Current Affairs Irish Border and Brexit

[Drumblue]

I dont think it's that Colm soundbite Eastwood is appealing to people more that S.F have made a mess of it in Derry.

They did, buts that's being sorted now. If you look at the latest polls north and south the young voters are flocking to Sinn Fein.

 

[Caolam]

I dont think it's that Colm soundbite Eastwood is appealing to people more that S.F have made a mess of it in Derry.

I don’t know how well you know Derry and I am always willing to listen to an informed view but I am not so sure that your reading of the situation is correct there are still places in Northern Ireland where the SDLP can still rely on a traditional support. I live in one of those areas however the number of votes from my town is no longer enough to carry the Westminster seat but is enough to elect a number of MLAs and it wouldn’t take a major shift to elect at least one more. You describe Colm Eastwood as a sound bite but the SDLP has more prominent members than him, Clare Hanna and Mathew O’Toole present as very sensible politicians. I think that if Sinn Fein underestimate the SPLP at this election then they may well allow the status quo to persist.

View attachment 144291

I think that we have seen that asking people how they are going to vote and how they actually do vote is a fallacy. I would set very little store in this type of forecasting, it appears to me that the majority of the electorate wish to appear as liberal and open minded but when it comes to voting for a government they retreat to entrenched positions.

 

[Drumblue]

I don’t know how well you know Derry and I am always willing to listen to an informed view but I am not so sure that your reading of the situation is correct there are still places in Northern Ireland where the SDLP can still rely on a traditional support. I live in one of those areas however the number of votes from my town is no longer enough to carry the Westminster seat but is enough to elect a number of MLAs and it wouldn’t take a major shift to elect at least one more. You describe Colm Eastwood as a sound bite but the SDLP has more prominent members than him, Clare Hanna and Mathew O’Toole present as very sensible politicians. I think that if Sinn Fein underestimate the SPLP at this election then they may well allow the status quo to persist.

I think that we have seen that asking people how they are going to vote and how they actually do vote is a fallacy. I would set very little store in this type of forecasting, it appears to me that the majority of the electorate wish to appear as liberal and open minded but when it comes to voting for a government they retreat to entrenched positions.

I think Eastwood attending the celebration of parition in Armagh is going to lose the SDLP votes.

 

[Khalekan]

Aye up.

Brexit continues to eat its own children,

Now it is Frostie the No man’s turn to retire to the sunlit uplands where unicorns gambol and the sun never sets.

 

[Emlynsqueakyvoice]

Aye up.

Brexit continues to eat its own children,

Now it is Frostie the No man’s turn to retire to the sunlit uplands where unicorns gambol and the sun never sets.

There is simply no answer to the Brexit/NI situation that doesn't involve reunification. Mr Frost (unelected, remember) has emulated Davis and the other bluffers, he quit. He cannot face the facts. This Brexit nonsense does not work for the people. How can the British people be so stupid?
Happy to hear solutions from the Brexiteers....

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

There is simply no answer to the Brexit/NI situation that doesn't involve reunification. Mr Frost (unelected, remember) has emulated Davis and the other bluffers, he quit. He cannot face the facts. This Brexit nonsense does not work for the people. How can the British people be so stupid?
Happy to hear solutions from the Brexiteers....

All far too busy searching deleted files on hard drives with recuva/time machine excetra and releasing various footage and comment from parties last year... However, finally some "high tech" solutions from them.

 

[dublinbluenose]

That special relationship

 

[Khalekan]

That special relationship

That’s behind a paywall.

Any chance you coukd copy and paste the article please, Dub?

 

[dublinbluenose]

That’s behind a paywall.

Any chance you coukd copy and paste the article please, Dub?

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson: has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the Northern Ireland protocol is scrapped. Picture: Liam McBurney
It is only now, more than a century after the Proclamation of Independence, that the extraordinary prescience of the signatories is becoming clear. They implored Ireland’s “exiled children in America and gallant allies in Europe” to rally behind the country’s push for independence.
One hundred years after the 1916 Rising, Britain pursued its own path to “independence” by voting to leave the EU. However, its efforts to make a clean break from the bloc has been complicated by the Irish border.
The British government faced a clear choice: it could abide by its commitments under the Good Friday agreement and ensure there was no return to the borders of the past, or it could opt for a hard Brexit. Over the past five years, London has generally refused to acknowledge this reality.

