Current Affairs Ukraine

[bluestevon]

There’s an imposed news blackout from certain areas in Ukraine as their forces are believed to be making good progress around both Kharkiv and Kherson.

With the help of the West, Ukrainian forces are better equipped and trained and it seems, significantly more astute tactically. Add all that to their determination to defend and recover their homeland from aggressors… and as @Mutzo Nutzo said above, there’s only likely to be one winner.

Ukraine won’t rush things, they’re at home in territory they know intimately and with Autumn upon them and Winter coming, their outlook will improve exponentially against a lesser equipped, lesser motivated and often demoralised opponent.

Tactics will prove crucial, and that’s where the Russian High Command have already shown themselves to be inept.

A news blackout can be imposed for many reasons mate. But when effectively most western media outlets report what you tell them verbatim and have consistently without fact checking on a vast majority then what purpose in the modern era of satellite coverage does a blackout serve when it would apparently be showing great Ukrainian gains and successes.

They've been getting western arms and training since 2014 onwards btw, it's not a sudden reaction to the invasion this year just a massive escalation since.

Tactically more astute, not sure about that at all, the two reported military successes of Ukraine thus far are the so claimed battles of Kiev and Kharkiv - neither of which was actually much if a battle as in both cases the Russian forces advanced and held position getting the Ukrainian forces to allocate pretty much all of their tactical reserves to those areas whilst the Russians positioned to encircle vast amounts of the Ukrainian armies elite and best equipped units in the east. The battles if both cities was effectively a Russian tactical withdrawal from both regions with 'relatively' light casualties doing so.

Russian tactics 101 is the Russian army is an artillery army, both in Kiev and Kharkiv they didn't deploy significant amounts of artillery to either zone but concentrated it in the east - to great effect.

Basic warfare dictates if you can force the opponent to focus his reserves to a area where you are not focusing on then you've succeeded in the objective, the forces in the east where left short of reinforcements - running out of ammo and ultimately encircled, not sure how this equates to being tactically in control.

Look at the gains made with a force roughly one third to one fifth the size of the Ukranian forces again people seem to not realize this is not full mobilization by Russia, it was pretty much 100k troops (risen to approx 200k) vs a country that had I believe pre war 300k armed forces with a reserve of 900k which obviously where calked up almost immediately not counting the various enforced enlistment and volunteers since then

I'd argue hugely again st lesser equipped, the Ukranian forces have effectively ran out of munitions firball their Soviet era equipment which is still operational (major parts have been destroyed early in the conflict and subsequent months) what they do have is some very effective western systems but in no way the training or numbers needed to be considered better equipped than a force which outguns them 10-15/1 on artillery in fundamentally an artillery war (again the type of war the Russians wanted which alludes to the tactics part again)

Will Russia or Ukraine win the war, it all depends on what you believe winning amounts too for each party involved.

Will Ukraine reclaim all lost territory including Crimea, imo there is not a chsnce in hell, and that's a thought echoed by esteemed realists such as John Mearscheimer who back in February stated about any conclusion/settlement to the war 'forget about Crimea it's gone and it ain't coming back' - I'd also state that the Donbass region won't go back to being Ukranian - maybe a autonomous region but no chance it will ever be Kiev controlled again. (If it did somehow I'd actually fear for what repercussions would happen in those regions post that also).

Before I get labelled pro Russian, a Putin bot or apologist - I'll state the following, I hate war - it's destructive and the people who suffer tend to be the innocents most, but I do understand cause and effect and why this entire thing is playing out before our eyes.

I'll also say yup Russian media is propaganda (I won't even have it on in the house cos of the kids) - but I'll counter with right now the western media is not 'reporting' it's being used willingly so as a propoganda tool itself - but way more Russians I feel realise that their own media is what it is than do people in the west do about their own.

