Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

[davek]

I ended up getting into a prolonged discussion about Biden a while back, with interesting points on either sides. In terms of a short term move, Biden made a lot of sense. They lost in 2016 because they ran a woman for President, who was married to probably the most successful Democratic President and followed on from 8 years of a black president. Trump could whip people up into an anti-woman, anti- black, anti- sleeze (Clinton) block.

That's just a lot harder to do with an old, white, fairly moderate/conservative man. The attacks on Kamala Harris have failed. The attacks of saying he's a pupped for the left have failed. I'm not sure what else Trump has. I know it sounds harsh, but he's not black, he's not a woman and he's from the South of America, so for middle America they are just not angry towards him.

I would have gone Sanders, and I still think Sanders wins, but probably has to do so in a different and riskier way. Trump would at least have more amunition against him. He has nothing against Biden. He calls him old, which has stuck, but I'm not sure that really angers people in the same way.

Biden will face a medium term challenge though. He is going to be flanked by the left and the right in America and put under enormous pressure from day 1. There's no time for complacency with the Democrats. Unless there is major reform, there is a big medium term risk of the far right re-emerging.

I dont think many would view Biden as a two term president. He's going to be a president that serves his purpose in wrenching the keys away from a dangerous force. There will, as you imply, be a more polarised and ideological choice for president in 2024.

 

[catcherintherye]

The stuff about the mailed in votes and the general questioning of the ballot security was unbelievably poor strategy by Trump. I know he's been talking about it for weeks and months, but this near the election and in a head to head presidential debate it makes him look like he's conceded the result already, and that seeps into his potential vote amongst the uncommitted. If you were still wondering where to put your vote before an election would you think it was worthwhile handing it to Trump when he's virtually saying the only chance he has is to get the result into the Supreme Court to contest?

Yes nail on head that.

There's a lot of paranoia about him "stealing the election". I do understand why the Dems are using it (for reasons I'll outline below) but to me the greater risk should always have been he would just win the election. I did worry for a time people were losing site of that a bit. However his actions seems to be of a man who feels he can't win now.

For the Dems it makes sense to make a big thing of it. Orthodox Republicans may just be put off by it (20-25% apparently are concerned to very concerned which is around 10-13% of his vote share) but also you feel it will be a big vote suppresser. If the towels thrown in why bother to vote?

The flip is this is motivating Dems to vote earlier and in greater numbers. I saw something on C4 yesterday that essentially stated a big part of the Trump plan from the data he obtained was voter suppression for the Dems. It's always been the same for the Tories too, while there will be churchillian rhetoric, their plan is essentially to suppress voters from opponents, who can be a bit flakey. He won in 2016 on the basis of the vote not turning out for Clinton. This escapade is having the reverse affect. People are voting more now, at a time he is 7-8 points behind, and less on polling day when he may have theoretically closed the gap. It's complete lunacy.

My sense would be, his campaign team is just filled with yes men who tell him what he wants to hear.

 

[Tubey]

That's ignoring the fact that Biden is accpetable to corporate America and he wont scare the horses. That's how he came though and got the Democratic nomination. Pragmatism. The Democrats saw a sitting duck president who they only need to play a straight bat against to force a win. If anyone left of Biden got the nomination we'd likely be seeing a greater examination of their character and policy and the attack on Trump would have been weakened. I mean that's the trade off in the Democratic camp I would have thought; not that I agree with that, but there was a logic to it...and it will pay off in terms of getting the keys to the WH.

I agree with nearly all of that, except to say that it was an unnecessary risk and will only pay off due to COVID. Without it, and no decimated economy etc. Biden wouldn't have stood a chance.

He wasn't a sitting duck president until very recently.

Even now, I wouldn't confidently put money on a Biden win, which is shocking. It's the most open goal in American political history.

 

[catcherintherye]

I dont think many would view Biden as a two term president. He's going to be a president that serves his purpose in wrenching the keys away from a dangerous force. There will, as you imply, be a more polarised and ideological choice for president in 2024.

The plan for the Democrats would surely be for Harris to run. That is good contigency planning. I mean I don't tend to look at things through the narrow lens of electoralism, but if you did that plan makes a lot of sense.

I'm sure people like AOC will want to run, but at this point it's hard to look beyond Harris- who performed very well in the debates too.

 

[Death]

I still can't believe these are the candidates the two major parties are trotting out.

It’s very believable who the Democratic Party pushed for. Biden will serve corporate America his track record is stellar. Follow the Money, follow the power find Biden.

 

[catcherintherye]

I agree with nearly all of that, except to say that it was an unnecessary risk and will only pay off due to COVID. Without it, and no decimated economy etc. Biden wouldn't have stood a chance.

He wasn't a sitting duck president until very recently.

Even now, I wouldn't confidently put money on a Biden win, which is shocking. It's the most open goal in American political history.

I'm not sure on that though. I mean Covid probably hasn't helped, but most Trump supporters don't see it as a big issue.

The main point is, Trump is a maniac who whenever he opens his mouth turns people off.

 

[Prevenger17]

I don't see it that way. I just see two forms of incompetence - ones through stupidity, selfishness and greed, the other through age, upbringing and capability. One may be more "evil" than the other, sure, but incompetence is at the core of them both.

"He's not Trump" isn't a good enough reason to elect someone IMO. It's a condemnation of the Dems that he's their best candidate; as I've said all along, it's not enough to just vote against something, you have to give people a reason to vote for something.

I think it's quite mad if you can't see the difference tbh. Biden has decades of public service and a successful stint as a VP behind him. His best days may be behind him but he's clearly someone capable of doing a job. The other is a complete nutter who has presided over the world's worst coronavirus response and whose biggest achievement was being the host of a TV show about business despite being a complete failure in business. Biden is competent, Trump an absolute goof. In a one on one, there is simply no comparison.

