I think it also underestimates the number of people who would quite like a boring president who just popped up now and then and didn’t want consume all the oxygen all the time!
Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46
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It will fail because it is cut and paste from an "outsider" campaign rather than one from an incumbent running on his/her record. Apparently they think it was the message that resonated in 2016 and hope it will do so again when, instead, the outcome of the 2016 race was almost entirely a backlash to Hillary Clinton as the nominee. Even then, they won the Electoral College by the narrowest of paths.
They ran the same message in 2018 and got slaughtered.
orly
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I'll be honest, the loudest pro-Harris cheerleading I have seen in the last 24 hours has been when I have navigated through links on here to Twitter and Reddit - both with a notoriously poor forecasters of electorall outcomes.
Put it this way - Trump has crashed the employment figures, made the country a geopolitical laughing stock, his mishandling of the C-19 pandemic has killed over 100,000 Americans, he's a nasty senile rotter who is going into this with zero forward momentum....
.... and he's what, 8 points behind Biden in some places? After all that???
I'm not cheerleading for Harris, she wouldnt have been my pick. There are problems, but there are problems with any candidate. There would have been more problems with say an Elizabeth Warren and an easier case to make. I just dont think it will be an enormous advantage for Trump.
The 2nd point is fair, but I read that consumption and money in peoples pockets has remained quite solid. The view of whether it is a recession or not also varies on party support too. Most Republican voters dont even accept there is a recession. It's a very polemicised situation.
One thing I take from the polls, is the dont knows are much lower. I mean Clinton's peak (from where she collapsed was around 7.5) generally had her in the early 40s, trump in the mid 30s with a large chunk of dont knows (that broke for Trump). Biden is 50-52 now, theres a lot less dont knows. If you're chasing as Trump is, its more difficult.
Theres a fair bit to go. You're right to point out the electoral college advantage he has (and looks to be strengthening from polls) and he recovered from a weak position around this time 4 years ago. My gut feeling is Biden is less polarising than Clinton, especially a Clinton who had served many years under a black mans presidency. Some conjecture there, but I struggle to see the same momentum gaining from a similar approach.
I'd say Trumps best plan was to try to be inoffensive, and allow some more scrutiny on Biden. I doubt he can manage it though.
Yes, I think Trump suits being an incumbent more than a leader. It's rare for a leader to lose isnt it?
The Dems lost in 2016 in no small part to lots of black people not voting. What impact will Trump going after a black woman have to this do we think?
orly
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Why? It makes absolutely no sense to try and pivot at this stage. He has to double down on his base or he risks confusing/ alienating his target audience.
Also, Biden less polarising than Clinton isn't very difficult, but he's not nearly beige enough to reach across the gap.
We live in a time where the political right in this country live in a bubble with "news" coming from FOX, right-wing radio and Breitbart. They do not believe Cheeto has crashed the employment figures, made the US a geopolitical laughing stock and mishandled the COVID pandemic. They LOVE his nasty, senile rants.
Yet even when the country was seemingly doing well, his approval numbers rarely reached 50%. No POTUS has ever won re-election with approval ratings as low as his.
Why? It makes absolutely no sense to try and pivot at this stage. He has to double down on his base or he risks confusing/ alienating his target audience.
Also, Biden less polarising than Clinton isn't very difficult, but he's not nearly beige enough to reach across the gap.
I think it would help him from an incumbency standpoint. I'd also say, since stopping his attacks on BLM the gap has closed a bit. When he attacked them, he dropped quite quickly and the gap grew.
It's fair in his base, but he has to be able to reach across and win people from outside of that (or hold them) as well as trying to keep the Dems turnout down. Toning it down a bit would help with that.
Youd say hed have to get his rating towards the mid 40s to be competitive to win. It's possible.
Death
I'll take down dat coal powered MG, I tel u Hwat
I hope I grow old enough that to see BB understand I like to break up the tension with a bit of fun sometimes.
Especially when 77 is going full Steve and calling me names and getting hot under the collar.
I want to maintain my reputation of being very well liked in these neck of the woods. I know when to take the foot off the pedal.
Especially when 77 is going full Steve and calling me names and getting hot under the collar.
I want to maintain my reputation of being very well liked in these neck of the woods. I know when to take the foot off the pedal.
It is indeed fairly rare for an incumbent to lose. The relatively recent two examples are Carter and Bush the Elder. Both had approval levels in upper 30s to low 40s at this point in their Administration. Trump is at 41%.
An old white man going after a black female isn't a good look after millions of Americans were marching in the streets night after night in response to black men being killed by police. It's also not a good look for GOP surrogates like Mark Levin and Dinesh D'Souza to decide for Kamala Harris that she's not black.
orly
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You keep saying this but it just isn't historically accurate. There has also been no Left correction since 2016 in global politics, and the US is no longer a moral or thought authority to lead this change.
Trump has vast amounts on his side going into this run; historical precedent and the record of incumbents; the fact that his continuing presence as the Leader of the Free World is of vast benefit to the darker forces (China, Russia etc.) All of whom will bring their influences to bear; he's a solid fundraiser; his Party still control one side of the House; and what could make his stock drop any lower than all I have listed above in a previous post?
Could have named the Frankenstein's monster of Hitler, Bin Laden and Britney Murphy and would still get my vote because I will vote for any Dem to counter the right voting for their team no matter the consequences. GO TEAM.
I find it so weird how Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are SOMEHOW labelled "radical left". That's about as centrist a ticket as you can possibly get in the US. By any metrics of a first world country they are mostly a conservative ticket. Sanders was barely left of center in any normal country ffs..
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