Current Affairs Iran

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Tennessee Blue Mike said:
Misplayed their hand it seems as proxies are quietly being dismantled.
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Yup. Hamas, Hez, + various Iraqi militias have all been whacked. The logistics and supply chains to these groups have also been severely compromised.

Also Israel took out their main Long/mid-range AD sites which effectively means they are now wide open to attack.

They look weak, because they now are weak.
 
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25. The IDF struck and disabled air defense command-and-control sites and radars, including at some S-300 sites.[1] The S-300 is Russian-made and the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates. The IDF struck three or four S-300 sites, including one at the Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran.[2] Three unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times that the IDF strikes have caused major alarm among Iranian leaders.[3]



Some of the air defense sites that the IDF struck were protecting critical energy infrastructure in western and southwestern Iran. Western media confirmed that IDF struck air defense sites around the Abadan oil refinery, Bandar Imam Khomeini energy complex and port, and the Tang-eh Bijar gas field.[4] Degrading the air defenses around these sites could leave them more vulnerable to future strikes.

CTP-ISW previously reported on how the IDF strikes could also disrupt the Iranian ability to build missiles and transfer them to partners abroad, such as Russia, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The IDF strikes—in addition to targeting air defense sites—hit drone and missile production facilities across Iran.[5] Commercially available satellite imagery revealed significant damage at the Parchin military complex, for example. The Parchin complex is one the most expansive and secretive Iranian missile production facilities. Some of the targets that the IDF targeted at the missile facilities were sophisticated mixing machines used to make solid fuel for advanced ballistic missiles, such as those that Tehran has used to attack Israel directly.[6] Iran will likely need months or possible a year or more to acquire new mixing equipment.[7]



Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that, despite Israeli efforts to "magnify these actions for its own specific agenda”, it would be “misguided” for Iran to overlook the attacks during a speech in Tehran on October 27.[8] Khamenei emphasized that Iranian officials will “assess and precisely apprehend what needs to be done” to show Israel "who the Iranian people are.” The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry called on October 26 for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.[9] UN Security Council President Pascale Christine Baeriswyl announced that the council will convene on October 28 to discuss the IDF strikes on Iran.[10]

Hamas has rejected a deal with Israel that would grant Hamas leaders safe passage from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages. Hamas’ rejection indicates that the group has not accepted defeat and calculates that it can survive and recover in the Gaza Strip. Mossad Director David Barnea proposed the deal in a recent meeting with Egyptian officials.[11] Senior Hamas official Khalil al Hayya rejected the proposal and reiterated Hamas’ intent to continue fighting for influence in the Gaza Strip.[12] Hamas is exploiting the lack of a post-war plan for the Gaza Strip by lobbying for the establishment of a national unity government with the Palestinian Authority (PA). Hamas likely calculates that it could slowly coopt and control any unity government with the PA and thereby retain a prominent role in post-war governance in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas rejecting the deal that would protect its leaders supports CTP-ISW's assessment that the death of Yahya Sinwar is unlikely to prompt a shift in Hamas strategy in the war. Sinwar similarly rejected a deal with Israel that would grant him safety in September 2024.[13] CTP-ISW assessed at the time that Sinwar would almost certainly reject the deal due to his deep commitment to fighting and destroying Israel.[14] Hamas will likely continue to engage in ceasefire-hostage negotiations with Israel in order to secure its maximalist demands, such as the IDF withdrawing completely from the Gaza Strip. Hamas officials and international negotiators are currently in Doha for further talks.[15]

Key Takeaways:

  • Iran: The IDF inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network in its strikes on October 25. This is in addition to the disruption that the IDF may have imposed on the Iranian ability to build missiles.
  • Gaza Strip: Hamas rejected a deal with Israel that would grant Hamas leaders safe passage from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages. Hamas’ rejection indicates that the group has not accepted defeat and calculates that it can survive and recover from the war.

Institute for the Study of War

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
Yup. Hamas, Hez, + various Iraqi militias have all been whacked. The logistics and supply chains to these groups have also been severely compromised.

Also Israel took out their main Long/mid-range AD sites which effectively means they are now wide open to attack.

They look weak, because they now are weak.
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Piece on the Hezbollah situation from ISW
.

Hezbollah’s Military Forces Are Failing in Lebanon

By Brian Carter, Middle East Portfolio Manager at the Critical Threats Project (CTP)

October 28, 2024

Lebanese Hezbollah is attempting to obfuscate the reality that its military forces in southern Lebanon are disorganized and conducting ineffective military operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Hezbollah’s military forces have been badly damaged and disrupted by Israeli military action. Israeli forces entered Lebanon on October 1 to destroy Hezbollah’s ability to threaten northern Israeli communities.[1] The operation has so far successfully destroyed and disrupted many of the capabilities required for Hezbollah to threaten northern Israel.[2] Hezbollah is attempting to present itself as a competent, confident military organization, but it has so far failed to effectively execute any major military campaign at scale. Hezbollah’s degradation and severe disruption is likely temporary, however, and the group can reconstitute if Israeli operations end soon.