Grab a sample of media articles or reports from a variety of main stream media on any given day and you will see either direct reporting of Ukranian governmental department releases about an event (with no effort to corroborate before printing) or briefings from unnamed stare department officials, mod officials or retired military personnel (who are part of the corporate machine).

Hopefully it ends soon, as right now a proxy war does nothing besides see Ukraine and it's people thrown into a meat grinder on a daily basis.

 

[bluestevon]

These connected articles might be of interest.

Fearing conscription, anti-war Russians flock to Uzbekistan

For years, Uzbeks travelled to Russia in search of better lives. With the Ukraine conflict, the trend is in reverse.

www.aljazeera.com

Fearing front-line deployment, some Russians resist conscription

As the war in Ukraine continues, some young men aged 18 to 27 opposed to the conflict have fled Russia.

www.aljazeera.com

Explainer: How does conscription work in Russia?

Spring conscription is under way in Russia, fuelling anxieties that young men will be sent to Ukraine's front lines.

www.aljazeera.com

Russia acknowledges conscripts were part of Ukraine operation, some are POWs

Russia's defence ministry acknowledged on Wednesday that some conscripts were taking part in the conflict with Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin denied this on various occasions, saying only professional soldiers and officers had been sent in.

www.reuters.com

Read them before mate, it's not perfect Al Jazeera but it's better than main stream on either side in terms of trying to have objectivity at least.

Yup several pretty high ranking relatively speaking people where fired when it came to light some had been sent there - and they where immediately pulled out of active duty positions

So far Russia has avoided any form of full mobilization or even close to it, if they did honestly the conflict would end very quickly (it's mean 3-4m men minimum under arms), BUT doing so would be hugely unpopular, would also undermine the entire premise of this being a limited operation in terms of its purpose and aims and damage the Russian economy hugely - which frankly has weathered the sanctions with very little impact on the people or currency (which has actually increased 'ruble is rubble' arguably Bidens most idiotic statement ever)

 

[bluestevon]

A lot of Russians sadly don’t get an objective multi-sided view of the situation. The more affluent Russians who live in and around St Pete’s and Moscow will I take it have access to western media outlets via vpn’s but the majority of Russians living in the sticks won’t and are drip fed the party line.

Likewise the RuAF are offering financial incentives for those wishing to sign up - an offer most young Muscovites will gladly side-step, unlike those from the poorer, asiatic regions of Russia who have accepted Putin’s Ruble.

I take your point about the draft thing. However with 50K contracted Ru troops dead and possibly another 60K WIA or missing, we now see Russia relying on PMC/Merc and proxy/volunteer units (age upto 60) to fight for them.

This isn’t their war, it isn’t their fight and the coming brutal winter will expose Russias frailties, which is kinda ironic given the historical precedent of Russia using the winter to beat down their invading enemies(Napoleon and Hitler).

Putin’s plan was to have this over and done with in a week. He has now gotten Russia into another Vietnam/Afghanistan situation. There’s only going to be one winner here and it’s not Putin.

Mate you do know Russia outside of Moscow and St Pete's isn't exactly a third world country with no infrastructure or educated people don't you? Pretty much everybody I know has a VPN even 9-10yos I teach these days and most had them before any of this kicked off too.

I'll point out though that the multi-sided view idea works both ways friend, how many people do you know that go out if there way to actually check what Russian media are saying? How many watch people outside of the mainstream loop, are they che king what the Chinese, African, Indian news outlets are reporting on the entire situation.

Or does muti-sided view only work when applied to 'the enemy' so they can see what we say and believe it verbatim like far too many people are currently doing - the exact same way they believed the WMD Iraq story or a plethora of other subsequently proven media lies (Russia elected trump etc).

The figures on losses btw you are quoting are those reported by the Ukraine mod/government - the us estimated 15k dead.

New York times I read reckons 25k dead Russians (countering the Ukrainian realase of a 45k figure) and 9k dead Ukranians as of the end of August.