Also I think you're wrong on the last part, voting to remove Trump from the White House is voting for something on this rare of occasions

 

[catcherintherye]

The problem is it's very difficult to say hand on heart that Biden should be instead.

That went exactly how I thought it would, and the problem is it played to Trump's strengths.

All the Dems needed was someone "normal" against Trump, especially in the midst of crisis after crisis. Someone competent, so the contrast was obvious. Instead, they've put a 77-year-old establishment member up against him and, while not senile, is clearly just a bit past his sell by date.

I hope and pray Biden gets through, but I'd happily see Biden make no more appearances whatsoever until election day.

I'm really not sure it did play to his strengths though. Early polling show he's lost the debate, quite heavily. His image from a low base has taken a hit, while Bidens has seen a sharp uptake. We will obviously get more polling over coming days which may reverse this, but initial polling show it was disaster for Trump.

I think his strengths are the image/idea people have of him. Quite dynamic, successful, pragmatic etc. I am not so blinded I can't see strengths. He's a good talker too, great for TV etc. However when faced with the reality of him, they get turned off. To me he dialled that up to the max tonight.

I think more on the economy, more on make America Great Again, less rudeness, less lies, more giving Biden rope to hang himself rather than interupting him, more reaching out would have worked far better for Trump.

Objectively people will just feel sorry for Biden, and think Trump is a knob, which when you're behind does very little for you.

 

[davek]

Yes nail on head that.

There's a lot of paranoia about him "stealing the election". I do understand why the Dems are using it (for reasons I'll outline below) but to me the greater risk should always have been he would just win the election. I did worry for a time people were losing site of that a bit. However his actions seems to be of a man who feels he can't win now.

For the Dems it makes sense to make a big thing of it. Orthodox Republicans may just be put off by it (20-25% apparently are concerned to very concerned which is around 10-13% of his vote share) but also you feel it will be a big vote suppresser. If the towels thrown in why bother to vote?

The flip is this is motivating Dems to vote earlier and in greater numbers. I saw something on C4 yesterday that essentially stated a big part of the Trump plan from the data he obtained was voter suppression for the Dems. It's always been the same for the Tories too, while there will be churchillian rhetoric, their plan is essentially to suppress voters from opponents, who can be a bit flakey. He won in 2016 on the basis of the vote not turning out for Clinton. This escapade is having the reverse affect. People are voting more now, at a time he is 7-8 points behind, and less on polling day when he may have theoretically closed the gap. It's complete lunacy.

My sense would be, his campaign team is just filled with yes men who tell him what he wants to hear.

IMO this wont even be close. Trump's task is to make it close, contest it, lose that contestation in court and leave office a hero of the right wing.

I can honestly see that debate, if anything, putting more distance between the two.

 

[catcherintherye]

IMO this wont even be close. Trump's task is to make it close, contest it, lose that contestation in court and leave office a hero of the right wing.

I can honestly see that debate, if anything, putting more distance between the two.

I suspect Biden could start pulling away a bit. Clinton saw a bounce after the debates last time. Obama won by 7.3% in 2008 and was comfortably home and dry. Thats where Biden is at currently. It could go larger. I am inclined to think that is a better possibility than it closing now.

 

[davek]

I suspect Biden could start pulling away a bit. Clinton saw a bounce after the debates last time. Obama won by 7.3% in 2008 and was comfortably home and dry. Thats where Biden is at currently. It could go larger. I am inclined to think that is a better possibility than it closing now.

That performance from Trump last night excites only his rabid base; the periphery of his support (and certainly undecided voters) may just be lost to him right now.

Biden is a duffer on the evidence of that last night (but he will do better). But even acknowledging that, he doesn't have to do anything other than prod and poke a bit at Trump to get the job done.

 

[catcherintherye]

IMO this wont even be close. Trump's task is to make it close, contest it, lose that contestation in court and leave office a hero of the right wing.

I can honestly see that debate, if anything, putting more distance between the two.

They could stick a scarecrow across the room for Trump, and just allow Trump to talk inanely and it would help the Democrats on last nights performance.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Imagine seeing a gang called ‘proud boys’ walking about the street in camo. lol i might go to the states just to see it. Brilliant

 

[Tubey]

I think it's quite mad if you can't see the difference tbh. Biden has decades of public service and a successful stint as a VP behind him. His best days may be behind him but he's clearly someone capable of doing a job. The other is a complete nutter who has presided over the world's worst coronavirus response and whose biggest achievement was being the host of a TV show about business despite being a complete failure in business. Biden is competent, Trump an absolute goof. In a one on one, there is simply no comparison.

Also I think you're wrong on the last part, voting to remove Trump from the White House is voting for something on this rare of occasions

I do see the difference, I just said what was different.

But calling Biden competent? Sorry, but not for me. Just some old establishment guy who says "here's the deal" a lot.

 

[Prevenger17]

But calling Biden competent? Sorry, but not for me. Just some old establishment guy who says "here's the deal" a lot.

Tubes mate, there is no equivalency to be had here. I know you like to say everything is just two sides of the same coin, in a way you are GOT's ultimate in fence-sitting technology, but any attempts at drawing parallels between the two are just simple tricks of language (see the Cuco equation). Trump is a dangerous buffoon, comically unfit for the office of presidency. Biden might be a good president or might be a bad president in some people's eyes, but it's a matter of degrees and a much higher form of criticism. He, at the very least, has policy ideas and will surround himself with a competent administration.

Give me examples of his incompetence. And I mean exceptional, universal examples of incompetence that could go toe to toe with something on Trump's CV, not just a policy you didn't like or a time he tripped over his words. Because the fact that he says "here's the deal" a lot isn't selling this to me