and more in terms of payments and family support.
And the thing about sanctions, heard the give it a month or two since February on mate, Biden himself declared the Russian economy destroyed in march. Every new round of sanctions is no lauded as 'the one' - when over 80% of the world isn't sanctioning you and you happen to be the world's largest energy provider, the world's largest fertilizer provider and I believe second largest grain provider.
Not that easy to win a sanctions war as it is v a small country.
Mate, you have zero idea do you.
Sanctions against Russia include (and this is just from the EU) :
Who is being sanctioned?
In total, also taking into account earlier individual sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU has sanctioned 108 entities and 1206 individuals. The list includes:
Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov are in the list of people sanctioned by the EU - © AFP
Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin
Russia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov
pro-Russian former President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych
oligarchs linked to the Kremlin, such as Roman Abramovich
351 members of the Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) who voted in favour of the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk on 15 February 2022
members of the National Security Council
local politicians such as the mayor of Moscow
high-ranking officials and military personnel
prominent businesspeople (i.e. people active in the Russian steel industry and others who provide financial services, military products and technology to the Russian state)
propagandists and disinformation actors
individuals responsible for the atrocities committed in Bucha and Mariupol
individuals involved the recruitment of Syrian mercenaries to fight in Ukraine
selected family members of some of the abovementioned individuals
What goods cannot be exported to Russia from the EU?
The list of sanctioned products includes among others:
cutting-edge technology (e.g. quantum computers and advanced semiconductors, high-end electronics and software)
certain types of machinery and transportation equipment
specific goods and technology needed for oil refining
energy industry equipment, technology and services
aviation and space industry goods and technology (e.g. aircraft, spare parts or any kind of equipment for planes and helicopters, jet fuel)
maritime navigation goods and radio communication technology
a number of dual-use goods (goods that could be used for both civil and military purposes), such as drones and software for drones or encryption devices
luxury goods (e.g. luxury cars, watches, jewellery)
What goods cannot be imported from Russia to the EU?
The list of sanctioned products includes among others:
crude oil and refined petroleum products, with limited exceptions (with phase out of 6 to 8 months)
coal and other solid fossil fuels (as there is a wind-down period for existing contracts, this sanction will apply as from August 2022)
gold, including jewellery
steel and iron
wood, cement and certain fertilisers
seafood and liquor (e.g. caviar, vodka)
What does the oil ban mean in practice?
EU restrictions will cover nearly 90% of Russian oil imports to Europe - © AFP
In June 2022, the Council adopted a sixth package of sanctions that, among others, prohibits the purchase, import or transfer of crude oil and certain petroleum products from Russia to the EU. The restrictions will apply gradually: within six months for crude oil and within eight months for other refined petroleum products.
A temporary exception is foreseen for imports of crude oil by pipeline into those EU member states that, due to their geographic situation, suffer from a specific dependence on Russian supplies and have no viable alternative options.
Moreover, Bulgaria and Croatia specifically will benefit from temporary derogations concerning the import of Russian seaborne crude oil and vacuum gas oil respectively.
As the majority of the Russian oil delivered to the EU is seaborne, these restrictions will cover nearly 90% of Russian oil imports to Europe by the end of the year. This will significantly reduce Russia’s trade profits.
What are the sanctions on transport?
Road transport
The EU has prohibited Russian and Belarusian road transport operators from entering the EU, including for goods in transit.
This sanction aims to restrict Russian industry’s capacity to acquire key goods and to disrupt road trade both to and from Russia. However, EU countries can grant derogations for:
the transport of energy
the transport of pharmaceutical, medical, agricultural and food products
humanitarian aid purposes
transport related to the functioning of diplomatic and consular representations of the EU and its countries in Russia, or of international organisations in Russia which enjoy immunities in accordance with international law
the transfer or export to Russia of cultural goods on loan in the context of formal cultural cooperation with Russia
The ban does not affect mail services and goods in transit between Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia.
Aviation sector
All Russian aircraft are banned from overflying EU airspace - © AFP
In February 2022, the EU refused access to EU airports for Russian carriers of all kinds and banned them from overflying EU airspace. This means that airplanes registered in Russia or elsewhere and leased or rented to a Russian citizen or entity cannot land at any EU airports and cannot fly over EU countries. Private aircraft, e.g. private business jets, are included in the ban.
In addition, the EU banned the export to Russia of goods and technology in the aviation and space industry.
Insurance services, maintenance services and technical assistance related to these goods and technology are also prohibited. The United States, Canada and the United Kingdom imposed similar restrictions.
