The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[roydo]

There's no way SNP/Tory coalition or even supply and confidence will happen, regardless of circumstance. The Scots would riot. The idea of that nation propping up the Tories will be intolerable.

Hard to imagine isnt it? Interesting times though.

 

[Tubey]

...unless they had another shot at independence or an almost total devolution. The Tories might well be desperate to hold on to power and in the long run a devolved Scotland would make it difficult for Labour to ever get in again.

What, independence so that they're ran by a party who backed the Tories? And you think the Tories would offer a referendum, meaning they would be single handedly responsible for the break up of the union if it happened?

Not. A. Chance.

 

[harry]

Alot of debate on here with differing views.

Let me make it easy for you “whoever you vote for and whoever wins, it doesnt matter. We will will be screwed anyway“.

 

[Eggs]

What, independence so that they're ran by a party who backed the Tories? And you think the Tories would offer a referendum, meaning they would be single handedly responsible for the break up of the union if it happened?

Not. A. Chance.

.....probably right, but I wouldn't put anything past any of them. Perhaps not even full independence in the definition of the word but an almost totally develove Scottish Parliament in return for SNP politicians having no vote in Westminister on English matters.

If the Scots get that they may not be too bothered about leaving us in a fix.

 

[Toffeelover]

As far as Sturgeon and Salmond are concerned it is Scotland first, in reality they do not give a tuppence for the Union. They will attempt to extract more concessions which will effectively mean Scotland might as well be independent. Also expect to see them pushing for another vote in 5 to 10 years time.

 

[Tubey]

As far as Sturgeon and Salmond are concerned it is Scotland first, in reality they do not give a tuppence for the Union. They will attempt to extract more concessions which will effectively mean Scotland might as well be independent. Also expect to see them pushing for another vote in 5 to 10 years time.

Doubt it. If they go in to supply and confidence with Labour, and a matter like a referendum came up and Labour refused to back a bill, or say Trident, then what are the SNP going to do? Go no confidence and let the Tories in through a new election? Yeah, I'm sure the Scots would forgive them for that.

Labour will pull their strings and the only concession would be the already agreed upon further devolution of tax powers etc. to Scotland, nothing more. Trident and a referendum are off the table immediately, because neither Labour or the Tories will be the party who give away our nuclear deterrent or break up our country; it'd be electoral suicide.

 

[roydo]

The only problem the SNP might have in negotiating any sort of arrangement, is one of their central, non-negotiable (apparently) policies is Trident.

They cannot look like they are ignoring, what for them, is a massive issue.

 

[roydo]

Haha! Me and Tubey were posting the same thing. Sort of. He put it better though.

 

[Tubey]

Haha! Me and Tubey were posting the same thing. Sort of. He put it better though.

I could write the speech for Miliband now:

"In 2015, Nicola Sturgeon promised the Scottish people that they would lock the Conservatives out of government. At the same time, Labour said that Trident or a further referendum are off the table in terms of negotiating in the event of a hung parliament. Today, Labour kept that promise; Nicola Sturgeon broke hers."

Then Labour mop up SNP votes en masse. SNP have nothing to back any threat if they don't get what they want, and it just so happens that what they want is politically impossible.

 

[davek]

....as long as the LD win sufficient seats. I suspect they will be decimated so perhaps SNP/Con might not he as daft as it sounds. Conservatives desperate to hold power giving SNP a 2nd shot at independence. Regardless, it's in the Tories interest to keep Labour out of Scotland so they might well be ready to give SNP some major concessions.

Could become very tactical and the SNP might not be playing a straight bat.

No chance of the SNP doing that. They owe their very popularity by being the party of opposition to the Tory led government down here. Imagine they proposed becoming their partners?! They'd be slaughtered overnight.

Labour and the SNP will do a deal. There's is no alternative for Miliband, and he hasn't ruled it out.

 

[roydo]

Yep. Wouldnt be surprised at that basic premise.

The way I see it, the SNP could either play daft political games and play to their home gallery, which would mean stalemate and English resentment, (not that they are fussed by that), or do a Lib Dem/Tory trick and say that in the national interest they are abandoning their manifesto for a new coalition with, probably, Labour.

As they have ruled out the second one, as have Labour, chaos and annoyance is on the cards in my book. And I said that months ago. Salmond will love it.

 

[davek]

Yep. Wouldnt be surprised at that basic premise.

The way I see it, the SNP could either play daft political games and play to their home gallery, which would mean stalemate and English resentment, (not that they are fussed by that), or do a Lib Dem/Tory trick and say that in the national interest they are abandoning their manifesto for a new coalition with, probably, Labour.

As they have ruled out the second one, as have Labour, chaos and annoyance is on the cards in my book. And I said that months ago. Salmond will love it.

I dont buy into this SNP wrecking ball theory.

They are a responsible party of government north of the border. They've been running Scotland for a decade either in coalition or on their own and they have, IMO, some of the best political minds in the country. They are far superior operators than anything down here.

If/when they get into UK government positions they will behave with professionalism. They'll drive through as much of Scotland's interests as possible but they wont be irresponsible. It wouldn't serve their best interests to be seen as anarchic.

 

[Tubey]

Yep. Wouldnt be surprised at that basic premise.

The way I see it, the SNP could either play daft political games and play to their home gallery, which would mean stalemate and English resentment, (not that they are fussed by that), or do a Lib Dem/Tory trick and say that in the national interest they are abandoning their manifesto for a new coalition with, probably, Labour.

As they have ruled out the second one, as have Labour, chaos and annoyance is on the cards in my book. And I said that months ago. Salmond will love it.

Playing to the home gallery is a deal with Labour. You've got to remember that the only reason anyone ever votes Labour in Scotland is to keep the Tories out - if the SNP can convince the electorate up there that a vote for the SNP - a Scottish only interest party - also keeps the Tories out, then they'll keep seats for life.

That's why they wouldn't back out of a supply and confidence deal no matter what, even if they were offered nothing for doing it. It'd be disastrous for the SNP if they failed in their support of Labour and locking the Tories out - their own electorate, after seeing them lose a referendum, would wonder what the bloody point of them is, and revert to voting Labour.

 

[Toffeelover]

Doubt it. If they go in to supply and confidence with Labour, and a matter like a referendum came up and Labour refused to back a bill, or say Trident, then what are the SNP going to do? Go no confidence and let the Tories in through a new election? Yeah, I'm sure the Scots would forgive them for that.

Labour will pull their strings and the only concession would be the already agreed upon further devolution of tax powers etc. to Scotland, nothing more. Trident and a referendum are off the table immediately, because neither Labour or the Tories will be the party who give away our nuclear deterrent or break up our country; it'd be electoral suicide.

Not for the SNP, Tubey. They will still be ruling in Scotland.

 

[Tubey]

Not for the SNP, Tubey. They will still be ruling in Scotland.

And would lose pretty much every seat in the country in the election after. They're not stupid short-termists up there; they'll play the long game. Supporting Labour will guarantee them the Scottish parliament majority for decades if done right - usurping Labour would essentially destroy them.