The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[davek]

Obviously it is very unlikely that Labour will get a majority, but every extra Labour MP makes it more likely, and if there's one thing the Tories don't want, it's a Labour majority government.



Again, that's without question - but a confidence and supply arrangement would not last 5 years. It'll take Labour a few years to build up their cash reserves for another election, but who can afford a snap election later on this year or next year? The Tories.



Miliband wants a majority - he knows he probably won't get one, but anything that will win him more support in Scotland is in his best interests. The Telegraph article gives him a platform to win back Labour voters in Scotland and I can't think of any reason why the Tories would purposely give him that opportunity.

The LP might want an overall majority but they cant get it. If they cant get 4/5 points ahead of the Tories on the eve of the election campaign, they're defo not getting that gap during it. I think the whole strategy of the LP now has to be to sort out a likely coalition partner. They'd prefer the LDs, I'm sure, but I cant see it happening. Dont rule out the discipline of a LP/SNP coalition though on the major issues. No one could have foreseen just how much a LD party last time around could stick it out with the Tories. The SNP aren't a gang of yahoos. They are a very sophisticated party of government and they've led a multi-party system in Scotland, so they know what the score is in terms of give and take.

 

[Mrk]

The LP might want an overall majority but they cant get it. If they cant get 4/5 points ahead of the Tories on the eve of the election campaign, they're defo not getting that gap during it. I think the whole strategy of the LP now has to be to sort out a likely coalition partner. They'd prefer the LDs, I'm sure, but I cant see it happening. Dont rule out the discipline of a LP/SNP coalition though on the major issues. No one could have foreseen just how much a LD party last time around could stick it out with the Tories. The SNP aren't a gang of yahoos. They are a very sophisticated party of government and they've led a multi-party system in Scotland, so they know what the score is in terms of give and take.

I don't disagree with any of that, but the SNP have already ruled out a coalition with Labour, and there is no way a confidence and supply arrangement could last 5 years - the Tories will probably be the largest party, so even if a Labour/SNP deal does have enough for a majority, the Tories will have enough MP's to quickly destabilise the alliance.

 

[SpurtingLesbian]

This is what I thought when I first heard about it, but if you think about it, it doesn't make any sense - the Tories want the SNP to wipe Labour out in Scotland, so leaking stories that the SNP secretly back the Tories would only increase Labour support in Scotland, surely?

Labour jumped on it massively and look even more like idiots now. The Tories kept quiet on it. Squabbles between SNP/Red Tories make the Blue Tories look the safer bet.

 

[SpurtingLesbian]

I don't disagree with any of that, but the SNP have already ruled out a coalition with Labour, and there is no way a confidence and supply arrangement could last 5 years - the Tories will probably be the largest party, so even if a Labour/SNP deal does have enough for a majority, the Tories will have enough MP's to quickly destabilise the alliance.

The Blue Tories have still failed to rule out a deal with the fascists nutjobs they spun out of their party and helped set-up so they could drive the agenda even more to the right.
The Tory paymasters are laughing their socks off.

 

[The Mighty Quint]

It's all win for the SNP, no majority govenment they will hold some power by voting with or against Labour to run the country, Conservatives win, SNP will gather even more support in the next 5 years as the Tories implement more cuts, probably putting another devolution vote on the cards.

I can honestly believe Sturgeon/Salmond sees it like this also, like I say, win win.

 

[Mrk]

The Blue Tories have still failed to rule out a deal with the fascists nutjobs they spun out of their party and helped set-up so they could drive the agenda even more to the right.
The Tory paymasters are laughing their socks off.

Are the blue Tories a faction within the Tory party?

And who are the fascist nutjobs?

 

[sd_1992]

It's all win for the SNP, no majority govenment they will hold some power by voting with or against Labour to run the country, Conservatives win, SNP will gather even more support in the next 5 years as the Tories implement more cuts, probably putting another devolution vote on the cards.

I can honestly believe Sturgeon/Salmond sees it like this also, like I say, win win.

They lost the battle when it came to the referendum, but they have certainly won the war overall. The Lab/SNP (minority) government will see so much cash and resources diverted up there (probably at the expense of northern england) that they will be far better off than they would have been if they were independent.

 

[harry]

The Blue Tories have still failed to rule out a deal with the fascists nutjobs they spun out of their party and helped set-up so they could drive the agenda even more to the right.
The Tory paymasters are laughing their socks off.

Who? Is there a new party i dont know about?

 

[SpurtingLesbian]

They lost the battle when it came to the referendum, but they have certainly won the war overall. The Lab/SNP (minority) government will see so much cash and resources diverted up there (probably at the expense of northern england) that they will be far better off than they would have been if they were independent.

