It will be a tough, brutal winter. Whilst the Ukes are fighting for their families and their future, the Russians are fighting for a few worthless rubles and because they’ve been drafted.
Current Affairs Ukraine
- Thread starter Mutzo Nutzo
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It would not happen, mate, Putin not after a peace deal, Zelenskiy not after giving up half his country.
There is only one peace deal.....RU pulls out.
Yarrgh
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I think that you over estimate the UK's influence here.
The world dropped the ball years and years ago with relationships in all former Soviet Union countries. Since the Maidan Revolution this was almost inevitable and measures to avoid this invasion could have been taken.
There are a few videos doing the rounds from the top MG-gunners helmet camera, seems legit. Horrible preparation, bad communication, personal weapon handling skills, not really impressive in anything other than the size of cohones these guys have. You see a few other vehicles as well, would be interesting to know the amount of troops involved. Theres fire going in both directions so must have been an experience to say the least…
This is the first video I was referring to.
bluestevon
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Trust me mate Zelenskiy has zero say on if any peace deal happens - it happens when the US says it does (if they ever do)
Russian I can guarantee a million percent won't pull out mate
bluestevon
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Don't for a second believe a spun narrative of Russians on mass not wanting to be there,
btw there's no draft in Russia mate, like many European countries there's national service, completely different kettles of fish.
A lot of Russians believe the conflict is happening due to an existential threat on Russia from NATO expansion - thinking otherwise is not looking at the entire mess correctly
Martin Alvito
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Something would have to give, because the sides are too far apart. A de facto status quo ante (Crimea's cessation) along with some sort of demilitarized home rule under Ukraine's aegis in Donbas might get across the line eventually, but it would take popular pressure on Zelenskyy that he isn't presently facing.
If the nuclear power plant were to give, that might build up enough support for a coalition of the willing to tell Putin to get out or get stuffed, as that would functionally be the use of nuclear weapons against civilians. I can even conceive of the UN finding a way to strip Russia of its veto (the easiest glide path being France, Great Britain and the United States agreeing to surrender theirs in return for the recognition by the Assembly that the PRC and Russia have no right to a veto as successor states), and China reluctantly signing on to a unanimous declaration authorizing the use of force. At that point, the best move for all parties becomes a deal for Russia to withdraw in return for Putin dodging a trip to the Hague.
I can imagine other worlds where the present situation meaningfully changes (eg: Putin's death), but they seem considerably less likely.
A lot of Russians sadly don’t get an objective multi-sided view of the situation. The more affluent Russians who live in and around St Pete’s and Moscow will I take it have access to western media outlets via vpn’s but the majority of Russians living in the sticks won’t and are drip fed the party line.
Likewise the RuAF are offering financial incentives for those wishing to sign up - an offer most young Muscovites will gladly side-step, unlike those from the poorer, asiatic regions of Russia who have accepted Putin’s Ruble.
I take your point about the draft thing. However with 50K contracted Ru troops dead and possibly another 60K WIA or missing, we now see Russia relying on PMC/Merc and proxy/volunteer units (age upto 60) to fight for them.
This isn’t their war, it isn’t their fight and the coming brutal winter will expose Russias frailties, which is kinda ironic given the historical precedent of Russia using the winter to beat down their invading enemies(Napoleon and Hitler).
Putin’s plan was to have this over and done with in a week. He has now gotten Russia into another Vietnam/Afghanistan situation. There’s only going to be one winner here and it’s not Putin.
Spadge Vernacular
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These connected articles might be of interest.
Fearing conscription, anti-war Russians flock to Uzbekistan
For years, Uzbeks travelled to Russia in search of better lives. With the Ukraine conflict, the trend is in reverse.
Fearing front-line deployment, some Russians resist conscription
As the war in Ukraine continues, some young men aged 18 to 27 opposed to the conflict have fled Russia.
Explainer: How does conscription work in Russia?
Spring conscription is under way in Russia, fuelling anxieties that young men will be sent to Ukraine's front lines.
Russia acknowledges conscripts were part of Ukraine operation, some are POWs
Russia's defence ministry acknowledged on Wednesday that some conscripts were taking part in the conflict with Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin denied this on various occasions, saying only professional soldiers and officers had been sent in.
AndyC
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There’s an imposed news blackout from certain areas in Ukraine as their forces are believed to be making good progress around both Kharkiv and Kherson.
With the help of the West, Ukrainian forces are better equipped and trained and it seems, significantly more astute tactically. Add all that to their determination to defend and recover their homeland from aggressors… and as @Mutzo Nutzo said above, there’s only likely to be one winner.
Ukraine won’t rush things, they’re at home in territory they know intimately and with Autumn upon them and Winter coming, their outlook will improve exponentially against a lesser equipped, lesser motivated and often demoralised opponent.
Tactics will prove crucial, and that’s where the Russian High Command have already shown themselves to be inept.
With the help of the West, Ukrainian forces are better equipped and trained and it seems, significantly more astute tactically. Add all that to their determination to defend and recover their homeland from aggressors… and as @Mutzo Nutzo said above, there’s only likely to be one winner.
Ukraine won’t rush things, they’re at home in territory they know intimately and with Autumn upon them and Winter coming, their outlook will improve exponentially against a lesser equipped, lesser motivated and often demoralised opponent.
Tactics will prove crucial, and that’s where the Russian High Command have already shown themselves to be inept.
Yarrgh
Player Valuation: £80m
I believe that this is a sound perspective of the Russian population. I'd say a lot also view this as being akin to a civil war and protecting ethnic Russians.
My personal musing over the last few days is about referendums in occupied areas. If they happen, they become part of the Russian state, then they can place those doing national service into these regions. Ukraine attacks and kids die on Russian soil that have family all over Russia - then it will almost be impossible to return those to Ukraine and any resistance to conflict in Russia would drop away. And hence the frantic counter-offensive going on right now to thwart this or minimise lands under occupation before they're absorbed into Russia.
If they held the referendum in Lughansk and Donetsk would the Russian side argue that the Ukrainians did not permit it to go ahead in non occupied areas, and create a potential new Transnistra on the border and a frozen conflict for the time being? This could suit everyone but Ukraine.
Also why not hold the referendums now? The only reason would be that Russia doesn't think it's in their advantage yet. Because they think that they can push through for more gains before they hold them?
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