Current Affairs Ukraine

[Yarrgh]

The reported Ukrainian offences are certainly noteworthy and should be commended, but we should be careful not to get too carried away just yet.

As we've seen with the Russians and during so many conflicts before, the sustaining of an attack in terms of momentum and supplies is a difficult thing to do.

The UKA needs to be vigilant with regards to counter-attacks and ensuring they take time to secure and maintain and their advances/bridgeheads.

There'll be a lot of questions going on within the chain of command regarding whether they carry on, with the risks that come with it, or take a breather.

The only positive is that I doubt the Russian commanders on the front will be too well versed in a planned, organised retreat and especially a cohesive one.

If they cause them to fall back, it could be a very messy, messy affair.

Indeed. If these gains are kept it will be remarkable let alone pushing for more.

As for a Russian retreat. That could cause some considerable problems back in the Kremlin let alone the front lines. Putin's table just had to grow another 30%. Joking apart, the rouble will eventually stop with him.

Time will tell of course what all the last few days activities mount up to, but Kharkiv and Kherson were never sold as strongly as Lughansk and Donetsk so face saving there - even though they went big with taking Kherson - for Russia to their domestic audience if they get pushed back?

 

[stipe]

They retreated from Izyum and Kupyansk without a fight (i read its to evade encirclement).

Anyway, i think Russia (Putin) face only two options, they either fully mobilize or face defeat (that would spell end for Putin).

Even if (in its current form) they stop further Ukrainian advances, current size of Russian military operating in Ukraine is absolutely not enough to continue further (planned) offensive operations.

 

[PhilM]

They retreated from Izyum and Kupyansk without a fight (i read its to evade encirclement).

Anyway, i think Russia (Putin) face only two options, they either fully mobilize or face defeat (that would spell end for Putin).

Even if (in its current form) they stop further Ukrainian advances, current size of Russian military operating in Ukraine is absolutely not enough to continue further (planned) offensive operations.

Full mobilisation could be argued as the beginning of the end as the 'special operation' would arguably have failed if they need to bring everything to the fight.

The fiscal and political costs of this could be the death nail to Putin's regime - maybe not instantly, but at some point. Would the troops turn the tide to?

They'd need to improve their use of weapons and materials, which appears to be a major problem, or they'd end up bringing out all the neglected reserves.

Putin would likely never consider it, but an organised retreat to defensive positions and a political compromise would be his most prudent decision.

 

[Yarrgh]

They retreated from Izyum and Kupyansk without a fight (i read its to evade encirclement).

Anyway, i think Russia (Putin) face only two options, they either fully mobilize or face defeat (that would spell end for Putin).

Even if (in its current form) they stop further Ukrainian advances, current size of Russian military operating in Ukraine is absolutely not enough to continue further (planned) offensive operations.

That's my concern- Russia takes it up a level. They could introduce far more than extra men with far more drastic effects.

Of course, winter is coming. A hard winter and serious hurt will be inflicted throughout Ukraine and those supporting Ukraine.

Ukraine should have been a conduit between Europe and Russia and profiting from it and part of bringing Russia into the fold of the west as an equal. Instead we have this. What a disgusting disaster this invasion is. A pox on Putin.

 

[stipe]

Full mobilisation could be argued as the beginning of the end as the 'special operation' would arguably have failed if they need to bring everything to the fight.

The fiscal and political costs of this could be the death nail to Putin's regime - maybe not instantly, but at some point. Would the troops turn the tide to?

They'd need to improve their use of weapons and materials, which appears to be a major problem, or they'd end up bringing out all the neglected reserves.

Putin would likely never consider it, but an organised retreat to defensive positions and a political compromise would be his most prudent decision.

They suffer humiliations, they are currently being defeated in major battle, even worse (for them) its Ukrainians who are attacking (something unthinkable in February).

Add to that nationalism and absolute hate between Russians and Ukrainians (i know it well, because same is between my country of Croatia and Serbia), and arrogance and pride of "Great Power" being humiliated by their smaller neighbor, i could absolutely see full mobilization and lot of support for it in future in Russia.

I doubt they could continue to pretend for much longer about "success" of Special Military Operation, because even the Russian Telegram channels and their internet are in full critical mode about what is going on currently.

 

[PhilM]

They suffer humiliations, they are currently being defeated in major battle, even worse (for them) its Ukrainians who are attacking (something unthinkable in February).

Add to that nationalism and absolute hate between Russians and Ukrainians (i know it well, because same is between my country of Croatia and Serbia), and arrogance and pride of "Great Power" being humiliated by their smaller neighbor, i could absolutely see full mobilization and lot of support for it in future in Russia.

I doubt they could continue to pretend for much longer about "success" of Special Military Operation, because even the Russian Telegram channels and their internet are in full critical mode about what is going on currently.

I get that, however as I mentioned I’m considering the long term implications of doing so. If it does occur, eventually it’ll be their undoing.

 

[stipe]

I get that, however as I mentioned I’m considering the long term implications of doing so. If it does occur, eventually it’ll be their undoing.