This means that Russian airlines cannot buy any aircraft, spare parts or equipment for their fleet and cannot perform the necessary repairs or technical inspections. As three-quarters of Russia’s current commercial air fleet were produced in the EU, the US or Canada, over time the ban is likely to result in the grounding of a significant proportion of the Russian civil aviation fleet, even for domestic flights.
EU restrictive measures against Russia (European Union Aviation Safety Agency)
Maritime transport
The EU has closed its ports to Russia's entire merchant fleet of over 2 800 vessels. However, the measure does not affect vessels carrying:
energy
pharmaceutical, medical, agricultural and food products
humanitarian aid
nuclear fuel and other goods necessary for the functioning of civil nuclear capabilities
coal (until 10 August 2022, after which imports of coal into the EU will be banned)
The measure also does not affect vessels in need of assistance seeking a place of refuge, or vessels making an emergency port call for reasons of maritime safety or saving life at sea.
The ban will also apply to vessels that try to evade the sanctions by changing their Russian flag or registration to that of another state. Port authorities can identify an attempt to reflag or change registration by checking a vessel’s IMO number (the unique identification number assigned on behalf of the International Maritime Organization).
How is the Russian banking system impacted by the sanctions?
SWIFT ban for Russian and Belarusian banks
The ban prevents ten Russian and four Belarusian banks from making or receiving international payments using SWIFT.
Ten Russian and four Belarusian banks are banned from using SWIFT.
SWIFT is a messaging service that substantially facilitates information exchange between banks and other financial institutions. SWIFT connects more than 11 000 entities worldwide.
As a result, these banks can neither get foreign currency (as a transfer of foreign currencies between two banks is generally processed as a transfer abroad involving a foreign intermediary bank) nor transfer assets abroad. This has negative consequences for the Russian and Belarusian economies.
Technically, banks could carry out international transactions without SWIFT, but it is expensive, complex and requires mutual trust between financial institutions. It brings payments back to the times when telephone and fax were used to confirm each transaction.
Sanctions against the National Central Bank of Russia
The European Union has prohibited all transactions with the National Central Bank of Russia related to the management of the Russian Central Bank’s reserves and assets. As a result of the central bank asset freeze, the central bank can no longer access the assets it has stored in central banks and private institutions in the EU.
In February 2022, Russia’s international reserves accounted for $643 billion (€579 billion). Among other purposes, having reserves in foreign currencies helps keep the exchange rate of a country’s own currency stable.
Due to the ban on transactions from the EU and other countries, it is estimated that more than half of Russian reserves are frozen. The ban was also imposed by other countries (such as the US, Canada and the UK) which also store a share of Russia’s foreign reserves.
Consequently, Russia cannot use this cushion of foreign assets to provide funds to its banks and thus limit the effects of other sanctions. Even the gold reserves stored in Russia now appear to be more difficult to sell due to international sanctions affecting Russian entities.
The EU has also prohibited the sale, supply, transfer and export of euro-denominated banknotes to Russia. The aim is to limit access to cash in euro by the Russian government, its Central Bank and natural or legal persons in Russia with a view to preventing the circumvention of sanctions.
Similar sanctions apply to Belarus.
Why has the EU suspended the broadcasting of five Russian outlets?
The Russian Federation has engaged in a systematic, international campaign of disinformation, information manipulation and distortion of facts in order to enhance its strategy of destabilising both its neighbouring countries and the EU and its member states.
The broadcasting in the EU of five Russian state-owned outlets is suspended - © AFP
To counteract this, the EU has suspended the broadcasting activities in the EU of five Russian state-owned outlets:
Sputnik
Russia Today
Rossiya RTR/RTR Planeta
Rossiya 24/Russia 24
TV Centre International
Russia uses all these state-owned outlets to intentionally spread propaganda and conduct disinformation campaigns, including about its military aggression against Ukraine.
The restrictions against Sputnik and Russia Today (together with their subsidiaries, such as RT English, RT Germany, RT France and RT Spanish) have been in place since 2 March 2022. The restrictions on the other three entities have been in place as of 4 June 2022.
They cover all means of transmission and distribution in or directed at the EU member states, including cable, satellite, Internet Protocol TV, platforms, websites and apps.
In line with the Charter of Fundamental Rights, these measures will not prevent those media outlets and their staff from carrying out activities in the EU other than broadcasting, e.g. research and interviews.
Like I said., give it a few months......
