Current Affairs The Labour Party

[davek]

There's just that burning issue Dave that a big number of safe labour seats voted overwhelmingly to leave.

If they commit to remain, they'll lose the majoirty of those voters to Johnson or the Brexit Party, surely?

Unless they're expecting the people who have been called thick (mostly by students and hipsters with beards and those stupid illustrations of themselves as profile photos on twitter) for the last three years to change their minds. Don't get me wrong, I think some of them will have changed their minds. But I don't think it'll be a majority of them. I'm from one of the safest Labour seats in the country (or at least it was in the last gen election), and it voted to leave.

Yes, that will be a tough sell on the doorstep in those places for Labour. But Labour will lose seats and gain others with a change in policy.

The bigger problem is the Tories. A Brexit Party in the field in 625 constituencies as they now state they are, tips over a lot of seats to Labour and the Lib Dems.

One other factor is that the Tory Party morale is low, and there's not a lot of love lost between a load of Tory candidates and their Conservative Associations who will do their canvassing. On the other hand, the LP ground offensive is formidable. They have over half a million members and hundreds of thousands of those will be door to door and engaging with the electorate. The younger vote is likely again to be as high as it was last time too (especially if Labour are running on a ticket of a second referendum, which they will be...and possibly endorsing Remain).

I know there's a lot of vox pops on the telly showing angry people who just want to leave Europe, but I reckon there is a silent majority out there petrified of its consequences. The media are underestimating it and the Tories...who usually benefit from the more reserved electorate...will be fully aware of that.

I said the other day that I think the real proportion of people who want out of the EU now on a clean break is no more than circa 30% of the electorate. I stand by that. The election result when it happens will see a big majority for the parties who dont campaign on a no deal ticket. A coalition around that will be the outcome. What happens after that when Brexit is sorted is another matter.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

So you want a 'hard-brexit' now?

Thankfully, and you know better than me, it seems that the eu see the Tory-US geopolitical maneuvering/attack for what it is, something that isn't a majority opinion in Parliament (and on the wane) , and when writ large, unpopular with the citizens.

No, I think the EU accept that the governments of both UK and US are not representative of the populations of both countries, and there are obviously a great many people and institutions in both that are still absolutely fantastic. The problem is we have a decent number of Brexit Party MEPs whose sole aim is to be a nuisance in Brussels, and a government who have shown utter contempt for the EU throughout this whole affair, whether through their unprofessional manner, their abuse of the truth or their general grandstanding for their domestic Brexiter base. Tusk didn't hide his contempt for people like Johnson, but I'm not sure that they hold the Labour front bench in 'much' higher esteem (obviously it's hard to be held in lower esteem than the Tories right now), but if someone poops on your carpet, them coming back with an air of ambivalence isn't exactly going to mend bridges, you know?

 

[BlueToff]

No, I think the EU accept that the governments of both UK and US are not representative of the populations of both countries, and there are obviously a great many people and institutions in both that are still absolutely fantastic. The problem is we have a decent number of Brexit Party MEPs whose sole aim is to be a nuisance in Brussels, and a government who have shown utter contempt for the EU throughout this whole affair, whether through their unprofessional manner, their abuse of the truth or their general grandstanding for their domestic Brexiter base. Tusk didn't hide his contempt for people like Johnson, but I'm not sure that they hold the Labour front bench in 'much' higher esteem (obviously it's hard to be held in lower esteem than the Tories right now), but if someone poops on your carpet, them coming back with an air of ambivalence isn't exactly going to mend bridges, you know?

Throw into that you have what Thornberry said yesterday. That if there was a GE, and Labour got in, then she'd actively campaign against a deal she would be responsible for trying to negotitiate with the EU.

 

[orchard]

No, I think the EU accept that the governments of both UK and US are not representative of the populations of both countries, and there are obviously a great many people and institutions in both that are still absolutely fantastic. The problem is we have a decent number of Brexit Party MEPs whose sole aim is to be a nuisance in Brussels, and a government who have shown utter contempt for the EU throughout this whole affair, whether through their unprofessional manner, their abuse of the truth or their general grandstanding for their domestic Brexiter base. Tusk didn't hide his contempt for people like Johnson, but I'm not sure that they hold the Labour front bench in 'much' higher esteem (obviously it's hard to be held in lower esteem than the Tories right now), but if someone poops on your carpet, them coming back with an air of ambivalence isn't exactly going to mend bridges, you know?

There's a lot of work ahead, especially regarding the divots we sent as mep's. Have they turned around to face the right way yet?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

There's a lot of work ahead, especially regarding the divots we sent as mep's. Have they turned around to face the right way yet?

Huge amounts. I think people can accept different ideologies, providing people behave in a proper manner. Honesty, a degree of capability etc. The last few years have been the opposite of that.

 

[davek]

Just watching it now, she's horrible.

I'm not saying that because I disagree with her. Johnson is a liar.

But she just comes across as a horrid, angry person.

The remain voter at the start who had a go at them all, and she just sits there arms cross shaking her head with utter contempt. Sickening.

She's a poor communicator who gets people's backs up. Labour should have had Long-Bailey or Angela Rayner on there who have half a clue how to reach most normal people.

It's not a hard sell at the end of the day: look at where we are after the Tory Party gave in to their own crazies in that party and got the Brexit nightmare going in the first place. It really isn't that difficult.

 

[davek]

That more to do with questions being posed, because the many journalist will go along the lines, Johnson wants out, why are Labour plans not as clear and concsise, like the Conservative Government, they show leadership direction (despite continuing heading into car crash). And on and on, much of the TV news is appealing to the lowest common denominator...

