Current Affairs The Labour Party

[zzr45]

they won Canterbury, Tory since the 19th century

Thanks in part to 8,000 students who were registered in the days up to the election. Having been promised free tuition in something that didn't quite add up. A lot like 350m being painted on the side of a bus.

The point that @The binman chronicles makes stands though. You look at these outliers where Labour just edged in and it tends to be here either the incumbent MP had acted the fool, or there'd been a shift in local demographics which made one element attractive. There's nothing that suggests a shift towards love of the policies of Corbyn's Labour from the wider population is actually happening.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

they literally won Kensington

I think that was down to @The Esk tbh.

 

[Walken]

I think that was down to @The Esk tbh.

He predicted a Tory win online?

 

[abelard]

Thanks in part to 8,000 students who were registered in the days up to the election. Having been promised free tuition in something that didn't quite add up. A lot like 350m being painted on the side of a bus.

The point that @The binman chronicles makes stands though. You look at these outliers where Labour just edged in and it tends to be here either the incumbent MP had acted the fool, or there'd been a shift in local demographics which made one element attractive. There's nothing that suggests a shift towards love of the policies of Corbyn's Labour from the wider population is actually happening.

I hadn't realised the university was established between 2015 and 2017? And I guess if it was students who voted, they don't actually get to hold the seat?

No, the point is nonsense. There was no 'shift in demographics' in Canterbury - they won over the students, who hadn't bothered to turn up before, precisely because of their policies. This is exactly how you convert the other side's heartland.

Their gains came in a range of diverse places, many of which were bellweathers - prosperous Southern towns, deprived Northern towns like Keighley or Colne Valley, remote parts of Wales, Portsmouth South (for the first time in history, and not because of any students)... And apart from what they actually gained, they also came within striking distance in dozens of constituencies - Hastings, for instance - which don't fit any of your patterns, and which is why the Tories and the media are demonstrably terrified that Corbyn can actually win.

 

[abelard]

I will concede though, to be fair, that thanks to Tory education policy, the University of Kent may no longer exist by the time the next election comes around...

 

[zzr45]

I hadn't realised the university was established between 2015 and 2017? And I guess if it was students who voted, they don't actually get to hold the seat?

No, the point is nonsense. There was no 'shift in demographics' in Canterbury - they won over the students, who hadn't bothered to turn up before, precisely because of their policies. This is exactly how you convert the other side's heartland.

Their gains came in a range of diverse places, many of which were bellweathers - prosperous Southern towns, deprived Northern towns like Keighley or Colne Valley, remote parts of Wales, Portsmouth South (for the first time in history, and not because of any students)... And apart from what they actually gained, they also came within striking distance in dozens of constituencies - Hastings, for instance - which don't fit any of your patterns, and which is why the Tories and the media are demonstrably terrified that Corbyn can actually win.

There had been a shift in demographics - 8,000 students who hadn't been registered to vote suddenly became eligible to do so in the weeks leading up to it. It meant that an MP that had focused on local issues, particularly those of the blue rinse brigade, suddenly found themselves completely out of touch with the demographics that would be voting.

The last election was actually a great demonstration of how politics has changed - for example the fact that students were suddenly eligible thanks to a small group promoting awareness and how smaller, more local matters came to the fore again. The media isn't the weapon it once was.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

She would do well along with Howey Smith et al and look at Corbyn when he was a back bencher, that's how you challenge leadership's. And if the local party want to challenge so be it. And all sittting MPs should be up for reselection before general election.

 

[tsubaki]

Surely that is more to do with the leader and front bench rather than a backbencher who has done her job by getting elected in her constituency?

What Labour needs is the policies to appeal outside of the heartlands and they have shown nothing that indicates that is happening.

Her constituency is an absolutely safe Labour seat though, and prior to 2010 she had no / very little connection to it. I think the CLP are entitled to make sure she still enjoys their confidence.

 

[tsubaki]

When the bloke who proposed her for deselection has used Zionist as a descriptor for her in the past, you'd think given the recent troubles the party has had, this may not be the best idea.

No, and anyone who uses the term Zionist in ways like that should be questioned, but there are two motions of no confidence on the agenda for that meeting - not just the one proposed by that dodgy bloke.

As McDonnell said this morning, if she is being targeted because of her stance on anti semitism then that is a disgrace, though there are alternative views on why she is facing these motions.

 

[tsubaki]

She would do well along with Howey Smith et al and look at Corbyn when he was a back bencher, that's how you challenge leadership's. And if the local party want to challenge so be it. And all sittting MPs should be up for reselection before general election.

If there is a criticism of the CLP, it’s that motions of no confidence are clumsy tools for these times.

What they should have done (if possible) is asked any Labour MP who is mooting that they might quit to join a new party whether or not they are. If they are, or if they don’t confirm it either way, the CLP should be well within its rights to look for a new candidate.

 

[dwightschrute]

Thanks in part to 8,000 students who were registered in the days up to the election. Having been promised free tuition in something that didn't quite add up. A lot like 350m being painted on the side of a bus.

The point that @The binman chronicles makes stands though. You look at these outliers where Labour just edged in and it tends to be here either the incumbent MP had acted the fool, or there'd been a shift in local demographics which made one element attractive. There's nothing that suggests a shift towards love of the policies of Corbyn's Labour from the wider population is actually happening.

Nationalization of the railways and water have huge public support in polls, as does taxing companies more, even people paying more tax for better public services has shown positive polling (though Labour say only the top 5% will pay more tax in the last manifesto), tuition fees are obviously popular with young people and I imagine (opinion not fact) that the minimum £10 wage suggested would be popular; these were all the main policies of Corbyn's Labour. Labour easily had the best manifesto and their policies could definitely be a vote winner (thanks to the great work of McDonnell and his policy advisors).

Though I think this is a moot point as most voters I doubt read manifestos or read deeply into issues and a lot is on local issues or even just the leader image. Now this is obviously where the problem lies as Corbyn is polarising with a mixture of genuine concern from some who wouldnt vote for him as they dont think he would make a better PM than May/next tory leader, and also some who buy into the scare stories as we have one of the most right wing dominated groupthink media in Europe

 

[Bruce Wayne]

No, and anyone who uses the term Zionist in ways like that should be questioned, but there are two motions of no confidence on the agenda for that meeting - not just the one proposed by that dodgy bloke.

As McDonnell said this morning, if she is being targeted because of her stance on anti semitism then that is a disgrace, though there are alternative views on why she is facing these motions.

Aye, it's quite possible that she's simply rubbish at her job and so on, but the party have shown quite considerable naivety under Corbyn's leadership to leave themselves open to accusations that they need not have been open to.

 

[tsubaki]

Aye, it's quite possible that she's simply rubbish at her job and so on, but the party have shown quite considerable naivety under Corbyn's leadership to leave themselves open to accusations that they need not have been open to.

In some cases yes, though its extremely questionable whether there is anything that could be done that wouldn't be criticized by the usual suspects. For example Labour could be backing a 2nd referendum this time next week and I bet the likes of Chris Leslie will be telling all and sundry that Corbyn is way out of touch, he should be demanding article 50 be cancelled etc.

 

[DanEFC92]

 

[The binman chronicles]

That's what should have happened the moment it emerged. Just a shame it took so long and if it had come from Corbyn himself it would have garnered some much needed kudos.