All that's changed is the current UK PM sees the need to strike a deal to help his economy and the greater Tory party knows if he doesn't then their chances at the next election are zero. Straight away, for example, the deal will allow the UK to take part once more in Horizon. Ireland has been whispering in the ear of the EU encouraging them to show maximum flexibility because of the uniquely sensitive Northern Ireland situation, and the EU has come up trumps in its support for its member state. In one fell swoop, the EU shows its worth to 5 million Irish people.
Hopefully, this is the start of the UK climbing out of the toilet bowl and rekindling normal diplomatic relations with its nearest neighbours on both sides of the Irish Sea and English Channel.
Its optics as far as I can see:
Green lane, Red lane? Grand move the border from the Irish Sea to the U.K. mainland and allow Tizer and Monster munch into Northern Ireland.
ECJ: Stormont brake, ultimately requires 30 cross party MLAs to agree to pull it - that’s never happening in reality and if it ever does - it’s something really bad happening - so grand too. Ultimately the European Court of Justice has jurisdiction.
Vat: An unexpected bonus, wherever has the best deal North or South at anyone time Ker Ching - before we look at the black economy.
Ultimately very little changed from the original protocol, just optics really and suits the EU as much as it does NI. Sunak also looks busy as if he’s doing something. Win for all.
The real win here is for the EU, ROI and NI.
The EU ultimately wouldn’t work with Johnson, they knew he was spoofer and a liar, they did what the EU do best they sat him out, maintaining a punitive protocol and trade deal on the U.K., he predictably went, they then throw Sunak a bone he can sell, without giving much, to boost his profile - being sen politically as a man who can reason with the EU in the post Brexit apocolyse. The EU are king making here, in their way and ironically have more influence on U.K. internal politics now then they did before Brexit.
The real top off though is the EU now getting full access to U.K. trade data - you couldn’t make it up and a Tour de force of having tea with the king while doing all of the above - Sunak is even off trying to sell the eel in the U.K. and NI.
The really clever angle to this is what it does to the DUP, rock and a hard place, with their concerns politcked around - the only way they can attempt to pull the stormont brake is actually going back into a functioning executive - very clever - I see the South’s finger tips all over that one. If they don’t go back their beef is with Westminster who will endorse the deal. While the EU drink tea with the King, be awful optics for their core.
Lastly what a deal for the people of Northern Ireland, unfettered access to both the EU and U.K. economy, the only other country with that is the Republic, with the economy doing so well down South, the boom could go over the border now as business coukd we’ll be attracted their with their unique position.
Still no one like the DUP to pull self abuse, from the jaws of Nirvana so watch this space…
