The binman chronicles
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It's dodgy ground the Tories are on really not turning up. While there is a bias between the BBC and the Tories, the key point is it's not supposed to ever look absolutely explicit. In such cases it loses it's affect.
If he doesn't turn up, the BBC's competitors will be all over it. Piers Morgan and Sky News (both essentially Tory outfits) will see opportunity to attack the Tories and the BBC on their hypocrisy. Morgan has already started down that line.
You also have to factor in, that this is Neil's big moment. If this year Johnson pulls out and see there is no consequence, don't expect anybody to ever do an interview with him or potentially the BBC again.
So I could see a scenario where they empty chair him, and Neil reads out a list of failures that he'd like to ask Johnson about. It would be prime TV.
If he doesn't turn up, also factor in this will be a major talking point. I'm sure each opposition leader if pressed will pivot back to it- however bad you think I am at least I am brave enough to turn up. It kind of reduces the damage of a bad interview.
So in many ways I hope they try to pull out. People are very aware of it now.
It's a lose lose either way, as if he turns up, he will be wholly embarrassed as well.
Didn't May do a similar thing? It just makes them look weak when not being able to respond.
