2020/21 Marcel Brands

[Neiler]

Fair enough mate. But that doesn't exactly fit in with the horrible use of resources that we're still paying for comment.

As regards our disposals that window I too was saddened, but it would be wrong not to factor in that two of them didn't want to be here and we couldn't get a work permit for the other.

I mentioned the resources in my earlier post mate. https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/marcel-brands.111060/page-31 especially when it comes to central midfield, we have spent North of 100 mill on the position since hes been here and its only year three that we look to have a functioning line there.

You look at wage distribution to id say a few on here would be surprised who are highest earners are. Its not who you would presume nor our best players.

But its the player trading aspect to, we've turned Morgan, McCarthy players who cost close to 50 mill combined to players who we basically consider frees.

Things like the above are huge resource outgoings, for very little incomings. Its all well and good saying they werent going to this or that - but their value dropped under our management team.

I know where you are coming from, im not convinced those players were unhappy, presumptions were made in my opinion and i think we needed dough, which ultimately was poorly invested. It depends where you stand on the pragmatic spectrum really. I might be naïve but i think a role of director of football is in part saying to said players, look you have a big future here, here's the five year plan and here is where you fit into it, hang in there lad, your our man.

Like i say im open minded on Brands, ill critique and praise i think he has done some things well also.

 

[banno]

Long may Brands reign. All dof's will have hits and misses. Don't see Brands as the type of bloke to take full control and he rather teams up with managers rather than giving it the big I am. What a mess we were in when he arrived and slowly but surely he is turning the tide aided with a great manager. He will continue to have some misses but alongside hits as any DOF will. His negotiation skills are top drawer and we are starting to see us grow and hopefully challenge.

 

[blueblue]

We did waste an enormous amount of moneyand time has been lost as well.
Hopefully, Moshiri has learned that there is no substitute for a quality manager.

Going back to the loss of money for just a little while.

I think the current day value of Keane, Digne,Holgate,DCL and Richarlison compared to their original cost would swallow up a lot of the money lost on others.

 

[Lanolin]

For all those saying "he doesn't shop in January" maybe just because the only player to come in the last two Jan's was Branthwaite doesn't mean he won't next Jan if Carlo needs something.

January is also a bad window for value, everyone with a brain accepts that, but to prove that here are a list of our Jan signings from the windows up to Brands arriving:

Walcott - £20m
Tosun - £20m
Schneiderlin - £20m
Lookman - £8m
Niasse - £16m
Tarashaj - £4m

If that was out of keeping with our summer business it would be a good point. But it's not, so it isn't.

 

[catcherintherye]

I mentioned the resources in my earlier post mate. https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/marcel-brands.111060/page-31 especially when it comes to central midfield, we have spent North of 100 mill on the position since hes been here and its only year three that we look to have a functioning line there.

You look at wage distribution to id say a few on here would be surprised who are highest earners are. Its not who you would presume nor our best players.

But its the player trading aspect to, we've turned Morgan, McCarthy players who cost close to 50 mill combined to players who we basically consider frees.

Things like the above are huge resource outgoings, for very little incomings. Its all well and good saying they werent going to this or that - but their value dropped under our management team.

I know where you are coming from, im not convinced those players were unhappy, presumptions were made in my opinion and i think we needed dough, which ultimately was poorly invested. It depends where you stand on the pragmatic spectrum really. I might be naïve but i think a role of director of football is in part saying to said players, look you have a big future here, here's the five year plan and here is where you fit into it, hang in there lad, your our man.

Like i say im open minded on Brands, ill critique and praise i think he has done some things well also.

To put a slightly alternative view.

1) On midfield, Gomes was generally considered very good, and got a hideous injury. Year 2 we sign Gbamin, he has 2 serious injuries.Thats probaably 50% of our CM spend which which you can't really hold Brands accountable. It's unfortunate. Delph was a poor signing. That one he has to own, it was a bad buy. Overall though, especially if we can get Gbamin/Gomes right, which is a big if, our midfield options look very good for £100m.

