Current Affairs Stocks and shares and stuff

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

Of course the SEC takes manipulation seriously, that's their job. But on the claims of manipulation people make, these falls into two camps: direct misinformation, which spans everything from Cramer to Reddit; indirect misinformation, which amounts to false orders, etc., driving the animal spirits. So then people are saying false things to get people in a buying/selling frenzy? And traders are placing orders at arbitrarily low/high prices to affect volume and other trades?

I guess, but seems less than it's made out to be, or at least I'd be surprised true fraud happened as often as people suggest.

While I agree there are some wild theories of manipulation. It definitely does happen, a lot.

 

[SerenityNigh]

I guess for me it comes down to this: I only seem to read manipulation theories for the r/WSB sort, who claim that tradings are using their power to falsely manipulate the value of shares.

That sort of thing tempers my view and makes me want to ignore the entirety of it, although I know it still legitimately happens (maybe more advanced than old school boiler rooms, but even still these.)

As for crypto, IMO that's all worthless (or, pedantically, price unhinged from any possible underlying value) BS and I can't see why anyone buys this except for speculation. (And if I were a speculator, I'd be all over it.)

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

I guess for me it comes down to this: I only seem to read manipulation theories for the r/WSB sort, who claim that tradings are using their power to falsely manipulate the value of shares.

That sort of thing tempers my view and makes me want to ignore the entirety of it, although I know it still legitimately happens (maybe more advanced than old school boiler rooms, but even still these.)

As for crypto, IMO that's all worthless (or, pedantically, price unhinged from any possible underlying value) BS and I can't see why anyone buys this except for speculation. (And if I were a speculator, I'd be all over it.)

Both things can be true, r/WSB can have insane rambling theories AND there can be serious price manipulation it is not either or.

If you think crypto is all worthless BS then you don't understand it. simple as that.

 

[SerenityNigh]

If you think crypto is all worthless BS then you don't understand it. simple as that.

I would gladly learn more about this if you want to share. But as far as I can see it has no underlying value and is a commodity subject to the whims of supply and demand. The "technology," while very interesting, is not a value in itself (and in some cases the ledgers are becoming cumbersome and may begin to limit usefulness). At best it becomes a new type of fiat currency, but it seems a long way from this. IMO the only stable market for crypto is as a black market tender, but if governments and multinational banks take it seriously it will be tracked and taxed just like any other asset/commodity and I think that complicates/reduces its usefulness. I think there is a lot of future in credit delivery apps that can navigate/exchange multiple currencies, and maybe these can blend in crypto and help stabilize, but in its current form I can only see crypto as a bubble. Maybe I'm just a luddite and a fogey; that's entirely possible. But it looks to me like BS.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Both things can be true, r/WSB can have insane rambling theories AND there can be serious price manipulation it is not either or.

On this point, there's a huge difference between a stock tip ($GME is undervalued and has a decent fundamental analysis, you should buy it at $xx.xx or less), aggressive trading (the short outlays on $GME can be exploited under these conditions) and manipulation (if we hold $GME we can make its price increase.) No doubt r/WSB, like any hive of scum and villainy, will combine all three. And while aggressive trading toes the line between fair and manipulative, much of what results from these communities is outright manipulation. The "little guys" getting the "big guys." It's very much Spider Man meme material.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

I would gladly learn more about this if you want to share. But as far as I can see it has no underlying value and is a commodity subject to the whims of supply and demand. The "technology," while very interesting, is not a value in itself (and in some cases the ledgers are becoming cumbersome and may begin to limit usefulness). At best it becomes a new type of fiat currency, but it seems a long way from this. IMO the only stable market for crypto is as a black market tender, but if governments and multinational banks take it seriously it will be tracked and taxed just like any other asset/commodity and I think that complicates/reduces its usefulness. I think there is a lot of future in credit delivery apps that can navigate/exchange multiple currencies, and maybe these can blend in crypto and help stabilize, but in its current form I can only see crypto as a bubble. Maybe I'm just a luddite and a fogey; that's entirely possible. But it looks to me like BS.

Blockchains are just ledgers, slow expensive and inefficient ledgers. A centralized database for storing data is the way to go for basically every big company.

However, crypto/blockchain is very good for a couple of very important things. Decentralization and censorship resistance.

I think it is plain to see the corruption and inefficiencies of central banks & middlemen in general. Blockchain can remove inefficient middleman by using consensus protocols.

Moving money around the globe without crypto is a prime example of this inefficiency. You pay a lot of fees and you take on counter party risk. Crypto practically eliminates all of this.

People like to talk about the black market use for crypto but what they never state is how FIAT/cash accounts for ALL of the rest of that black market business. Drugs/guns/human trafficking is all primarily paid for with FIAT money.

It already is being taxed by HMRC and they treat them the same as stocks so you pay capital gains tax.

The insane amount of printing that central banks/governments are currently doing only increases the need/desire for crypto, they are the fastest and highest appreciating asset class in history bar none. Any claims of tulip mania in my opinion are fundamentally wrong.

 

[SerenityNigh]

The insane amount of printing that central banks/governments are currently doing only increases the need/desire for crypto, they are the fastest and highest appreciating asset class in history bar none. Any claims of tulip mania in my opinion are fundamentally wrong.

