Can you expand on that, not following what you are meaning.
Current Affairs Ukraine
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tsubaki
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Things are so complex over there now, with so many possible motivations for things happening that noone over here (in our position) can really say with any certainty why things occur. It could be about perceived Russian vulnerability; it could also be sending a message that all this talk of "formerly Russian lands" affects the rest of the Eurasian states just as it does Ukraine.
There is even a not wildly outrageous possibility that Russia might actually want this Armenia - Azeri thing to kick off again, as it introduces even more stress into the gas supply to Europe (the EU having ramped up its supply contracts with the Azeris) and it gets Armenia into such a dependent state that some form of voluntary union with it might be possible.
Russia is in the Chinese SCO therefore I suspect @tsubaki is suggesting that Kazakhstan may still receive mutual aid, including from Russia, as part of it.
My feelings however would be more the lack of prestige and respect on behalf of Russia for no longer running their own affairs will not be something Putin will like.
It's not that simple of course as he points out, but on the face of it the feeling is that things are slowly chipping away from multiple sides, and that could build up.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
they are two organizations that have a considerable degree of overlap (there is a third as well - the EAEU), so leaving one isn't as seismic as say the UK leaving the EU was
Thanks.
What be interested in both your and @tsubaki ’s take on this - just boilerplate statement or a gentle “hands-off” to Putin?
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
Pretty boilerplate.
Though I think they recognize that keeping a state independent which has no reason to (and no real chance of) joining an opposing alliance is good for the rest of the world - as some in the Russian government do too (when Medvedev threatened them a while back he may have had his neck wound back in).
tsubaki
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that seems reasonable - it didn't really make any sense why they'd leave one for the other (though IIRC the Uzbeks did that so its not completely mad)
davids
Player Valuation: £70m
The position they are in in the Ukraine is so similar to the kids from Nato found themselves in in the Middle East, doing a job they have no investment in. We dehumanise young men to teach them to kill strangers,then are surprised when some of them switch to computer game mode and want to see what a head really looks like when you put a high volocity round into it from close range. And a small minority will have joined up to feed their psychopathy so hence the atrocities committed ( by both sides).
Seems like they are neither leaving CSTO nor offering any help to Armenia
Despite Russia’s greater resources that disparity in equipment losses (and sadly the human casualties associated with it) that would seem unsustainable if continued at current rates - especially given Western country’s resupply of equipment.
Talk of troop movements in Georgia towards South Ossetia / the border with Russia.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
some more on this SCO meeting:
The Wrong Way to View the Xi-Putin Meeting
All eyes will be on the China-Russia strategic partnership, but the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Central Asian members have greater confidence and bargaining power than ever before—and Beijing knows it.
carnegieendowment.org
davids
Player Valuation: £70m
"
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are set to discuss Ukraine and Taiwan at a meeting in Uzbekistan on Thursday which the Kremlin said would hold "special significance".
Ahead of the meeting, the navies of the two countries conducted joint tactical manoeuvres and exercises involving artillery and helicopters in the Pacific Ocean.
Moscow and Beijing declared a "no limits" partnership earlier this year, backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West."
Will this make the US and NATO pause for thought? Probably not. Dangerous times ahead maybe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are set to discuss Ukraine and Taiwan at a meeting in Uzbekistan on Thursday which the Kremlin said would hold "special significance".
Ahead of the meeting, the navies of the two countries conducted joint tactical manoeuvres and exercises involving artillery and helicopters in the Pacific Ocean.
Moscow and Beijing declared a "no limits" partnership earlier this year, backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West."
Will this make the US and NATO pause for thought? Probably not. Dangerous times ahead maybe.
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