Current Affairs The General Election

Voting Intentions

  • Labour

    Votes: 209 61.1%

  • Tories

    Votes: 30 8.8%

  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 20 5.8%

  • Brexit Gubbins

    Votes: 8 2.3%

  • Greens

    Votes: 8 2.3%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • Change UK, if that's their current moniker

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • SNP

    Votes: 4 1.2%

  • DUP

    Votes: 3 0.9%

  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 2.6%

  • Alliance

    Votes: 4 1.2%

  • SDLP

    Votes: 2 0.6%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 4 1.2%

  • Some fringe party with a catchy name

    Votes: 7 2.0%

  • A plague on all your houses

    Votes: 32 9.4%
  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .

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davek said:
The founder of the poll methodology clearly was hedging his bets yesterday on its accuracy when presenting it. I think he knew that the figures they released (the timing of their data) had missed out on reflecting a definite turn in the polls following the timing of their fieldwork.
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My experience of these people is it's not so calculated. They are quite a self important, at times ignorant set of people.

By chance the YOUGOV MRP got it close to being right last time. That looks increasingly like a stab in the dark. It was actually because they got the top line figure correct.

The prediction was consistent with all the other companies predictions thus far. We are seeing herd mentality with the election predictors now, who refuse to accept anything other than 2017 being a one off, and it being solely down to May being awful.

I did state all this at the time in 2017. I remember saying May was awful and these same experts sneer and make out she was the most popular PM since Thatcher, and I was a crazy Corbynite in a bubble. Now they preach the same thing back to me, without a word of humility of how wrong they were, not just that how bad she was, but how that singularly means it can never happen again.

Behind closed doors, the people that matter, Cummings and his team are majorly freaking out currently. They have no idea how Corbyn remains so popular.

There is the potential for the 2019 result to be more out than the 2017. If it proves to be, wait for the tantrum that follows.
 
evilwebby said:
1/20 to win the most seats, about 4/11 to win a majority.

YouGov have published their election forecast:
Con: 359
Lab: 211

(majority 68)

yougov.co.uk

YouGov UK: Data Analytics & Market Research Services

Explore YouGov's market research and data analytics services for valuable insights. Make informed business decisions with our consumer analysis & intelligence.
yougov.co.uk yougov.co.uk

Worth paying attention to Yougov.. they are pretty sharp and got it dead right last time.
Click to expand...
YouGov is headed up by a couple of Con party activists Stephan Shakespeare and Nadhim Zahawi.
Politically biassed?
 
evilwebby said:
1/20 to win the most seats, about 4/11 to win a majority.

YouGov have published their election forecast:
Con: 359
Lab: 211

(majority 68)

yougov.co.uk

YouGov UK: Data Analytics & Market Research Services

Explore YouGov's market research and data analytics services for valuable insights. Make informed business decisions with our consumer analysis & intelligence.
yougov.co.uk yougov.co.uk

Worth paying attention to Yougov.. they are pretty sharp and got it dead right last time.
Click to expand...

They were badly out last time in their conventional model, but the MRP was close because it showed a racially different toppling figure to other pollsters and was massively out of line with other predictors. It was also done much closer to the election (most of the field work for this began over 3 weeks before the election was due).

To be honest the numbers were not so striking this time. They stacked up with Britain Elects and Electoral calculus, who on the day it was released actually revised the seat prediction for the tories downwards and labour upwards.

That is the trend here. The question is really going to be how far that trend continues.

the top line figure of 11% already looks well out to me. Consecutive polls have shown the lead to be around the 7% mark currently. If that were to bet in to the MRP model it's unlikely the tories could form a minority, never mind majority government.

I understand they will run it again next week, this will likely be closer.
 
roydo said:
He did. He was asked where 100 million trees a year, (his target) would be planted. He said farms, our new national parks, and open spaces. Sommet like that, and the 100 million might be wrong.

Point I am making is that in an election, Green Stuff isnt really a vote decider. If it really floats your boat above everything, Greens it is. For the other 98% of folk, knowing your party is arsed about it should slake your appetite.
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I think you are right, and thats the worry for Lab. The same worry cons have talking about the NHS. You say you care about the NHS, people go "oh thats nice, it's obviously an important issue I'd better make sure I vote for Labour". Kind of similar with green stuff, it could well lead to people voting Greens.

The only caveat I'd offer, is that it's one of the key differentiators on age this question. For younger people this is a major concern about how we move forward. It's one of the most important election issues.

I don't think it will massively harm he tories in this election, as frankly they have very little support of young people, but as a wedge issue they always felt green issues were a way they could rebuild amongst younger people. I think stunts like not turning up to the debate will hit them in the medium term.
 
Bruce Wayne said:
Not often I agree with him, but he's spot on.
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It's a shrewd move from Mcdonnell and expect a lot more of it until the BBC agrees a deal with Johnson and Neil. It's telling that after this interview they actually rejected the offer for a Marr interview.

This is a massive get out of jail card for any Labour MP who needs a pivot with any BBC employee (and to a degree the Lib Dems too). You immediately put the BBC on the back foot. I can imagine they will be privately seething and putting enormous pressure on Johnson to arrive. It may also be they have to seriously consider an empty chair scenario to get him to go in.

Johnson probably thinks he's been clever doing this, but all I see, is that if and when he is interviewed there is going to be enormously more scrutiny that before.
 
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