Now screw any form of thinking cap on and think about from an objective point of view, reports from the Ukranian front lines the other month stated they where losing 500 dead per day - mostly from those thrown together volunteer conscript units that where thrown to the front line without proper training - so that 9k figure is the equivalent of 18days of the conflict - the numbers don't add up do they?


Citing the two examples of Vietnam and Afghanistan as examples of why Putin will lose and Ukraine win is ignoring a pretty obvious 'errrm but' in both the aforementioned countries the country was utterly destroyed in the process with millions dead as a result - hell Afghanistan is still suffering it's consequences to this day (well the us 'unprovoked' and illegal invasion didn't help thst eijer tbf)

 

[bluestevon]

I believe that this is a sound perspective of the Russian population. I'd say a lot also view this as being akin to a civil war and protecting ethnic Russians.

My personal musing over the last few days is about referendums in occupied areas. If they happen, they become part of the Russian state, then they can place those doing national service into these regions. Ukraine attacks and kids die on Russian soil that have family all over Russia - then it will almost be impossible to return those to Ukraine and any resistance to conflict in Russia would drop away. And hence the frantic counter-offensive going on right now to thwart this or minimise lands under occupation before they're absorbed into Russia.

If they held the referendum in Lughansk and Donetsk would the Russian side argue that the Ukrainians did not permit it to go ahead in non occupied areas, and create a potential new Transnistra on the border and a frozen conflict for the time being? This could suit everyone but Ukraine.

Also why not hold the referendums now? The only reason would be that Russia doesn't think it's in their advantage yet. Because they think that they can push through for more gains before they hold them?

I've waffled in enough today mate, but just in the first point, that's the rub of it, the narrative has been spun that the protection of ethnic Russians was a pretense, that ignores one very obvious fact - ethnic Russians in the east where getting killed, murdered and bombarded for the last 8 years, people where locked in a building and burnt to death - purely for being ethnic Russians.

I know Ukranians of Russian ethnicity who fled to Russia during this period and in fact I've taught several, it's not bs or spin it's my own real life experience of it. And in that entire time hardly a word of media coverage.

Yet people are saying the Russians need to watch main stream western media for the truth. Without realising how condescending it actually sounds to hear that for anybody here

 

[bluestevon]

For anyone actually interested in trying to be objective, listen to Putins speeches, not sound bites taken out if context but go back 15 years, and listen to what he's says consistently about this region, concerns raised statements on the entire issue, go right up to his recent speech at the Asian economic forum the urger day

Listen to them, then discount if you want, laugh if you want at them but then st least you can say you've tried to understand both sides of what has abd is happening.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Mate you do know Russia outside of Moscow and St Pete's isn't exactly a third world country with no infrastructure or educated people don't you? Pretty much everybody I know has a VPN even 9-10yos I teach these days and most had them before any of this kicked off too.

I'll point out though that the multi-sided view idea works both ways friend, how many people do you know that go out if there way to actually check what Russian media are saying? How many watch people outside of the mainstream loop, are they che king what the Chinese, African, Indian news outlets are reporting on the entire situation.

Or does muti-sided view only work when applied to 'the enemy' so they can see what we say and believe it verbatim like far too many people are currently doing - the exact same way they believed the WMD Iraq story or a plethora of other subsequently proven media lies (Russia elected trump etc).

The figures on losses btw you are quoting are those reported by the Ukraine mod/government - the us estimated 15k dead.

New York times I read reckons 25k dead Russians (countering the Ukrainian realase of a 45k figure) and 9k dead Ukranians as of the end of August.

Now screw any form of thinking cap on and think about from an objective point of view, reports from the Ukranian front lines the other month stated they where losing 500 dead per day - mostly from those thrown together volunteer conscript units that where thrown to the front line without proper training - so that 9k figure is the equivalent of 18days of the conflict - the numbers don't add up do they?


