Current Affairs The Conservative Party

[Catfish Blues]

Was that in the same report? Just making sure we're comparing apples with apples.

From the actual report ...

We collected data on health and social care resources and finances for England from 2001 to 2014. Time trend analyses were conducted to compare the actual mortality rates in 2011–2014 with the counterfactual rates expected based on trends before spending constraints

So, without looking at in any detail, it appears they looked at the whole data from 2001 to 2014, and saw an increase from 2010.
Like any statistical analysis, you have to be careful, because if you start off looking for a trend, you increase your chance of seeing a trend, but, on the face of it, they look like they've come up with something which is real

Their conclusion is

We have found that spending constraints since 2010, especially PES, may have produced a substantial mortality gap in England. Our analyses demonstrate that if demand-side solutions are infeasible, large improvements in efficiency or, more feasibly, spending above growth in demand (and not just general inflation) are required to close this gap. We suggest that spending should be targeted on improving care delivered in care homes and at home; and maintaining or increasing nurse numbers.

Lets face it, that's not rocket science. We have an ageing population, older people are more likely to be ill, and possibly die from those illnesses, and the population is ageing at a rate quicker than just inflationary budget increases ( never mind below inflation increases ) will, on their own be able to cope with. So you either make the system more efficient ( the obvious macro solution being to pull social care and the NHS closer together ), spend more, or accept that older people will die earlier than they would if they had better care.

 

[peteblue]

Was that in the same report? Just making sure we're comparing apples with apples.

No, I‘d read it is a separate report. The ONS show similar in that while deaths have gone up, the death rate per 100,000 of population has fallen below the 2002-2010 rate.....

Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths by age, sex, selected underlying causes of death and the leading causes of death. Contains death rates and death registrations by area of residence and single year of age.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[Bruce Wayne]

No, I‘d read it is a separate report. The ONS show similar in that while deaths have gone up, the death rate per 100,000 of population has fallen below the 2002-2010 rate.....

Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths by age, sex, selected underlying causes of death and the leading causes of death. Contains death rates and death registrations by area of residence and single year of age.

www.ons.gov.uk

There's a similar report from a think tank whose name I forget (it's often cited in protestations about the effects of austerity). It too suggests there have been more deaths during the post-recession period, but it doesn't use absolute figures, but rather suggests that there were more than would have been expected had previous trends continued. That would explain your ONS stats, which simultaneously show that the death rate has fallen, but because it's fallen less than we should have expected, it's still leaving considerable room for improvement.

 

[Barnfred 55]

( the obvious macro solution being to pull social care and the NHS closer together

I've never understood why this has never been done or, as far as I'm aware, even discussed as a possibility. It would make perfect sense to me because at least it would stop the ongoing wrangle between local councils and NHS over hospital beds being taken up.

There is no doubt that, with people living longer and the rise in dementia, billions more needs to be thrown at long term care. The law needs a complete overhaul too, especially surrounding the funding.

As part of this I'd look at putting an extra 10% onto Inheritance tax and ring fencing it for LTC (knowing the money is going towards long term care may soften the blow to the bequeathed).

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I've never understood why this has never been done or, as far as I'm aware, even discussed as a possibility. It would make perfect sense to me because at least it would stop the ongoing wrangle between local councils and NHS over hospital beds being taken up.

There is no doubt that, with people living longer and the rise in dementia, billions more needs to be thrown at long term care. The law needs a complete overhaul too, especially surrounding the funding.

As part of this I'd look at putting an extra 10% onto Inheritance tax and ring fencing it for LTC (knowing the money is going towards long term care may soften the blow to the bequeathed).

That's not a million miles from the policy that was branded the 'dementia tax'.

 

[Barnfred 55]

They were directly campiagned for by the brexit campaign

Not sure what you meant by the highlighted bit mate.

Still don't agree with your view that the Tories and Brexit campaign willingly opened their doors to these right wing thugs though. The Tories ban anyone affiliated with right wing groups from becoming members (whilst I concede their vetting procedures need tightening up) and even Farage distanced himself from UKIP once that party was infiltrated.

Since then UKIP has effectively become defunct so they now are seemingly having a go at infiltrating the Tories. Rather than welcoming them I think you'll find they'll be doing their best to weed them out and expel them. I believe they are more embarrassed by what's happened.

As regards Johnson, nowhere have I said that he has suddenly become honest. The man is an opportunist and a consummate liar. That hasn't changed. But just because he is very good at lying doesn't mean that every single word that comes out of his mouth is a lie, although it does obviously makes it very difficult to believe anything he says. The reason I think he'll keep to (at least some of) the promises he made to the North is that he knows damn well he'll lose that vote if he doesn't. So it's in his own interest to if he wants to stay in power, which I believe he does.

