Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

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Texans still going to the polls as though someone is handing out free tacos, barbecue and beer. It's mad. Likely to pass 7.75 million today with 5 more days of early voting and election day on 11/3.

Busted a Trumptard in my neighborhood this morning for putting out a sign he defaced himself intending to blame it on "duh libz". Gave him a choice, he could put it away and I'd not say a word to anyone around here or I'd take the photo I took of the sign from the camera on my phone and make him regret it.
 
LinekersLegs said:
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Taking that poll with a pinch of salt. Why? Because Joe Biden getting 73% of Hispanic women and 69% of Hispanics overall in Texas is an outlier. Not saying the poll is inaccurate as it's possible Biden could do that well but it's really, really difficult to poll Texas. It's so big, so diverse.

I'm also going to ignore the poll because if it IS true then, IMO, game over. No way for Cheeto to overcome that turnout math. And no fat ladies are singing in this man's house until all results are in.
 
BlueTX said:
Texans still going to the polls as though someone is handing out free tacos, barbecue and beer. It's mad. Likely to pass 7.75 million today with 5 more days of early voting and election day on 11/3.

Busted a Trumptard in my neighborhood this morning for putting out a sign he defaced himself intending to blame it on "duh libz". Gave him a choice, he could put it away and I'd not say a word to anyone around here or I'd take the photo I took of the sign from the camera on my phone and make him regret it.
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Please avoid the last bit of that. Yes, I know what the cult calls liberals and I‘ll call it out as well if I see it. I also know you mean no general harm by it.

That said, retard or variants of it are not words we want of the forum.
 
BirkenheadBlue said:
If you look at 538’s election forecast from 2016, Hillary actually was this far ahead when Comey wrote his horrifically ill advised letter and gave his press conference. The polls then tightened massively.


2016:
View attachment 105977

2020:
View attachment 105978the biggest differences are the other ones you mentioned, the consistency and stability of the polls this time, and the fact that large numbers of them have Biden at or over 50% and that there were far more undecideds in 2016.
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Yes and we know the polls were about 2% too kind to Clinton. So if you bake that in it's very different. She also had no sustained period of above 80% chance of winning like Biden has.

That is likelihood to win as well. If you look at polling, she was never so far ahead. She was given a higher chance as she had some incumbency attributed to her which Trump now gets. She also came off the back of the Dems benefiting from the EC in the previous two elections, whereas people now give that to Trump.

If you took the 2 point polling error off, they go into election day about 50/50.
 
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