Current Affairs Irish Border and Brexit

[Drico]

Irish Times this morning.

The findings are contained in twin opinion polls carried out north and south of the Border for The Irish Times and the Arins Project. Arins — Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South — is a joint initiative of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame.

The two polls, along with a series of accompanying focus groups, were carried out among more than 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic in August and September of this year.

I've been saying this for ever. Right now, there just isn't a majority for this. And remember: even in the Republic, that figure in favour would decline when the financial costs of unification are properly and forensically debated. In my own case, I am instinctively in favour of unification. As a trained economist, I know that unification would actually improve the all-Ireland economy and living standards...eventually. The problem is, as a trained economist, I also know that in the short and medium terms, it would be a huge financial burden on people that nationalist sentiment will simply not make palatable.

Eventually, unification seems inevitable. But those ideologically in favour need to tread very carefully. Push this too fast and they'll set it back generations.

 

[Bluerover]

I've been saying this for ever. Right now, there just isn't a majority for this. And remember: even in the Republic, that figure in favour would decline when the financial costs of unification are properly and forensically debated. In my own case, I am instinctively in favour of unification. As a trained economist, I know that unification would actually improve the all-Ireland economy and living standards...eventually. The problem is, as a trained economist, I also know that in the short and medium terms, it would be a huge financial burden on people that nationalist sentiment will simply not make palatable.

Eventually, unification seems inevitable. But those ideologically in favour need to tread very carefully. Push this too fast and they'll set it back generations.

Not an economist myself, law is my background - but I fully agree with your post.

 

[Drico]

Not an economist myself, law is my background - but I fully agree with your post.

To be fair, you don't need to be. It's common sense - but in this debate, like Brexit, certain points of view will try to ignore common sense when making their untenable case. A bit of honesty would actually help make the case for unification...in the long run. And it would be a better unification then. The danger is certain politicians in the here and now want the glory and historical achievement...when it is really only a future generation that can finally see this through. So, no, Mary Lou. We won't be building statues to you.

 

[Neiler]

It’s a funny poll not sure how indicative it is, 50% don’t want NI in the U.K. and 27% would be in favour of unification.

The clear mandate I think is people are currently unhappy with what is happening presently and see alternatives limited. Essentially the people of NI are unhappy.

Ultimately it looks like a straw poll of a small sample so limited enough to be drawing concrete conclusion. It’s not triggering the overall demographic and that as we know is shifting sands. As the last assembly election showed.

Actually surprised that 50% would like to leave the U.K., with a quarter of the Protestant vote.

Deep sentiment out there that NI has been marginalised and unrepresented for to long. People ultimately won’t tolerate it. History has thought us that.

 

[Bluerover]

It’s a funny poll not sure how indicative it is, 50% don’t want NI in the U.K. and 27% would be in favour of unification.

The clear mandate I think is people are currently unhappy with what is happening presently and see alternatives limited. Essentially the people of NI are unhappy.

Ultimately it looks like a straw poll of a small sample so limited enough to be drawing concrete conclusion. It’s not triggering the overall demographic and that as we know is shifting sands. As the last assembly election showed.

Actually surprised that 50% would like to leave the U.K., with a quarter of the Protestant vote.

Deep sentiment out there that NI has been marginalised and unrepresented for to long. People ultimately won’t tolerate it. History has thought us that.

It is very early, and before any proper debate has commenced on the new options for the people of NI post Brexit.

You out your finger on the marginalisation issue - London doesn't give a hoot about the North. The Republic are happy to allow freedom of trade etc under the Protocol, but most of us do not want an angry rump of people whose favourite word is NO as part of our political set up - we have enough idiots in our own system.

If SF is to get into power in some way on both sides of the Border, it is then t that they will have to prove their mettle.

Reality kicks in when one is in Government, and the electorate are not interested in slogans - they want delivery.

 

[Ferguson1878]

It is very early, and before any proper debate has commenced on the new options for the people of NI post Brexit.

You out your finger on the marginalisation issue - London doesn't give a hoot about the North. The Republic are happy to allow freedom of trade etc under the Protocol, but most of us do not want an angry rump of people whose favourite word is NO as part of our political set up - we have enough idiots in our own system.