2) We haven't sold players well, but again a lot of this isn't down to Brands. Schneiderlin was an awful buy. McCarthy got a horrendous injury (there is a theme here). Given the contracts they were put on, they arealmost impossible to move on. In general, the players Brands has brought in are generally growing in value.

3) Some of his buys are perhaps not as criticised as they might be. I've mentioned Delph, though Mina on the contract he is, and Bernard, while not outright failures have been underwhelming buys thus far.

He's done very well this summer. The big challenge is really when do we sell a big assett, say a Richarlinson for 100m+ and how do we cope with the restructure.

 

[catcherintherye]

If that was out of keeping with our summer business it would be a good point. But it's not, so it isn't.

Sorry a bit lost here mate, if what was out of keeping with our summer business? The players above? Or poor value?

 

[granter79]

New contract and statue at BMD please. Our saviour

 

[Lanolin]

Sorry a bit lost here mate, if what was out of keeping with our summer business? The players above? Or poor value?

The January business. You can't say there's obviously no value in January because we've bought poorly, because we've also bought poorly in the summer. The time of year isn't the issue, it's just poor business full stop. For every Niasse in January there's a Sandro in July.

 

[catcherintherye]

Agreed, and its a direct correlation of money wasted in previous windows, both under his watch and others, that the budget can't stretch any further.

That's the real cost of dud signings, particularly when you overpay to the extent we did for some players, Iwobi and Kean being the foremost examples.

I also think, philosophically, we will always be 1 short somewhere as football fans always want 1 more. If we got a striker in we would want another right winger. Had we got both it would be a right back. If we got that people would probably look and say a young CM. Its not a bad impulse as you have to keep looking forwrd, but it's very rare fans are wholly satisfied with a team.

You also have to weight up risk v reward in his job. How many minutes is a 3rd striker going to get? How much is it going to cost? Is it worth it. If you abstract the financial question, you just go and sign 30 world class players, but these tensions exist.

I'd have liked to have seen a wide forward come in, like a better version of Walcott, but no idea if it's possible. I hope if Bernard/Bolasie go out in January that might free some of the pot up to bring one in. We may well be in a strnger negotiating position too, if we go into January in the top 2-3.

 

[catcherintherye]

The January business. You can't say there's obviously no value in January because we've bought poorly, because we've also bought poorly in the summer. The time of year isn't the issue, it's just poor business full stop. For every Niasse in January there's a Sandro in July.

Ah yes I get you now. Sorry I thought you meant this last summer and I was a little taken aback as I think we would all agree the business looks very decent!

It's a worthwhile debate of whether there is inherently no value in January, or whether we have just bought badly. I think you have to probably buy in more unorthodox areas. Sides will not let their best players go easily or cheaply. I probably agree with you though that in general it's silly to write off 1 of the 2 windows you can operate in and secondly this particular January there may well be areas of opportunity that arise.

We have seen last January that Brainthwaite looks already, fantastic value. I know Lookman gets lumped in, but we made more than double what we paid for him, and could have trebled it had we sold a year earlier. Given fans have not been allowed back, and that could well still be the case in January, clubs will be under pressure and players could well become available come January at a fraction of the costs. A lot depends on where we are, and whether strenthening makes sense (and if we slip to being mid table ish, in truth its not) but if we remain up the top getting 1 or 2 in makes a lot of sense.

Milik or King's value may become nominal come January. If Watford look like they may not be coming up, the 40m they were holding out for may drop to 30 and you can negotiate from that point.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I mentioned the resources in my earlier post mate. https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/marcel-brands.111060/page-31 especially when it comes to central midfield, we have spent North of 100 mill on the position since hes been here and its only year three that we look to have a functioning line there.

You look at wage distribution to id say a few on here would be surprised who are highest earners are. Its not who you would presume nor our best players.

But its the player trading aspect to, we've turned Morgan, McCarthy players who cost close to 50 mill combined to players who we basically consider frees.

Things like the above are huge resource outgoings, for very little incomings. Its all well and good saying they werent going to this or that - but their value dropped under our management team.

I know where you are coming from, im not convinced those players were unhappy, presumptions were made in my opinion and i think we needed dough, which ultimately was poorly invested. It depends where you stand on the pragmatic spectrum really. I might be naïve but i think a role of director of football is in part saying to said players, look you have a big future here, here's the five year plan and here is where you fit into it, hang in there lad, your our man.