There was initially a naive assumption that Ireland would have no other choice but to follow the UK through the exit door. When it became apparent that Dublin would remain a committed member of the EU, Brexiteers resorted to bullying and downright dishonest tactics.

There were claims that the Irish government was exaggerating the consequences for the border, followed by talk of magical technological solutions to the impasse.

Speaking to a senior UK government source during the week, what the British side completely underestimated was the commitment by Brussels to stand foursquare behind the Irish government to ensure there was no fudge on the border. Initially there was resentment, but this gave way to a sneaking regard for the Irish diplomatic service and its ability to mobilise the EU’s heft behind Ireland’s cause.

But while it was an important rampart against the British government’s efforts to play fast and very loose with its obligations, it also had limitations. Standing up to Brussels plays to the Tory base. Euroscepticism has morphed into Europhobia for many ardent Brexiteers. This cohort will take whatever economic hit stems from a stand-off with Brussels, as long as it results in an even deeper rupture from the EU. This cohort also happens to be the ruling clique centred around Boris Johnson, the prime minister.

The rationale for Brexit is that free from the shackles of Europe, buccaneering Britain would be free to compensate from any loss of trade by striking deals with the rest of the world. The more delusional wing of the Tory Party, namely Daniel Hannan, believed that the UK would lead a new union of Anglosphere countries bound together by a shared use of the English language and other traditional “British values”.

Donald Trump gave succour to this objective by supporting Brexit and pledging an ambitious trade deal with the UK. But then Trump was replaced by Joe Biden, a passionate Irish-American, as US president. The Biden White House has been unequivocal about its support for the Good Friday Agreement. Its position is that the Northern Ireland protocol, which puts a customs barrier down the Irish sea, has to be implemented to preserve the peace accord.

According to the senior British government source mentioned earlier, the pressure applied by the Biden administration has forced a change of position. The British economy is already under significant pressure from the effects of Brexit and Covid-19 lockdown measures.

It is understood the British Treasury intervened in ongoing negotiations and ordered David Frost, the chief British interlocutor, to take the threat of invoking Article 16 off the table and do a deal. That was the reason behind the recent volte face to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which had previously been a red line for London.

The problem now is that Frost has marched unionists up the hill, and is going to abandon them there. Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the DUP, has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the protocol is scrapped. Donaldson was emboldened to take this position by the seeming willingness of Frost to take unilateral action, and in particular, to trigger Article 16.

Ironically, Frost took to social media to claim that his willingness to renege on an internationally binding treaty was to preserve peace in the North.

Progress will be slow and negotiators still face a few obstacles, but the odds are increasing that there will be a deal between the UK and EU on the protocol. At that point, Donaldson faces the choice of accepting the inevitable or calling early elections.

If he decides to collapse Stormont, it would be an act of monumental folly that will surely backfire. It would also expose the lack of strategic nous at the heart of unionism.

Opposition to the protocol is based on the idea that it loosens the constitutional ties between Northern Ireland and Britain. In reality, it is an outworking of the Good Friday agreement which accepts that Northern Ireland is different to the rest of the UK.

One of the provisions of the accord is that if the secretary of state for Northern Ireland believes that there is a majority support in favour of a united Ireland, then it is incumbent upon him/her to call a border poll. That does not apply to any other part of the UK.

Also, the benefits of the protocol are potentially significant for Northern Ireland. It gives businesses unique access to the UK and EU markets. Much of the political instability in Northern Ireland is caused by unionist fears over the increasing momentum to a border poll. But if the protocol was in place and the economic benefits were trickling down from increased trade, then that would dampen enthusiasm to change the constitutional position of Northern Ireland.

The incentive to pick one side or the other would diminish as long as the North enjoyed the best of both worlds.

The penny may drop for Donaldson yet, but he has backed himself into a corner. If he follows through on his threat, then it ensures that Northern Ireland suffers the same economic downside to Brexit as the rest of the UK. That, much more than the protocol, will weaken the ties that bind the union together.