Citing the two examples of Vietnam and Afghanistan as examples of why Putin will lose and Ukraine win is ignoring a pretty obvious 'errrm but' in both the aforementioned countries the country was utterly destroyed in the process with millions dead as a result - hell Afghanistan is still suffering it's consequences to this day (well the us 'unprovoked' and illegal invasion didn't help thst eijer tbf)

By out in the sticks I’m referring to Asiatic Russia ( Tuva, Amur, Buryatia, Magadan) as these are the main recruitment areas for Vlad’s “Special Military Operation” bought and sold for a few Rubles and a promise of a bag of spuds to their families when they get slotted.

The figures I quoted are from U.K. and US defence intelligence updates that state that Russia has lost more than a 3rd of its deployed forces (originally 190K).

FWIW I don’t listen to stuff coming out of the Ukranian govt as they have an agenda . They need weapons, ammo, supplies and they’ll do anything to get them. Nor do I believe a word that comes from the Russian media as again it’s all bollox and spin.

There are some decent Russian sources who post on-line and if you follow some of the Russian military bloggers you can get a feeling for how the SMO is going from their perspective.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I've waffled in enough today mate, but just in the first point, that's the rub of it, the narrative has been spun that the protection of ethnic Russians was a pretense, that ignores one very obvious fact - ethnic Russians in the east where getting killed, murdered and bombarded for the last 8 years, people where locked in a building and burnt to death - purely for being ethnic Russians.

I know Ukranians of Russian ethnicity who fled to Russia during this period and in fact I've taught several, it's not bs or spin it's my own real life experience of it. And in that entire time hardly a word of media coverage.

Yet people are saying the Russians need to watch main stream western media for the truth. Without realising how condescending it actually sounds to hear that for anybody here

Mate you need to give your head a wobble. Putin couldn’t give a flying one about ethnic Russians in Ukraine. In reality he’s using them as cannon fodder on the front line. Forced mobilization, Limited supplies, crap weapons and no rest from the front-line.

This war is all about Russia’s response to NATO expansion and the deployment of anti- ballistic missile systems in Eastern Europe. The Ethnic Russian issue is simply a convenient excuse.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[AndyC]

@bluestevon

Whilst it appears from your comments above that you have some insight into the current situation existing between Ukraine and Russia, without my betraying any confidences (not to anybody on this forum), I am very confident in the accuracy of the information I have received, as it is coming from two independent sources, both in Ukraine... who are unknown to each other.

I have known these people for a number of years and have had the pleasure of their company both here in the UK and even moreso at their homes in Kyiv.

If they are telling me any untruths, that would be an enormous first in our long-standing friendships, and knowing them as closely as I do, I am 100% confident that they are not embellishing anything they have passed on to me.

Time will, of course, tell but, I sense from what they have told me that the tide is turning in favour of Ukraine and against Putin and the Russian forces who I would imagine are still largely being lied to and misled.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[catcherintherye]

I've waffled in enough today mate, but just in the first point, that's the rub of it, the narrative has been spun that the protection of ethnic Russians was a pretense, that ignores one very obvious fact - ethnic Russians in the east where getting killed, murdered and bombarded for the last 8 years, people where locked in a building and burnt to death - purely for being ethnic Russians.

I know Ukranians of Russian ethnicity who fled to Russia during this period and in fact I've taught several, it's not bs or spin it's my own real life experience of it. And in that entire time hardly a word of media coverage.

Yet people are saying the Russians need to watch main stream western media for the truth. Without realising how condescending it actually sounds to hear that for anybody here

If Ukraine win this war, things are going to get very very bad for ethnic Russians in the East of that country, as well as socialists/Trade Unionists etc.

 

[bluestevon]

@bluestevon

Whilst it appears from your comments above that you have some insight into the current situation existing between Ukraine and Russia, without my betraying any confidences (not to anybody on this forum), I am very confident in the accuracy of the information I have received, as it is coming from two independent sources, both in Ukraine... who are unknown to each other.