Putin (personally) cannot afford the defeat. Not to mention this guy is obsessed with his legacy, one of the main reasons for this war is his vanity, and his desire to reestablish Russian power. I don't think this is the person who gonna back down no matter what.

Also he is literally dictator/absolute monarch by this point, when did dictators think logically?

 

[PhilM]

Putin (personally) cannot afford the defeat. Not to mention this guy is obsessed with his legacy, one of the main reasons for this war is his vanity, and his desire to reestablish Russian power. I don't think this is the person who gonna back down no matter what.

Also he is literally dictator/absolute monarch by this point, when did dictators think logically? For example Nazi Germany lost war by mid 1943, that didn't stop them to fight to the bitter end, all because of absolute power on one madman.

Again, I don't disagree with your points at all although his desire for success may lead him to go down the rabbit hole and my point is that may be his undoing.

While full mobilisation may in his blinkered view provide him with the forces to defeat the Ukraine, how will they finance such a mobilisation and resource them.

He loves his power and prestige and needing to conscript so many men due to his/Russia's forces failing and losing taken territory will be a bitter blow.

Euphoria may erupt in some circles and especially his supporters, but the Russian population aren't stupid - it is a huge failure and will be seen as one.

The Ruble is already under serious pressure and the sanctions are squeezing their economy, and this will only exacerbate it and deplete precious resources.

Putin may go all in for this and in the short-term it could/should/would benefit, yet in the long-term I feel it'll undermine his authority even more.

I can't confirm if it's true but my friend said Donetsk airport is about to be taken (if it hasn't already), which was a territory the faux Russians took in 2014.

My only concern, as I mentioned earlier, is that the UKA is able to sustain the offensive and aren't opening themselves to a counter-offensive.

 

[stipe]

Again, I don't disagree with your points at all although his desire for success may lead him to go down the rabbit hole and my point is that may be his undoing.

While full mobilisation may in his blinkered view provide him with the forces to defeat the Ukraine, how will they finance such a mobilisation and resource them.

He loves his power and prestige and needing to conscript so many men due to his/Russia's forces failing and losing taken territory will be a bitter blow.

Euphoria may erupt in some circles and especially his supporters, but the Russian population aren't stupid - it is a huge failure and will be seen as one.

The Ruble is already under serious pressure and the sanctions are squeezing their economy, and this will only exacerbate it and deplete precious resources.

Putin may go all in for this and in the short-term it could/should/would benefit, yet in the long-term I feel it'll undermine his authority even more.

I can't confirm if it's true but my friend said Donetsk airport is about to be taken (if it hasn't already), which was a territory the faux Russians took in 2014.

My only concern, as I mentioned earlier, is that the UKA is able to sustain the offensive and aren't opening themselves to a counter-offensive.

It would be blow of course and admitting failure, but i don't think he got much options. In its current form they can't succeed. Russians also realized what is happening and their part of internet going bonkers in the moment with army and High Command being criticized left, right and center.

He will not retreat cause it would spell end of him, so his only other option is either official declaration of war or some kind of hidden mobilization with a lot of excuses. You are right that full mobilization would leave huge economical consequences but i think Putin is willing to risk it.

 

[AndyC]

Reports coming in that Izyum has been liberated by Ukrainian forces

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Russians evacuating Lyman and Kremmina now. They’re not interested in fighting m, they’re simply running. It’s becoming a rout.

 

[PhilM]

Reports coming in that Izyum has been liberated by Ukrainian forces

Luhansk is on the agenda. Checkpoints on the Russian border are facing a large increase in people fleeing across the border as it unravels behind the lines.

The UKA needs to push up its artillery to maintain the pace of the advance as under supportive fire I feel that most Russian 'strongholds' will disappear.

There's a Stop the War protest taking place in London next week, and it'd be great if it could come true for them.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Luhansk is on the agenda. Checkpoints on the Russian border are facing a large increase in people fleeing across the border as it unravels.

The UKA needs to push up its artillery to maintain the pace of the advance as under supportive fire I feel that most Russian 'strongholds' will disappear.

Their arty is right there with them. Thanks to transporter vehicles supplied by NATO countries. 155 and 105’s. They learn fast these Ukes - this escapade would make Stormin Norman smile - right outta the Mobile Armoured warfare playbook.

 

[PhilM]

Their arty is right there with them. Thanks to transporter vehicles supplied by NATO countries. 155 and 105’s. They learn fast these Ukes - this escapade would make Stormin Norman smile - right outta the Mobile Armoured warfare playbook.

Have you heard the reports that the Lt. Gen in charge of forces in the region has been captured? Killing generals is one thing, but capturing shows it's all Pete Tong.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Have you heard the reports that the Lt. Gen in charge of the region has been captured?

No, but it wouldn’t surprise me. The Russian army are a bunch of scruffs, with no real effective leadership, tgey are nothing more than a rabble (with a lot of artillery) but a rabble nonetheless.