 

[Khalekan]

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson: has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the Northern Ireland protocol is scrapped. Picture: Liam McBurney
It is only now, more than a century after the Proclamation of Independence, that the extraordinary prescience of the signatories is becoming clear. They implored Ireland’s “exiled children in America and gallant allies in Europe” to rally behind the country’s push for independence.
One hundred years after the 1916 Rising, Britain pursued its own path to “independence” by voting to leave the EU. However, its efforts to make a clean break from the bloc has been complicated by the Irish border.
The British government faced a clear choice: it could abide by its commitments under the Good Friday agreement and ensure there was no return to the borders of the past, or it could opt for a hard Brexit. Over the past five years, London has generally refused to acknowledge this reality.

There was initially a naive assumption that Ireland would have no other choice but to follow the UK through the exit door. When it became apparent that Dublin would remain a committed member of the EU, Brexiteers resorted to bullying and downright dishonest tactics.

There were claims that the Irish government was exaggerating the consequences for the border, followed by talk of magical technological solutions to the impasse.

Speaking to a senior UK government source during the week, what the British side completely underestimated was the commitment by Brussels to stand foursquare behind the Irish government to ensure there was no fudge on the border. Initially there was resentment, but this gave way to a sneaking regard for the Irish diplomatic service and its ability to mobilise the EU’s heft behind Ireland’s cause.

But while it was an important rampart against the British government’s efforts to play fast and very loose with its obligations, it also had limitations. Standing up to Brussels plays to the Tory base. Euroscepticism has morphed into Europhobia for many ardent Brexiteers. This cohort will take whatever economic hit stems from a stand-off with Brussels, as long as it results in an even deeper rupture from the EU. This cohort also happens to be the ruling clique centred around Boris Johnson, the prime minister.

The rationale for Brexit is that free from the shackles of Europe, buccaneering Britain would be free to compensate from any loss of trade by striking deals with the rest of the world. The more delusional wing of the Tory Party, namely Daniel Hannan, believed that the UK would lead a new union of Anglosphere countries bound together by a shared use of the English language and other traditional “British values”.

Donald Trump gave succour to this objective by supporting Brexit and pledging an ambitious trade deal with the UK. But then Trump was replaced by Joe Biden, a passionate Irish-American, as US president. The Biden White House has been unequivocal about its support for the Good Friday Agreement. Its position is that the Northern Ireland protocol, which puts a customs barrier down the Irish sea, has to be implemented to preserve the peace accord.

According to the senior British government source mentioned earlier, the pressure applied by the Biden administration has forced a change of position. The British economy is already under significant pressure from the effects of Brexit and Covid-19 lockdown measures.

It is understood the British Treasury intervened in ongoing negotiations and ordered David Frost, the chief British interlocutor, to take the threat of invoking Article 16 off the table and do a deal. That was the reason behind the recent volte face to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which had previously been a red line for London.

The problem now is that Frost has marched unionists up the hill, and is going to abandon them there. Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the DUP, has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the protocol is scrapped. Donaldson was emboldened to take this position by the seeming willingness of Frost to take unilateral action, and in particular, to trigger Article 16.

Ironically, Frost took to social media to claim that his willingness to renege on an internationally binding treaty was to preserve peace in the North.

Progress will be slow and negotiators still face a few obstacles, but the odds are increasing that there will be a deal between the UK and EU on the protocol. At that point, Donaldson faces the choice of accepting the inevitable or calling early elections.

If he decides to collapse Stormont, it would be an act of monumental folly that will surely backfire. It would also expose the lack of strategic nous at the heart of unionism.

Opposition to the protocol is based on the idea that it loosens the constitutional ties between Northern Ireland and Britain. In reality, it is an outworking of the Good Friday agreement which accepts that Northern Ireland is different to the rest of the UK.

One of the provisions of the accord is that if the secretary of state for Northern Ireland believes that there is a majority support in favour of a united Ireland, then it is incumbent upon him/her to call a border poll. That does not apply to any other part of the UK.

