Current Affairs The General Election

[Bruce Wayne]

Election periods really are grim. This 50,000 nurses issue is a prime example. In any large employer, but especially one where stress and burnout are so high, reducing the churn rate would be seen as an overwhelmingly good and sensible thing to do. Not only are those who leave typically more experienced than new recruits, but they've usually been well onboarded on how things work, the various processes involved and all that. Eminently sensible to do that, both for practical reasons and also by virtue of the fact that you'd probably be making the work environment less stressful, which is valuable in and of itself.

Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but because whichever Tory dimwit announced this stated that there would be 50,000 'new' nurses, there have been weeks of utter drivel arguing about the maths of that when over 1/3 of that number would actually come from trying to reduce the number who leave.

Throw in the charade yesterday with Corbyn trying to claim that paying more for drugs is akin to the NHS being privatised and you can kinda see why the NHS lurches from apparent crisis to crisis as it's become this giant political football kicked around by people whose sole purpose is to win votes rather than deliver the best service to society.

 

[peteblue]

Anyway, taking all these polls with a pinch of salt, Labour have shot themselves in the foot over Brexit....

 

[peteblue]

Election periods really are grim. This 50,000 nurses issue is a prime example. In any large employer, but especially one where stress and burnout are so high, reducing the churn rate would be seen as an overwhelmingly good and sensible thing to do. Not only are those who leave typically more experienced than new recruits, but they've usually been well onboarded on how things work, the various processes involved and all that. Eminently sensible to do that, both for practical reasons and also by virtue of the fact that you'd probably be making the work environment less stressful, which is valuable in and of itself.

Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but because whichever Tory dimwit announced this stated that there would be 50,000 'new' nurses, there have been weeks of utter drivel arguing about the maths of that when over 1/3 of that number would actually come from trying to reduce the number who leave.

Throw in the charade yesterday with Corbyn trying to claim that paying more for drugs is akin to the NHS being privatised and you can kinda see why the NHS lurches from apparent crisis to crisis as it's become this giant political football kicked around by people whose sole purpose is to win votes rather than deliver the best service to society.

Totally agree, It is an absolute disgrace.....

 

[OnlyBlueWillDo]

I said months ago several times in this thread the next time there is an election Labour are going to get a kicking, I'm hoping it's not true but they've turned their back on 5m Labour leave voters, there are lifelong Labour voters everywhere considering voting Tory because of brexit, my own parents are going that way.

Take brexit out of this election, had we already left this year, Labour had a great chance with that manifesto.

 

[OnlyBlueWillDo]

Anyway, taking all these polls with a pinch of salt, Labour have shot themselves in the foot over Brexit....

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Said it months ago Peter they'd get a kicking, not surprised if a Labour collapse happens, they've alienated 5m Labour brexit voters.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I did 5 minutes of digging about this morning. There are around 320,000 nurses in the NHS at the moment, of which roughly 32,000 are said to leave the profession each year. As Hancock said this morning, a chunk of those are of retirement age or have other reasons for leaving, but a decent number will leave because of stress, burnout and all that, which is perhaps where they got their 18,000 figure from.

Ordinarily, they'd need to hire 32,000 nurses a year just to maintain numbers, but if you obviously reduce those leaving then you can grow the total workforce. It's poorly explained for sure, and you do have to have a degree of cynicism that they're only bothered about reducing churn during an election rather than over the past decade, but it shouldn't be 'that' difficult to understand.

 

[larrygobfiend]

The new polls are probably correct. The Tories will mop up the marginals because of Brexit.

The next decade will be a painful one.

 

[davek]

The big question is, in those Labour leave seats are people going to go into the voting booth and follow through with voting Tory? It´s a huge moral dilemma and I think the Tories know that support from this type of voter isn´t nailed on.

I also think you can factor in some shy Labour supporters this time. They won´t shout about it from the rooftops but on the day they´ll choose Corbyn as what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils.

Because of the right wing PLP, the LP are on the wrong side of a historic debate. They'll suffer because of it. Will that translate to an overall 68 majority for the Tories? No chance.

Polling is weaponised. This one is no different. And let's face it, unless you are a psephologist, the chances of you knowing wtf the "MRP" poll was this time yesterday was nil.

The LP were always going to have to throw all their artillery at the Leave areas in the final weeks of this election. Expect that to have the effect of shoring those areas up. The LP have collapsed the LibDem and they pose less of a threat now. So they'll turn to the threat in Leave areas a lot more.

Hung parliament or just a handful of seats from one will be the final result.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I did 5 minutes of digging about this morning. There are around 320,000 nurses in the NHS at the moment, of which roughly 32,000 are said to leave the profession each year. As Hancock said this morning, a chunk of those are of retirement age or have other reasons for leaving, but a decent number will leave because of stress, burnout and all that, which is perhaps where they got their 18,000 figure from.