Scotland pays in far more than it takes out of the UK due to the Barnett formula and in the future will be shat on not only by the Tories (like anything north of Watford), but by Labour as well (who up here are hardcore, pro-austerity, Blairite Red Tories until they are ousted at the next election) because neither have any hope of votes up here. It's the SNP and the Greens who are the only anti-austerity, anti-privatisation options up here. It saddens me deeply that people south of the border don't even have that choice.

Depending on how it goes it wouldn't surprise me to see SNP candidates in the North of England in future (or an English off-shoot) to increase the effectiveness of the anti-Tory resistance at Westminster.

 

[SpurtingLesbian]

Who? Is there a new party i dont know about?

UKIP is financed by former Tory party grandees and hived off most of the anti European rebels and the extreme Right of the party who made them implode at every opportunity.
It helped make the Tories seem almost functional enough for some to vote for at the last election

 

[sd_1992]

Scotland pays in far more than it takes out of the UK due to the Barnett formula and in the future will be shat on not only by the Tories (like anything north of Watford), but by Labour as well (who up here are hardcore, pro-austerity, Blairite Red Tories until they are ousted at the next election) because neither have any hope of votes up here. It's the SNP and the Greens who are the only anti-austerity, anti-privatisation options up here. It saddens me deeply that people south of the border don't even have that choice.

Depending on how it goes it wouldn't surprise me to see SNP candidates in the North of England in future (or an English off-shoot) to increase the effectiveness of the anti-Tory resistance at Westminster.

The Barnett formula will not stop the SNP extorting Labour for more and more every time Labour needs their votes in Parliament, and given that neither party give two hoots about anything north of Watford it will of course be the north that suffers as a result, as all the big infrastructure/ housing projects and tax breaks for industry are diverted up to Scotland.

 

[SpurtingLesbian]

The Barnett formula will not stop the SNP extorting Labour for more and more every time Labour needs their votes in Parliament

that's not what I said. I pointed out that Scotland currently subsides he rest of the UK to some extent. Getting some of that back for any sort of investment would be a bonus, but nobody is expecting to get all the money we create back (which we would have had under Independence) so the rest of the UK would still be better off.

and given that neither party give two hoots about anything north of Watford it will of course be the north that suffers as a result, as all the big infrastructure/ housing projects and tax breaks for industry are diverted up to Scotland.

Remember that as well as the brutalisation the rest of the North of England has seen, We've had additional Investment/funding cut to 1) try to undermine the Scottish Parliament to try to get it to fail, and 2) money/jobs cut so they can offer it back as an incentive for not leaving the Union.
We shall soon purge ourselves of our Red Tories, so even a Labour Government (if they can ever cobble one together) wouldn't put any money North of the border as there are no votes for them here. At least Liverpool/Northern England would fair slightly better as that's where all their MP's would have to be.

 

[Tubey]

All of what you've just said is exactly what the Tories would prefer to a majority Labour government. There's a reason the Tories spent time spinning how well Nicola Sturgeon did after the debate.

As I said, the only people using the Telegraph story are Labour. I don't see why the Tories would gift Labour a chance to regain support in Scotland.

I don't think you're quite getting it - for Labour to win an overall majority at this point, they'd have to effectively wipe out the SNP, which at this point is impossible. Therefore, they won't mind the Scots voting SNP as it'd give greater confidence down south that a vote for Labour will mean keeping the Tories out of power.

As I said, it's a mindset issue, not an electoral map one. Labour will use the story as an attack on Tory dirty politics, and the reason they'll attack on it is because they want to defend the integrity of Sturgeon up north. Any doubt that the SNP and Labour won't support eachother is a win for Cameron.

The only hope the Tories have of winning at this point is to divide the SNP/Labour vote, as you'll see with the "Milliband in Salmond's pocket" propaganda campaign, because it means the SNP would be a marginalised support partner and they could gain a great coalition majority through UKIP and Lib Dem support.

 

[SpurtingLesbian]

As I said, the only people using the Telegraph story are Labour. I don't see why the Tories would gift Labour a chance to regain support in Scotland.

because it's a made up story and was proven to be so in under an hour. During that hour all Labour sources were tweeting/sharing it like crazy.
Now they are just stood there with their dicks in their hands looking like idiots.
Big arguments between the SNP and Labour 1) make it less likely they'd power share and 2) make the Tories look almost competent in comparison.

 

[davek]

I don't disagree with any of that, but the SNP have already ruled out a coalition with Labour, and there is no way a confidence and supply arrangement could last 5 years - the Tories will probably be the largest party, so even if a Labour/SNP deal does have enough for a majority, the Tories will have enough MP's to quickly destabilise the alliance.

If the Tories are the largest party it means nothing. They'd be well short of the number of seats (at this stage at least) that could hope to make life difficult for a determined coalition. And dont rule out some wording from Labour and SNP that gets around what they've said already on the issue of coalition. They've merely said there'd be no formal arrangement, which leaves a very wide road through which other pacts can be driven through and without breaking the promises of what they've said so far.