Also, the benefits of the protocol are potentially significant for Northern Ireland. It gives businesses unique access to the UK and EU markets. Much of the political instability in Northern Ireland is caused by unionist fears over the increasing momentum to a border poll. But if the protocol was in place and the economic benefits were trickling down from increased trade, then that would dampen enthusiasm to change the constitutional position of Northern Ireland.

The incentive to pick one side or the other would diminish as long as the North enjoyed the best of both worlds.

The penny may drop for Donaldson yet, but he has backed himself into a corner. If he follows through on his threat, then it ensures that Northern Ireland suffers the same economic downside to Brexit as the rest of the UK. That, much more than the protocol, will weaken the ties that bind the union together.

Cheers, Dub.

Good article, that.

 

[woodsyni]

The problem those DUP morons have is they haven't twigged that no one outside their little bubble gives a toss about them. They are an embarrassment that shames us. You would hope that it will click that their usual ploy of 'taking their ball home' can't work this time but I'm not holding my breath. Unfortunately, they keep company with even nastier people who will burn the house down rather than admit they were wrong. Hateful, hateful bigots!!!

 

[dublinbluenose]

The problem those DUP morons have is they haven't twigged that no one outside their little bubble gives a toss about them. They are an embarrassment that shames us. You would hope that it will click that their usual ploy of 'taking their ball home' can't work this time but I'm not holding my breath. Unfortunately, they keep company with even nastier people who will burn the house down rather than admit they were wrong. Hateful, hateful bigots!!!

They still think they own and control the ball

 

[woodsyni]

They still think they own and control the ball

They do because they are so used to getting their own way. If it wasn't for the very real danger of a return to violence, I'd be really enjoying their 'getting shafted'.

Ach, who am I kidding? I'm enjoying it anyway. ?

 

[ramacca]

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson: has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the Northern Ireland protocol is scrapped. Picture: Liam McBurney
It is only now, more than a century after the Proclamation of Independence, that the extraordinary prescience of the signatories is becoming clear. They implored Ireland’s “exiled children in America and gallant allies in Europe” to rally behind the country’s push for independence.
One hundred years after the 1916 Rising, Britain pursued its own path to “independence” by voting to leave the EU. However, its efforts to make a clean break from the bloc has been complicated by the Irish border.
The British government faced a clear choice: it could abide by its commitments under the Good Friday agreement and ensure there was no return to the borders of the past, or it could opt for a hard Brexit. Over the past five years, London has generally refused to acknowledge this reality.

There was initially a naive assumption that Ireland would have no other choice but to follow the UK through the exit door. When it became apparent that Dublin would remain a committed member of the EU, Brexiteers resorted to bullying and downright dishonest tactics.

There were claims that the Irish government was exaggerating the consequences for the border, followed by talk of magical technological solutions to the impasse.

Speaking to a senior UK government source during the week, what the British side completely underestimated was the commitment by Brussels to stand foursquare behind the Irish government to ensure there was no fudge on the border. Initially there was resentment, but this gave way to a sneaking regard for the Irish diplomatic service and its ability to mobilise the EU’s heft behind Ireland’s cause.

But while it was an important rampart against the British government’s efforts to play fast and very loose with its obligations, it also had limitations. Standing up to Brussels plays to the Tory base. Euroscepticism has morphed into Europhobia for many ardent Brexiteers. This cohort will take whatever economic hit stems from a stand-off with Brussels, as long as it results in an even deeper rupture from the EU. This cohort also happens to be the ruling clique centred around Boris Johnson, the prime minister.

The rationale for Brexit is that free from the shackles of Europe, buccaneering Britain would be free to compensate from any loss of trade by striking deals with the rest of the world. The more delusional wing of the Tory Party, namely Daniel Hannan, believed that the UK would lead a new union of Anglosphere countries bound together by a shared use of the English language and other traditional “British values”.

Donald Trump gave succour to this objective by supporting Brexit and pledging an ambitious trade deal with the UK. But then Trump was replaced by Joe Biden, a passionate Irish-American, as US president. The Biden White House has been unequivocal about its support for the Good Friday Agreement. Its position is that the Northern Ireland protocol, which puts a customs barrier down the Irish sea, has to be implemented to preserve the peace accord.