If SF is to get into power in some way on both sides of the Border, it is then t that they will have to prove their mettle.

Reality kicks in when one is in Government, and the electorate are not interested in slogans - they want delivery.

If there was a vote would people of Northern Ireland be the only ones who would get a vote or would the people in the republic get one too?

 

[thirdmantackle]

Only those in north would get a vote

 

[Bluerover]

If there was a vote would people of Northern Ireland be the only ones who would get a vote or would the people in the republic get one too?

It would be an all- Ireland poll.

When the Republic accepted the GFA it inserted the following amended wording into Article 3 (which had previously claimed sovereignty over the whole island):

It is the firm will of the Irish nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island.

My legal interpretation of "in both jurisdictions" is that there must be a clear majority in the 6 counties and separately in the 26 counties.

In the GFA itself Art 1.1 states that both governments must:

recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland.

Article 1.2 deals with the potential for a united Ireland and states this must be accepted if separate votes held at the same time on both sides of the border support this.

Both governments must:

recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland.

The agreement also states that if such a decision is taken in referendums on both sides of the border, governments have an obligation to introduce legislation to give effect to the change.

 

[WA Toffee]

Only those in north would get a vote

Surely the republic would have to have a referndum too? You can't just force unification onto them

 

[Neiler]

It is very early, and before any proper debate has commenced on the new options for the people of NI post Brexit.

You out your finger on the marginalisation issue - London doesn't give a hoot about the North. The Republic are happy to allow freedom of trade etc under the Protocol, but most of us do not want an angry rump of people whose favourite word is NO as part of our political set up - we have enough idiots in our own system.

If SF is to get into power in some way on both sides of the Border, it is then t that they will have to prove their mettle.

Reality kicks in when one is in Government, and the electorate are not interested in slogans - they want delivery.

Needs another 10 years I think before a border poll, the timing is key imo, more and more extremism is being marginalised and by that stage Sinn Fein may have washed its face or a party will take the middle ground, Demographics will shift further, there will be a resolution to the protocol and the North will be more aligned to the south than the U.K. The benefits of being in the EU will speak for themselves IMO, greed always trumps ideology. Ultimately people will get fed up without representation and if Sinn Fein get in here which they may, they will have massive strings to pull and leverage to prompt a poll.

Meantime let UK tax payers fund it, while the people of NI and ROI enjoy it.

 

[thirdmantackle]

Surely the republic would have to have a referndum too? You can't just force unification onto them

You might be right, but it would easily pass down south

I'd probably vote against it. I don't think the unionists are ready for that and it will cause a lot of problems
There's also now a huge inequity between north and south in almost every area of society

 

[Drumblue]

If there was a vote would people of Northern Ireland be the only ones who would get a vote or would the people in the republic get one too

Surely the republic would have to have a referndum too? You can't just force unification onto them

Both parts of Ireland vote in a referendum for unity.
A majority is needed in both parts of Ireland. 50% +1 ?

 

[Drumblue]

Only those in north would get a vote

Read the GFA m8.

 

[Drumblue]

I've been saying this for ever. Right now, there just isn't a majority for this. And remember: even in the Republic, that figure in favour would decline when the financial costs of unification are properly and forensically debated. In my own case, I am instinctively in favour of unification. As a trained economist, I know that unification would actually improve the all-Ireland economy and living standards...eventually. The problem is, as a trained economist, I also know that in the short and medium terms, it would be a huge financial burden on people that nationalist sentiment will simply not make palatable.

Eventually, unification seems inevitable. But those ideologically in favour need to tread very carefully. Push this too fast and they'll set it back generations.

The DUP have introduced a bill in parliament for a super majority needed in any future referendums regarding the status of the north of Ireland.
Their definitely spooked.?

 

[IrishBlue2022]

The DUP have introduced a bill in parliament for a super majority needed in any future referendums regarding the status of the north of Ireland.
Their definitely spooked.?

They can't Gerrymander a full population vote you see so this is their only trick.

It won't pass, usual tokenism from the DUP who are trying to claw back voters.