Current Affairs The WOKE

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Bsc in mathematics and statistics. Years of professional data analysis.

And I’m busy I’ll get back to you. I haven’t ruled out climate change, I’m saying the modelling is weak.
So despite a training that should make you aware of the significance of noise and outliers in data you're happy to show a graph where a single data point is supposed to be significant? Or have I misunderstood the point you were trying to make?
 
So despite a training that should make you aware of the significance of noise and outliers in data you're happy to show a graph where a single data point is supposed to be significant? Or have I misunderstood the point you were trying to make?
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Mate, the bbc??? Getting offended and reposting the bbc is woke behaviour, have you been having me on here? Now I'm not even sure if you really do sets at the gym or if you do have a woke mate who talks about CRT all the time
Sounds like a wokeflake to me.

Real men and women find out peer reviewes evidence fro. Youtube and Facebook.
 
So despite a training that should make you aware of the significance of noise and outliers in data you're happy to show a graph where a single data point is supposed to be significant? Or have I misunderstood the point you were trying to make?
That is a valid point, but not quite what I was saying or hinting at.

They were modelling climate change with linear regression to say climate is increasing every 10 years by 0.22. The equation they were using was something roughly like y= mx +c with m value of 0.22 this equation will just grow and grow, until a large enough x value will return a y value hotter than the sun. Predictor v response is x and y. x is year y is climate.

The basic message is, climate is increasing by 0.22c every 10 years is gobsmackingly 💩 it was just typical woke Comradian climate alarmism. You can’t use linear regression to model non linear processes just nope.

The models they do use can’t predict backwards or forwards accurately. For example, give the model an input value and roll it backwards, it does not match observed values.

When they have used the models to predict it has come out as too hot, someone now saying not hot enough 🤣 any claim they make on these models is questionable.

All the funding goes into proving climate science, anyone who objects is an out cast why there is “100% agreement” not because the science is settled otherwise the models would work! This is not how science should work.

The fundamental issue is sensitivity to initial conditions, chaos theory, cloud formation is chaotic and massively affects climate modelling. They cannot and will not ever be able to get around this fundamental truth.

We can observe climate has increased over the last 100 / 150 years sure but on a geological scale it’s a fart in the wind. I’d love to live for the next few hundred years to see how this plays out! There are plenty of reasons to move away from fossil fuels climate modelling not one for me.
 
That is a valid point, but not quite what I was saying or hinting at.

They were modelling climate change with linear regression to say climate is increasing every 10 years by 0.22. The equation they were using was something roughly like y= mx +c with m value of 0.22 this equation will just grow and grow, until a large enough x value will return a y value hotter than the sun. Predictor v response is x and y. x is year y is climate.

The basic message is, climate is increasing by 0.22c every 10 years is gobsmackingly 💩 it was just typical woke Comradian climate alarmism. You can’t use linear regression to model non linear processes just nope.

The models they do use can’t predict backwards or forwards accurately. For example, give the model an input value and roll it backwards, it does not match observed values.

When they have used the models to predict it has come out as too hot, someone now saying not hot enough 🤣 any claim they make on these models is questionable.

All the funding goes into proving climate science, anyone who objects is an out cast why there is “100% agreement” not because the science is settled otherwise the models would work! This is not how science should work.

The fundamental issue is sensitivity to initial conditions, chaos theory, cloud formation is chaotic and massively affects climate modelling. They cannot and will not ever be able to get around this fundamental truth.

We can observe climate has increased over the last 100 / 150 years sure but on a geological scale it’s a fart in the wind. I’d love to live for the next few hundred years to see how this plays out! There are plenty of reasons to move away from fossil fuels climate modelling not one for me.
I get your point, no modelling is perfect and scientists know and understand it. Its those using the modelling results to push their political opinion we should be criticising.

I'm guessing you don't agree with the suggestions that you're calling woke, as woke is now used as an insult. I am irritated by wokism - I don't disagree with woke views very much, but its the sanctimonious virtue signalling I find that irritates me most.

The weakness in a lot of science research is that it relies on funding from people that come with an agenda or strings attached. I disagree that "most" funding is from those pushing to show climate change. The oil and energy companies in the middle East and especially the US plough money in to try to find data to deny it.

Youth roght that on a geological scal what is happening now is trivial. Life and the planet will survive. However, knowing humans as I do I am convinced that human civilisation will not survive it. Humans abhor free movements if other humans, and as climates become intolerable there will he attempted mass migration that will be resisted and result in war. I would predict that the UK will become uninhabitable (ice aheet) and we will be the migrants.
 
They were modelling climate change with linear regression to say climate is increasing every 10 years by 0.22. The equation they were using was something roughly like y= mx +c with m value of 0.22 this equation will just grow and grow, until a large enough x value will return a y value hotter than the sun. Predictor v response is x and y. x is year y is climate..
Wrong

Linear regression is used to identify certain relationships within the data. It is not employed in the model to determine the outcome of climate change.

There is not one model used to identify climate change, like you’re making out in your posts.
 
Oh, is he getting stuff massively wrong again?

Astonishing news!
Yeah, thousands of actually qualified scientists, experts in their field spending their entire life to the subject, have just had their entire life’s work blown apart by a lad who claims to have BSc, uses emojis to express emotions and goes on dates with woman for food and beer
 
That is a valid point, but not quite what I was saying or hinting at.

They were modelling climate change with linear regression to say climate is increasing every 10 years by 0.22. The equation they were using was something roughly like y= mx +c with m value of 0.22 this equation will just grow and grow, until a large enough x value will return a y value hotter than the sun. Predictor v response is x and y. x is year y is climate.

The basic message is, climate is increasing by 0.22c every 10 years is gobsmackingly 💩 it was just typical woke Comradian climate alarmism. You can’t use linear regression to model non linear processes just nope.

The models they do use can’t predict backwards or forwards accurately. For example, give the model an input value and roll it backwards, it does not match observed values.

When they have used the models to predict it has come out as too hot, someone now saying not hot enough 🤣 any claim they make on these models is questionable.

All the funding goes into proving climate science, anyone who objects is an out cast why there is “100% agreement” not because the science is settled otherwise the models would work! This is not how science should work.

The fundamental issue is sensitivity to initial conditions, chaos theory, cloud formation is chaotic and massively affects climate modelling. They cannot and will not ever be able to get around this fundamental truth.

We can observe climate has increased over the last 100 / 150 years sure but on a geological scale it’s a fart in the wind. I’d love to live for the next few hundred years to see how this plays out! There are plenty of reasons to move away from fossil fuels climate modelling not one for me.
@verreauxi
 
Hahaha...I'm done arguing with clowns on here. Not worth it.

He's trying to sound smart about something as simple as linear regression and seems to imply that climate scientists only use first order linear regression to model climate, and that they haven't considered things like time-series models or non-linear models or sensitivity to initial conditions, etc. etc. Not gonna jump into this WUM's universe.
 
Hahaha...I'm done arguing with clowns on here. Not worth it.

He's trying to sound smart about something as simple as linear regression and seems to imply that climate scientists only use first order linear regression to model climate, and that they haven't considered things like time-series models or non-linear models or sensitivity to initial conditions, etc. etc. Not gonna jump into this WUM's universe.
Aye, but thought it might make you chuckle
 
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