According to the senior British government source mentioned earlier, the pressure applied by the Biden administration has forced a change of position. The British economy is already under significant pressure from the effects of Brexit and Covid-19 lockdown measures.

It is understood the British Treasury intervened in ongoing negotiations and ordered David Frost, the chief British interlocutor, to take the threat of invoking Article 16 off the table and do a deal. That was the reason behind the recent volte face to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which had previously been a red line for London.

The problem now is that Frost has marched unionists up the hill, and is going to abandon them there. Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the DUP, has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the protocol is scrapped. Donaldson was emboldened to take this position by the seeming willingness of Frost to take unilateral action, and in particular, to trigger Article 16.

Ironically, Frost took to social media to claim that his willingness to renege on an internationally binding treaty was to preserve peace in the North.

Progress will be slow and negotiators still face a few obstacles, but the odds are increasing that there will be a deal between the UK and EU on the protocol. At that point, Donaldson faces the choice of accepting the inevitable or calling early elections.

If he decides to collapse Stormont, it would be an act of monumental folly that will surely backfire. It would also expose the lack of strategic nous at the heart of unionism.

Opposition to the protocol is based on the idea that it loosens the constitutional ties between Northern Ireland and Britain. In reality, it is an outworking of the Good Friday agreement which accepts that Northern Ireland is different to the rest of the UK.

One of the provisions of the accord is that if the secretary of state for Northern Ireland believes that there is a majority support in favour of a united Ireland, then it is incumbent upon him/her to call a border poll. That does not apply to any other part of the UK.

Also, the benefits of the protocol are potentially significant for Northern Ireland. It gives businesses unique access to the UK and EU markets. Much of the political instability in Northern Ireland is caused by unionist fears over the increasing momentum to a border poll. But if the protocol was in place and the economic benefits were trickling down from increased trade, then that would dampen enthusiasm to change the constitutional position of Northern Ireland.

The incentive to pick one side or the other would diminish as long as the North enjoyed the best of both worlds.

The penny may drop for Donaldson yet, but he has backed himself into a corner. If he follows through on his threat, then it ensures that Northern Ireland suffers the same economic downside to Brexit as the rest of the UK. That, much more than the protocol, will weaken the ties that bind the union together.

"According to the senior British government source mentioned earlier, the pressure applied by the Biden administration has forced a change of position. The British economy is already under significant pressure from the effects of Brexit and Covid-19 lockdown measures.

It is understood the British Treasury intervened in ongoing negotiations and ordered David Frost, the chief British interlocutor, to take the threat of invoking Article 16 off the table and do a deal. That was the reason behind the recent volte face to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which had previously been a red line for London".

Brutal reality for Johnson and co..

"The Trump-era tariffs of 25% on steel products and 10% on aluminium were imposed on the EU in 2018, when the UK was still part of the trading bloc.
The US agreed to end the duties on EU products in the autumn, but the tariffs, which nearly halved UK steel exports to its second largest market, remain in place on British steel.

"Downing Street has threatened to trigger Article 16 to override the protocol - something Washington has warned against.

Kim Darroch, a former ambassador to the US, said the reports on the "troubled state" of trade relations between the UK and the US are "confirmation that the US will act to protect a peace they helped broker" in Northern Ireland.
He added that the UK was "not going to have a thriving trade relationship with our biggest trading partner" - the EU, nor a free trade agreement with the US, "until the government stops threatening to walk away from an international agreement [on Northern Ireland] they negotiated and acclaimed only a few months ago".

 

[Drumblue]

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson: has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the Northern Ireland protocol is scrapped. Picture: Liam McBurney
It is only now, more than a century after the Proclamation of Independence, that the extraordinary prescience of the signatories is becoming clear. They implored Ireland’s “exiled children in America and gallant allies in Europe” to rally behind the country’s push for independence.
One hundred years after the 1916 Rising, Britain pursued its own path to “independence” by voting to leave the EU. However, its efforts to make a clean break from the bloc has been complicated by the Irish border.
The British government faced a clear choice: it could abide by its commitments under the Good Friday agreement and ensure there was no return to the borders of the past, or it could opt for a hard Brexit. Over the past five years, London has generally refused to acknowledge this reality.