This is precisely the point--what is causing crypto to outpace other currencies in the world market? Currency values are intrinsically tied to borrowing (specifically repaying) power. If Whether a nation can afford to repay its debts, and what interest is it offering on its liabilities, this is how currency values/exchanges are determined (as well as other factors). Crypto has no fundamental borrow/repayment value, it's just an issued currency, but why is it then appreciating? Is it undervalued? It can't simply be the elimination of fees, that's a marginal gain, but crypto prices aren't marginal gains when you chart them. That's why it's a bubble.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

This is precisely the point--what is causing crypto to outpace other currencies in the world market? Currency values are intrinsically tied to borrowing (specifically repaying) power. If a nation can afford to repay its debts, and what interest is it offering on its liabilities, this is how currency values/exchanges are determined (as well as other factors). Crypto has no fundamental borrow/repayment value, it's just an issued currency, but why is it then appreciating? Is it undervalued? It can't simply be the elimination of fees, that's a marginal gain, but crypto prices aren't marginal gains when you chart them. That's why it's a bubble.

Do you think the US can afford to repay its national debt anytime soon?

'its just an issued currency' is basically describing the USD, they have printed an insane amount of dollars in the last year. Something like 35% of the total ever supply. They also removed the 10% limit for fractional reserve banking so they are literally creating this money out of thin air. At least bitcoin and other PoW issue new coins based on some computational work being done.

The elimination of fees is just one use case for crypto. Maybe the reason they have huge gains is that people are deserting legacy finance, that has shown itself to be a sham, for new digital currency, backed by maths and code instead of corrupt central banks.

People have been calling bitcoin a bubble for about 10 years - must be one of the biggest bubbles ever!

 

[SerenityNigh]

Maybe the reason they have huge gains is that people are deserting legacy finance, that has shown itself to be a sham, for new digital currency, backed by maths and code instead of corrupt central banks.

Ok, mate. Take a nap.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

Ok, mate. Take a nap.

Check the chart for yourself, helicopter money...

 

[SerenityNigh]

Check the chart for yourself, helicopter money...

I'm not arguing a chart of debt issues with you--you said maths and code are new technologies! As if the history of math, trade, and banking never existed! Are you aware the West uses Arabic numerals because people like Fibonacci encouraged adoption because it made trade easier to document? None of this crypto stuff is new! It may be that the US defaults on its debt liability, although I'm not sure that's what you're suggesting. That's certainly a measurable risk. But is crypto the salvation? No, and indeed it's far more likely to fail than the $USD.

"What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun."

 

[carolinablue232]

Do you think the US can afford to repay its national debt anytime soon?

'its just an issued currency' is basically describing the USD, they have printed an insane amount of dollars in the last year. Something like 35% of the total ever supply. They also removed the 10% limit for fractional reserve banking so they are literally creating this money out of thin air. At least bitcoin and other PoW issue new coins based on some computational work being done.

The elimination of fees is just one use case for crypto. Maybe the reason they have huge gains is that people are deserting legacy finance, that has shown itself to be a sham, for new digital currency, backed by maths and code instead of corrupt central banks.

People have been calling bitcoin a bubble for about 10 years - must be one of the biggest bubbles ever!

Not a chance on repaying the debt anytime soon. We keep ignoring it and pretending it’s not there. I get the low rates argument for recent borrowing, but we throw around the word Trillion like it’s nothing now.

Regarding Bitcoin, my primary concern is still regulation. I got to go to a speech a few years ago with someone from the fed and I actually asked him if the fed was paying attention. He basically said, “Yes, but it’s too small to care or do anything yet.” If it continues accelerating, what’s to stop governments from just regulating it out of existence?

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

Keep calling crypto a bubble and enjoy your tiny annual gains.

I'm not arguing a chart of debt issues with you--you said maths and code are new technologies! As if the history of math, trade, and banking never existed! Are you aware the West uses Arabic numerals because people like Fibonacci encouraged adoption because it made trade easier to document? None of this crypto stuff is new! It may be that the US defaults on its debt liability, although I'm not sure that's what you're suggesting. That's certainly a measurable risk. But is crypto the salvation? No, and indeed it's far more likely to fail than the $USD.

"What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun."

I did not say math and code are new technologies at all.

Crypto does not rely on corrupt central banks to verify transactions, or in the case of the fed right now, print money out of thin air for fun, further devaluing the currency.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

Not a chance on repaying the debt anytime soon. We keep ignoring it and pretending it’s not there. I get the low rates argument for recent borrowing, but we throw around the word Trillion like it’s nothing now.

Regarding Bitcoin, my primary concern is still regulation. I got to go to a speech a few years ago with someone from the fed and I actually asked him if the fed was paying attention. He basically said, “Yes, but it’s too small to care or do anything yet.” If it continues accelerating, what’s to stop governments from just regulating it out of existence?

I don't think they could regulate it out of existence, though if they see it as a threat to their FIAT system then they will try very hard to do so. That or they will start buying up crypto assets which what we are starting to see

 

[carolinablue232]

I don't think they could regulate it out of existence, though if they see it as a threat to their FIAT system then they will try very hard to do so. That or they will start buying up crypto assets which what we are starting to see

If they start sanctioning companies for either holding or accepting it, then they very well could IMO, at least at a large scale level.