 

[Barnfred 55]

That's not a million miles from the policy that was branded the 'dementia tax'.

I know.

I actually didn't think that was as bad as the press were making out at the time. It certainly wasn't worse for the less well off. At the moment savngs and property are looked upon separately. Under the proposed dementia tax rules the persons assets were looked at collectively, and they would have been allowed to retain the first £100k of value.

Nearly 40% of people n the UK don't own their own homes. If they also have more than £15k in savings they have to essentially pay the cost of their own care, whether that be at home or in a nursing home. They are entitled to an attendance allowance (basically a government handout) towards the cost of the care, which will probably just about cover the cost of a couple of home visits a day from a carer. If they go into a home, you pay the full cost of the nursing home until your savings go below £15k. Then the local council take over the bill paying but will, in doing so, take all your pension income and DSS allowances bar about £20 pw which you are allowed as pocket money for incidentals.

The rules for homeowners is rather complicated but essentially local social services can force the sale of the house with the funds being used towards care costs. Obviously difficulties arise if parties are still living there etc so it could become quite complex.

 

[Walken]

Not sure what you meant by the highlighted bit mate.

Still don't agree with your view that the Tories and Brexit campaign willingly opened their doors to these right wing thugs though. The Tories ban anyone affiliated with right wing groups from becoming members (whilst I concede their vetting procedures need tightening up) and even Farage distanced himself from UKIP once that party was infiltrated.

Since then UKIP has effectively become defunct so they now are seemingly having a go at infiltrating the Tories. Rather than welcoming them I think you'll find they'll be doing their best to weed them out and expel them. I believe they are more embarrassed by what's happened.

As regards Johnson, nowhere have I said that he has suddenly become honest. The man is an opportunist and a consummate liar. That hasn't changed. But just because he is very good at lying doesn't mean that every single word that comes out of his mouth is a lie, although it does obviously makes it very difficult to believe anything he says. The reason I think he'll keep to (at least some of) the promises he made to the North is that he knows damn well he'll lose that vote if he doesn't. So it's in his own interest to if he wants to stay in power, which I believe he does.

with respect, if you ever criticize johnson you qualify it shortly after which doesn't make for much of a critique. Johnson won a majority with the most dishonest campaign i can remember, he has zero fear of lying or destroying lives as it won't affect his popularity, which in itself is a insult to humankind.

The highlighted bit is unbelievably self evident and I've no intention of trawling through the bigoted nature of the brexit campaign

 

[Catfish Blues]

I've never understood why this has never been done or, as far as I'm aware, even discussed as a possibility. It would make perfect sense to me because at least it would stop the ongoing wrangle between local councils and NHS over hospital beds being taken up.

I can't remember her name, but there was a woman in charge ( or had recently been in charge ) of something like an NHS trust in the Midlands being interviewed on Newsnight three or four years ago, who explained that the competing needs and policies of the NHS and the Social Services caused as many problems as they solved.

Her solution was quite simple and was to, at local level, make one person / position be responsible for balancing the priorities for the aged in both the care system and the NHS. I don't think I've ever heard someone speak so much common sense on the subject. If she, or people like her, are listened to by Johnson, then they might actually achieve something. Not holding my breath on that though.

 

[davek]

Protesters in London call for Cyprus boycott on eve of sentencing

Activists shout ‘we believe her’ in solidarity with woman convicted of lying about rape

www.theguardian.com

The scumbag Tories failing to get involved in the case of that British girl raped by 12 Israeli citizens in Cyprus. She gets jail, they get off scot-free.

Appalling.

 

[witchdoc187]

Protesters in London call for Cyprus boycott on eve of sentencing

Activists shout ‘we believe her’ in solidarity with woman convicted of lying about rape

www.theguardian.com

The scumbag Tories failing to get involved in the case of that British girl raped by 12 Israeli citizens in Cyprus. She gets jail, they get off scot-free.

Appalling.

She's been pardoned hasn't she? I was reading reviews of the hotel she was in on to advisor don't think she's the first to have suffered there

 

[davek]

Attention all serfs:

"At cabinet Boris Johnson and the chancellor, Sajid Javid, also unveiled a plan for what was described as “tough decisions” on spending ahead of March’s budget and the subsequent spending review."

As you were warned, you were had off. Mugs.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Attention all serfs:

"At cabinet Boris Johnson and the chancellor, Sajid Javid, also unveiled a plan for what was described as “tough decisions” on spending ahead of March’s budget and the subsequent spending review."

As you were warned, you were had off. Mugs.

Elitist scum (or something)

 

[davek]

Elitist scum (or something)

I agree.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I agree.

You agree that calling people serfs is something elitist horrors would do?