Like i say im open minded on Brands, ill critique and praise i think he has done some things well also.

Yeah I'm not discussing your views on Brands so much. We're all entitled to an opinion. It was more the comment about the second transfer window and how bad it was. I just didn't think it was as bad as you are saying, although I agree that Delph was ill advised and iwobi was a last minute panic buy, which I didn't expect from Brands.

Not sure about the two lads wanting to stay. Both were making loud noises to move. However I think Lookman should have got more opportunities in Silva's first season. And I did question Vlasic going on loan that season also, but we were ok in numbers for wide plays by then so he may not have been given an opportunity. Both of those I put down to Silva rather than Brands.

As regards total outlay in midfield, half of that was of course in the latest window. Of the other half, 50% was on Gbamin who hasn't played, and most of the rest was on Gomes who also has suffered a terrible injury. So we're back again to Delph who I think cost us £9m.

 

[Neiler]

Good posts @Barnfred 55 & @catcherintherye, i always respect both your views. Like i say im open minded, im just drilling into some of the nitty gritty of the varied role, decisions and impact over a cycle.

I think any determination comes down to your opinion on balance of luck, context and decision making. Im not sure everything can be wrote off on one of those three aspects alone.

Something went horribly wrong last season, i dont think i remember a season ever were fans hated the team, or were ashamed of them as much as last year. I think that is significant. Im not really slamming Brands, nor overly blindly have absolute faith him. something happened between May 19 - May 20, that id think had a very depleting and harmful effect on the club during that period, im picking the bones of that really and analysing angles of it as they may fairly or unfairly pertain to Brands.

 

[Lanolin]

Ah yes I get you now. Sorry I thought you meant this last summer and I was a little taken aback as I think we would all agree the business looks very decent!

It's a worthwhile debate of whether there is inherently no value in January, or whether we have just bought badly. I think you have to probably buy in more unorthodox areas. Sides will not let their best players go easily or cheaply. I probably agree with you though that in general it's silly to write off 1 of the 2 windows you can operate in and secondly this particular January there may well be areas of opportunity that arise.

We have seen last January that Brainthwaite looks already, fantastic value. I know Lookman gets lumped in, but we made more than double what we paid for him, and could have trebled it had we sold a year earlier. Given fans have not been allowed back, and that could well still be the case in January, clubs will be under pressure and players could well become available come January at a fraction of the costs. A lot depends on where we are, and whether strenthening makes sense (and if we slip to being mid table ish, in truth its not) but if we remain up the top getting 1 or 2 in makes a lot of sense.

Milik or King's value may become nominal come January. If Watford look like they may not be coming up, the 40m they were holding out for may drop to 30 and you can negotiate from that point.

Yeah that's pretty much how i see it. I think people think you can't make good signings in January because much of the business done then is by teams who are desperate. They're either trying to sign players to keep them up, or trying to buy players to plug gaps, and so they can be end up making panicked signings and also being held to ransom. If you're not desperate, there's no reason why you can't pick up good players.

 

[TheSecondComing]

now we are two more players down the realisation is going to hit again about our DOF

 

[catcherintherye]

Yeah that's pretty much how i see it. I think people think you can't make good signings in January because much of the business done then is by teams who are desperate. They're either trying to sign players to keep them up, or trying to buy players to plug gaps, and so they can be end up making panicked signings and also being held to ransom. If you're not desperate, there's no reason why you can't pick up good players.

I've never really bought into the concept good or bad times to trade. There are just different challenges so you need to have different approaches.

I can fully understand if Brands view is that re-adjusting the team mid way through is unhelpful. Or that it blocks players progress (as we have seen with Gordon and DCL in the previous 2 years). However I doubt he blanketly ignores the window as some might feel. I know he may publicly say as much, but I'd really not take too literally anyone who is involved on acquisitions and sales. They/we are a pretty untrusthworthy bunch. I say a whole host of things in my job, most of which are almost entirely stretching the truth to help with a negotiation.