Firstly I have to say I know Jeffrey Donaldson, or rather I knew him, I haven’t spoken to him in a few years, I knew him through work but as I changed jobs we no longer needed to meet. I also knew many DUP elected representatives along with Sinn Fein members and members of other parties. I still work with Northern Ireland politicians but they are not the big hitters of the past. I can definitely say they are all friendly normal people when they step away from politics, with the exception of Jim Allister who has no redeeming qualities.
Of all the politicians I have worked with Jeffery Donaldson is the most consummate, he always was well prepared, he knew what he wanted and, while he was polite, he didn’t waver from where he wanted to go. I was surprised to see the mess he has gotten himself into over the boycott of Stormont, I never thought he would allow himself to be painted into such a corner, I can only surmise he wasn’t in control of the DUP and hadn’t the leverage to move them on.
The last week seems to have marked a change, the DUP executive meeting and then the speech in Parliament seems to have moved things on. My take on it is that he now knows he cannot sit outside the Assembly complaining about how the country is run while the place falls apart. He knows he needs the soft nationalist vote if there is to be a border poll to secure the union, they are not going to vote to stay within a broken entity. If people are financially more secure in an all Ireland Republic that will have a significant effect on how they vote. I also think he now knows the DUP are not one party, once they left behind Paisley’s party of protest status and became mainstream they needed to change, they did but kept the extremism of Dodds, Wilson, Paisley Jr etc. The party is too diverse to be carried by one person or a single policy, I think JD knows a split is coming and he needs to not only lead it but needs to be on the right side of it.
I think he accepts the deal and takes the majority of the DUP back into Stormont while the extreme right either join TUV or form a new party. He then starts to align more closely with the UUP and hopefully with the incoming Labour government he can make Northern Ireland a better place to live and make it more attractive to the non unionist voters. I can’t see any other path for him and his party.
Time will tell.