There was initially a naive assumption that Ireland would have no other choice but to follow the UK through the exit door. When it became apparent that Dublin would remain a committed member of the EU, Brexiteers resorted to bullying and downright dishonest tactics.

There were claims that the Irish government was exaggerating the consequences for the border, followed by talk of magical technological solutions to the impasse.

Speaking to a senior UK government source during the week, what the British side completely underestimated was the commitment by Brussels to stand foursquare behind the Irish government to ensure there was no fudge on the border. Initially there was resentment, but this gave way to a sneaking regard for the Irish diplomatic service and its ability to mobilise the EU’s heft behind Ireland’s cause.

But while it was an important rampart against the British government’s efforts to play fast and very loose with its obligations, it also had limitations. Standing up to Brussels plays to the Tory base. Euroscepticism has morphed into Europhobia for many ardent Brexiteers. This cohort will take whatever economic hit stems from a stand-off with Brussels, as long as it results in an even deeper rupture from the EU. This cohort also happens to be the ruling clique centred around Boris Johnson, the prime minister.

The rationale for Brexit is that free from the shackles of Europe, buccaneering Britain would be free to compensate from any loss of trade by striking deals with the rest of the world. The more delusional wing of the Tory Party, namely Daniel Hannan, believed that the UK would lead a new union of Anglosphere countries bound together by a shared use of the English language and other traditional “British values”.

Donald Trump gave succour to this objective by supporting Brexit and pledging an ambitious trade deal with the UK. But then Trump was replaced by Joe Biden, a passionate Irish-American, as US president. The Biden White House has been unequivocal about its support for the Good Friday Agreement. Its position is that the Northern Ireland protocol, which puts a customs barrier down the Irish sea, has to be implemented to preserve the peace accord.

According to the senior British government source mentioned earlier, the pressure applied by the Biden administration has forced a change of position. The British economy is already under significant pressure from the effects of Brexit and Covid-19 lockdown measures.

It is understood the British Treasury intervened in ongoing negotiations and ordered David Frost, the chief British interlocutor, to take the threat of invoking Article 16 off the table and do a deal. That was the reason behind the recent volte face to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which had previously been a red line for London.

The problem now is that Frost has marched unionists up the hill, and is going to abandon them there. Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the DUP, has threatened to collapse Stormont unless the protocol is scrapped. Donaldson was emboldened to take this position by the seeming willingness of Frost to take unilateral action, and in particular, to trigger Article 16.

Ironically, Frost took to social media to claim that his willingness to renege on an internationally binding treaty was to preserve peace in the North.

Progress will be slow and negotiators still face a few obstacles, but the odds are increasing that there will be a deal between the UK and EU on the protocol. At that point, Donaldson faces the choice of accepting the inevitable or calling early elections.

If he decides to collapse Stormont, it would be an act of monumental folly that will surely backfire. It would also expose the lack of strategic nous at the heart of unionism.

Opposition to the protocol is based on the idea that it loosens the constitutional ties between Northern Ireland and Britain. In reality, it is an outworking of the Good Friday agreement which accepts that Northern Ireland is different to the rest of the UK.

One of the provisions of the accord is that if the secretary of state for Northern Ireland believes that there is a majority support in favour of a united Ireland, then it is incumbent upon him/her to call a border poll. That does not apply to any other part of the UK.

Also, the benefits of the protocol are potentially significant for Northern Ireland. It gives businesses unique access to the UK and EU markets. Much of the political instability in Northern Ireland is caused by unionist fears over the increasing momentum to a border poll. But if the protocol was in place and the economic benefits were trickling down from increased trade, then that would dampen enthusiasm to change the constitutional position of Northern Ireland.

The incentive to pick one side or the other would diminish as long as the North enjoyed the best of both worlds.

The penny may drop for Donaldson yet, but he has backed himself into a corner. If he follows through on his threat, then it ensures that Northern Ireland suffers the same economic downside to Brexit as the rest of the UK. That, much more than the protocol, will weaken the ties that bind the union together.