Current Affairs The General Election

[Milkman]

Swerving Andrew Neil isn't he, what an absolute craphouse he is, do we really want a bloke running the country who can't face a 30min interview with a journalist.

Same with Javid, he's swerved a debate with McDonnell, last two elections now not one current Chancellor wants to debate with McDonnell.

The two most powerful and important positions in government should be scrutinised on TV for the public to see, no backbone in the Tory leadership whatsoever.

And yet the tabloids have the nerve to say Corbyn is the weak leader.

It's so depressing to think that the people who'll be most negatively impacted by a Tory government are the people whose votes will likely make it happen.

 

[Blue 1]

Pretty disgusting gaslighting from Gavin Williamson re: Channel 4 this morning.

Johnson showing on LBC this morning he hasn't the first clue of any detail of his party's policy.on anything. He even had to pause when asked "Would you rather be PM or take leave the EU?".

Absolute slimeball.

 

[Connor]

 

[DanEFC92]

 

[catcherintherye]

The most effective politician of the last decade

@catcherintherye

I would love it if this were the end of Farage. He's sitting this election out. There is plenty of distance yet to run with this Brexit negotiation and I wouldn't rule him out making a comeback.

 

[catcherintherye]

This is brilliant from McDonnell and we should see more of it, particularly as a pivot when any Labour MP/leader is in trouble with the BBC. You can see how uncomfortable they aren when the truth is pointed out to them.

 

[catcherintherye]

Didn't May do a similar thing? It just makes them look weak when not being able to respond.

Yes she did and yes it did. This will not play well for them if he avoids the interview. You have to factor in, most conservative minded voters/people like Andrew Neil and will struggle to understand why he avoids speaking to him.

 

[Blue 1]

I would love it if this were the end of Farage. He's sitting this election out. There is plenty of distance yet to run with this Brexit negotiation and I wouldn't rule him out making a comeback.

He's only being relatively quiet because he wants a Tory victory.

 

[Milkman]

The only good kopite.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Yes she did and yes it did. This will not play well for them if he avoids the interview. You have to factor in, most conservative minded voters/people like Andrew Neil and will struggle to understand why he avoids speaking to him.

Hopefully more is made of it and we can get a chance of a hung parliament. At the end of the day the BBC are chasing ratings and by not having Johnson on the programme lowers those figures. It would be good if they can put out a few headlines that they are avoiding scrutiny which must mean there are flaws in policy and character.

 

[catcherintherye]

Those registration numbers aren't reflected in the super dooper "MRB" poll either....which was also done a week or so ago and doesn't reflect where we are now as much.

Yougov weightings are one of the harshest against 2017 as well. Easily 6 points differential, potentially more if 2017 levels of turnout from all groups are kept the same.

Factor in as well more than one Poll has always moved to 7% difference (from the 11% they are working from) and there have been swings shown from 3-7% in the week this MRP has been conducted, which again puts us around the 7% phase).

So essentially you have 2 options. One is that the polls are say upwards of 6% out, the other is that the polls have moved say 4% in the last week. Both could also be true, but what would be the impact if one where the case?

On this model, a 2.5% swing (so a 5% closing from Con to Lab) would move 67 seats from Con-Lab on this prediction. Not only is that enough to prevent a Tory Majority government, probably wipe out any chance of a Tory minority government, we would be looking at a situation whereby the Tories were potentially not even the biggest party.

There are still two weeks to run as well. Where Labour really started piling swings up last time. It's easy to see why the tories and Cummings are getting increasingly agitated.

If Labour get within 6% they are winning seats back net on this model.

 

[Blue 1]

Ferrari actually gave Johnson a bit of a kicking there. Was pleasantly surprised. Bet Johnson wasn't.

 

[catcherintherye]

Hopefully more is made of it and we can get a chance of a hung parliament. At the end of the day the BBC are chasing ratings and by not having Johnson on the programme lowers those figures. It would be good if they can put out a few headlines that they are avoiding scrutiny which must mean there are flaws in policy and character.

The BBC clearly has a pro Tort bias. However they also have their own agenda, which is to compete against other broadcasters. A bg set piece of that has always been a tough interview, traditionally with Paxman now with Neil. If the PM refuses to do it, it will do lasting damage for them going forward and it will likely cause future elections to see leaders refusing to turn up to do it.

 

[catcherintherye]

Ferrari actually gave Johnson a bit of a kicking there. Was pleasantly surprised. Bet Johnson wasn't.

Not great, when a right wing Tory, with a largely right wing audience is ridiculing him.

 

[davek]

The founder of the poll methodology clearly was hedging his bets yesterday on its accuracy when presenting it. I think he knew that the figures they released (the timing of their data) had missed out on reflecting a definite turn in the polls following the timing of their fieldwork.