I have known these people for a number of years and have had the pleasure of their company both here in the UK and even moreso at their homes in Kyiv.

If they are telling me any untruths, that would be an enormous first in our long-standing friendships, and knowing them as closely as I do, I am 100% confident that they are not embellishing anything they have passed on to me.

Time will, of course, tell but, I sense from what they have told me that the tide is turning in favour of Ukraine and against Putin and the Russian forces who I would imagine are still largely being lied to and misled.

War when you're dealing on this scale is never going to be linear mate - what's the old saying 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy' (or something like that).

Kherson appears to be a feint fir a serious push from Kharkiv - like any good feint it needed to be sold well enough (likely in large cost to Ukranian military) the Kharkiv push and the Russian reaction will be 'interesting' over the next days/weeks (sounds horrid using interesting in such a regard).

The US are pretty much as involved in every facet now though short of having actual troops in situ. Live intelligence, funding, supplying the armaments and picking the targets - my biggest worry is the USA now completely lacks anyone in the background with the understanding of Russia/Putin besides for an almost charactuture which we often here spouted forth. Least in the 50-s 80s there where people who understood and had communication channels to the other side which all but went with the dissolution of the Russian studies program.vwe now have people in power who claim to 'know how Putin rhinks' when frankly I don't believe they have a clue

 

[bluestevon]

Mate you need to give your head a wobble. Putin couldn’t give a flying one about ethnic Russians in Ukraine. In reality he’s using them as cannon fodder on the front line. Forced mobilization, Limited supplies, crap weapons and no rest from the front-line.

This war is all about Russia’s response to NATO expansion and the deployment of anti- ballistic missile systems in Eastern Europe. The Ethnic Russian issue is simply a convenient excuse.

Head doesn't need a wobble mate, I fully understand the red flag/red line was always NATO expansion - the fact many don't seem to understand it was the provoking factor and catalyst baffles me, Putin for all his time in power has repeatedly stated it as such and stated that at a point the expansion would pise an existential threat to the Russian Federation, Ukraine was a matter of when not if as king as NATO kept pushing closer to the borders - Mearscheimer and many others predicted it before Crimea and predicted the current scenario would unfold.

Whatever the opinion held prior or post these events on Putin, one thing he has never done is bluff,.

In regards the ethnic Russians, I'll point to his speech years ago which is often misinterpreted or misquoted about the greatest tragedy for Russia - being the dissolution of the USSR often seen as being a sign he wished to rebuild, or at least portrayed that way - whilst not quoting the real crucial part.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the century. And for the Russian people, it became a real drama. Tens of millions of our citizens found themselves outside the Russian Federation.

Added to a famous connected quote from him.

Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.“

 

[bluestevon]

If Ukraine win this war, things are going to get very very bad for ethnic Russians in the East of that country, as well as socialists/Trade Unionists etc.

A huge amount have already left for Russia over the past 4-5 months mate.

Ukraine atm is effectively a one party state in essence, and the only media is the Ukraine governmental controlled one - the course if events have almost ironically taken a president with a 12% approval rating late last year (who'd broke his main election promise of stopping the war in Donbass by instead accelerating it, to stamp out corruption - which exponentially rose) and made him the new media darling, paradise papers showing the corruption no longer referenced, who his political 'backer' is forgotten in the headlong rush to self cripple the economies of the anglosphere.

I feel deep deep sympathy with all the innocent people of Ukraine who are in reality just pawns on a grand chessboard in all this (with zero care about them in reality from any single government) - in January if it was stated categorically that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO and the Minsk agreement which Ukraine signed would have been enacted upon (the ceasefire and acceptance of the semi autonomous regions of Lugansk and Donbass) then none of this would have ever happened.

That's not saying invading was justified or not, it's the simple fact of the matter, and the rest as they say is History unfolding

 

[LinekersLegs]