Ordinarily, they'd need to hire 32,000 nurses a year just to maintain numbers, but if you obviously reduce those leaving then you can grow the total workforce. It's poorly explained for sure, and you do have to have a degree of cynicism that they're only bothered about reducing churn during an election rather than over the past decade, but it shouldn't be 'that' difficult to understand.

And I say this fully aware that it's quite possible that the Tories deliberately said new rather than more in an attempt to make it sound grander and score more votes. It doesn't escape the fact that what should have been quite a sensible policy has descended into tribal squabbling because of the tits we have trying to convince us to vote for them.

 

[abelard]

I said months ago several times in this thread the next time there is an election Labour are going to get a kicking, I'm hoping it's not true but they've turned their back on 5m Labour leave voters, there are lifelong Labour voters everywhere considering voting Tory because of brexit, my own parents are going that way.

Take brexit out of this election, had we already left this year, Labour had a great chance with that manifesto.

I'm sure you're right, but 'take Brexit out of this election' is also a pointless fantasy.

Had Labour not come up with a plausible path to Remain, everyone in the country under 50 would have felt betrayed in exactly the same way that Labour Leave constituencies still feel betrayed by Blair.

And the overwhelming consensus among under-50s for the version of Labour that Corbyn alone has enabled can not be so carelessly squandered, come what may in December.

The bigger risk is that if Labour does lose, it will be carte blanche for the geniuses responsible for 2015 and the Remain campaign to resume hurling aspiring McKinnsey consultants at constituencies like Bolsover, then congratulating themselves for being better mannered than greater sub-London when this fails, yet again.

A platform centered on modernising the economy is the only thing that can unite left-behind towns and the underemployed and indebted students that the former aren't entirely wrong to loathe.

And although Corbyn is a flawed vehicle for articulating this, it is also thanks solely to him among prospective Labour leaders circa 2015 that the solution even emerged in the first place.

PS - do ensure that your parents smarten up.

 

[peteblue]

Because of the right wing PLP, the LP are on the wrong side of a historic debate. They'll suffer because of it. Will that translate to an overall 68 majority for the Tories? No chance.

Polling is weaponised. This one is no different. And let's face it, unless you are a psephologist, the chances of you knowing wtf the "MRP" poll was this time yesterday was nil.

The LP were always going to have to throw all their artillery at the Leave areas in the final weeks of this election. Expect that to have the effect of shoring those areas up. The LP have collapsed the LibDem and they pose less of a threat now. So they'll turn to the threat in Leave areas a lot more.

Hung parliament or just a handful of seats from one will be the final result.

How will they address the leave areas, apart from telling lies and saying that there won’t be a second referendum....

 

[abelard]

How will they address the leave areas, apart from telling lies and saying that there won’t be a second referendum....

Look at your take-home pay. Look at the state of your local school. Look at the state of your local hospital. Look at your high street.

Are you happy with how things have changed over the past ten years? Then vote Tory.

If you're not, then vote for Real Change™ instead.

 

[Joey66]

Anyway, taking all these polls with a pinch of salt, Labour have shot themselves in the foot over Brexit....

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I would take them with a pinch of salt - no way are they correct Labour will not lose 51 seats imo.....

 

[neil999]

How will they address the leave areas, apart from telling lies and saying that there won’t be a second referendum....

i think the strategy will be that a big tory majority will be worse than brexit(hence NHS focus)

 

[Joey66]

This damage was caused by the previous Labour government. The Tories, as is always the case after a Labour government, had to pick up the pieces, again. This pit of hatred and bile only emanates from the left and those who have forgotten what democracy is and wish to overturn a referendum.

The Tories have created jobs. Work is consistently proven to be the best route out of poverty and while social security plays an important role in providing support for those in emergencies, it does not offer the answers to solving poverty in the long term. When you get people back working, generating money and not taking handouts, this gives an increased tax take which provides more money for the really vulnerable and disabled....

Pete the financial crash left the country without any Money - Labour had to bail the banks out, but I agree the borrowing plans of McDonnell are way OTT - Austerity was a dogma ideology that Osborne thrived on, he and Cameron have a lot to answer for ......they should take their pensions off them - also how about the Waspi Men they lost out after paying NI too and having their pensions put back a year .....Labours position on Brexit has been a disaster at first Corbyn was sitting on the fence now the fence has broken and is sliding up his arsp ....
That's what will gift the election if it happpens to the Tories ......plus the Brexit party giving way .......I have no one to vote for, but until Labour get back to the centre ground Corbyn and Momentum have to go......