Of course, but she's a front bench politician and should be adept enough to deal with that agenda. She's had enough practice.

 

[edge]

She's a poor communicator who gets people's backs up. Labour should have had Long-Bailey or Angela Rayner on there who have half a clue how to reach most normal people.

It's not a hard sell at the end of the day: look at where we are after the Tory Party gave in to their own crazies in that party and got the Brexit nightmare going in the first place. It really isn't that difficult.

That could be a big problem for Labour Davek as right now the public focus is all on the tories,when we go towards a GE the likes of her and Abbott will be in the public veiw again the party needs to sharpen up.

 

[gonetomorrow]

Throw into that you have what Thornberry said yesterday. That if there was a GE, and Labour got in, then she'd actively campaign against a deal she would be responsible for trying to negotitiate with the EU.

Best solution would be for her not to be involved in any negotiations in the first place.
It's a dilemma that several of them would face, however.

 

[I Miss Chang]

That could be a big problem for Labour Davek as right now the public focus is all on the tories,when we go towards a GE the likes of her and Abbott will be in the public veiw again the party needs to sharpen up.

Maybe, but the same was true in 2017. Generally, Labour seems to benefit from greater attention, particularly when the election coverage laws force the media to report on their policy ideas (which, apart from on Brexit, are overwhelmingly popular, often even among Conservative voters), rather than whether or not Jeremy Corbyn sat up straight, respected the troops/Queen/flag, is a Czech sleeper agent etc.

Labour's economic approach is also overwhelmingly supported by professional macroeconomists, 82 of whom have taken the FT to task:

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Maybe, but the same was true in 2017. Generally, Labour seems to benefit from greater attention, particularly when the election coverage laws force the media to report on their policy ideas (which, apart from on Brexit, are overwhelmingly popular, often even among Conservative voters), rather than whether or not Jeremy Corbyn sat up straight, respected the troops/Queen/flag, is a Czech sleeper agent etc.

Labour's economic approach is also overwhelmingly supported by professional macroeconomists, 82 of whom have taken the FT to task:

There was no coincidence that labour had a surge in the polls after they were given a platform to put there policies out there. Also think Corbyn comes across well in interviews and debates.

 

[edge]

Maybe, but the same was true in 2017. Generally, Labour seems to benefit from greater attention, particularly when the election coverage laws force the media to report on their policy ideas (which, apart from on Brexit, are overwhelmingly popular, often even among Conservative voters), rather than whether or not Jeremy Corbyn sat up straight, respected the troops/Queen/flag, is a Czech sleeper agent etc.

Labour's economic approach is also overwhelmingly supported by professional macroeconomists, 82 of whom have taken the FT to task:

I am voting for them as i did last time,
But they will be under scrutiny more than they have for years , really need to get it together , likes of thornberry saying she will go to Europe do a deal then vote agaist it is frankly madness.
need to get a clear message out there and stick to it,Europe will be one of the biggest things in an election, its things like the above that will cost them votes .
Corbyn as i said the other day made a really good speach in Salford hardly a thing in the press.

 

[I Miss Chang]

I am voting for them as i did last time,
But they will be under scrutiny more than they have for years , really need to get it together , likes of thornberry saying she will go to Europe do a deal then vote agaist it is frankly madness.
need to get a clear message out there and stick to it,Europe will be one of the biggest things in an election, its things like the above that will cost them votes .
Corbyn as i said the other day made a really good speach in Salford hardly a thing in the press.

Yes, they are certainly prone to unforced errors, alas.

But I hope their economic programme will once again resonate, because they are by some distance the only party with a grasp on the scale of reform this country needs to recover from decades of economic self-harm - which generated the current tide of alienation, extremism, and Brexit.

I hope that Remainers in constituencies where Labour is competing against Farage and the Tories will come to their senses, and realise that a Labour victory is public's the only prayer of deciding whether to accept the final deal, while a vote for the Lib Dems or Greens in effect guarantees No Deal.

And I hope that Leavers in constituencies where Labour is competing against Farage and the Tories will likewise come to their senses, and both recognise that Labour has bent over backwards in the face of overwhelming pressure to preserve a compromise that respects the referendum, and that Labour is still only party that gives a damn about the victims of Tory/Lib Dem austerity.

 

[Number_25]

I'm not concerned about the Brexit Party. Rarely does a GE ever revolve around a single subject, and I'm sure that'll be the case here.

 

[davek]

That could be a big problem for Labour Davek as right now the public focus is all on the tories,when we go towards a GE the likes of her and Abbott will be in the public veiw again the party needs to sharpen up.

The campaign will be on leaders...it's been going that way for years and we have that horrible Americal presidential feel about our GEs now.

More broady though on this appeal to normal people: it's going to be a massive strain on tribal loyalties in may northern vote Leave areas. The Lp face a moment of truth there. But, IMO, when an election gets going and lasts 5 weeks or so, the Brexit issue will be vying for attention with more basic bread and butter issues over public spending and who the public trusts to spend cash to get the country back up and running again after 9 years of Tory austerity. Johnson knows that and it's why he's been advised to go all out the last few weeks promising to open up the purse strings, for the north and midlands especially. Personally I think that appeal falls on deaf ears; most people who vote Labour aren't going to risk trusting the Tory Party run by this feller to come through on their promises...he's already know as a liar on so many other occasions in any case, so there's evidence to back up those fears.

In short: I dont think the Tory strategy (and Brexit Party strategy for that matter) to take swathes of constituencies from Labour is going to be half as successful as they hope.