The IDF entered Lebanon in force on October 1 after a months-long air and ground campaign that disrupted Hezbollah’s command structure.[3] The entrance of large Israeli forces into Lebanon on October 1 was the culmination of a months-long campaign combining special operations, covert operations, and airpower that disrupted and degraded Hezbollah forces along the border.[4] The five Israeli divisions currently operating in Lebanon have continued to disrupt and destroy Hezbollah forces there.[5] The IDF ground force in Lebanon is supported by a continued air campaign against Hezbollah supplies, finances, and leaders throughout the country.[6] Lebanese social media pages continue to report the deaths of Hezbollah commanders on a near-daily basis, demonstrating the continued IDF pressure against Hezbollah forces.[7]

Hezbollah has so far failed to effectively execute any serious military undertaking at scale. Hezbollah likely planned to execute one of several possible tactical tasks in response to an Israeli ground operation:

  • Hezbollah could have decided to defend key infrastructure or Shia towns along the border. A defending force aggressively seeks to hold ground or destroy the attacking force.[8] Hezbollah would presumably decisively engage its combat forces and employ more sophisticated tactics in a defense were it executing a defense effectively. Hezbollah has engaged Israeli forces, but it has not conducted any sophisticated multi-stage ambushes. Hezbollah has instead relied upon rocket and mortar shelling to harass Israeli positions.[9] Rockets and mortars cannot defend ground alone, and would need to be combined with infantry to effectively defend against Israeli attacks. These rocket and mortar attacks also are not limiting the IDF’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield or causing the IDF to change its overall scheme of maneuver.[10] Coordinating between infantry forces and artillery is a difficult command-and-control task that may not be possible given the current state of Hezbollah’s communications and command network.
  • Hezbollah, having suffered command-and-control disruption, could have conducted an orderly withdrawal in order to reorganize itself out-of-contact with Israeli ground forces. A withdrawal is when a force in contact with the enemy force moves away from the enemy force.[11] A force conducting an orderly withdrawal evacuates or destroys its supplies to prevent the attacking force from capturing them.[12] Hezbollah did not evacuate even its most prized, high-end supplies, like Kornet anti-tank missile launchers or night-vision goggles, instead allowing these supplies to fall into Israeli hands.[13]
  • Hezbollah could also have conducted a delaying operation, trading space for time to force a ceasefire or allow disrupted Hezbollah units to reconstitute. A force “under pressure” executes a delay to trade space for time to slow down an attacking force’s momentum without, in principle, becoming decisively engaged.[14] A delay, like a withdrawal, is one form of a retrograde operation. Hezbollah forces executing a delay would presumably also attempt to evacuate or destroy its supplies to prevent Israeli capture.
Hezbollah forces have executed none of these tasks coherently, instead showing limited resistance in some sectors while abandoning others in a way that shows no clear plan or pattern of operations. Hezbollah’s failure so far demonstrates that its military forces are in disarray.

Hezbollah’s media arms and senior leaders have attempted to obfuscate Hezbollah’s disarray by presenting the group as competent, confident, and successfully defending Lebanon. Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General and public face Naim Qassem said on October 15 that the group was successfully fighting the Israelis and dismissed Israel’s claims about Hezbollah’s losses.[15] Unspecified Lebanese officials, a Lebanese official who “meets regularly with Hezbollah,” and a Lebanese source “close to Hezbollah” spoke to the Washington Post and attempted to frame the group as highly capable and successful defenders of southern Lebanon.[16] Hezbollah has also routinely claimed it “hits” Merkava tanks with anti-tank missiles but has yet to publish any evidence indicating that these “hits” knocked tanks out of action or slowed Israeli operations.[17] Hezbollah would presumably publish evidence of destroyed vehicles, given that it has a vested interest in portraying its “defensive” operations as effective.

Criticisms directed at the IDF’s slow pace of operations ignore Israeli operational design and lessons learned in the Gaza Strip. Some Lebanese officials implied that the Israeli operation is failing because IDF forces have not penetrated deep into Lebanon.[18] The IDF’s slow movement is a deliberate choice designed to root out and destroy Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure methodically. This approach was presumably derived from a lesson learned in the Gaza Strip, where after a relatively rapid armored assault, the IDF slowed its pace of operations and began methodically reentering areas and ripping out subterranean and above-ground infrastructure.[19]

Israeli forces will need to undertake additional activities to maintain Hezbollah’s degradation and disruption, but current Israeli tactical and operational efforts appear to have routed Hezbollah units at least in the immediate border area. Hezbollah’s degradation and severe disruption is temporary, however, and the group will recover absent sufficient Israeli pressure. If Israeli air operations targeting Hezbollah forces and commanders behind the lines slacken—due either to an IDF decision to prioritize close air support or to a political decision to slow strikes—Hezbollah will be able to reorganize, refit, and become more effective. Persistent IDF airstrikes combined with the IDF’s advances are likely disrupting reorganization efforts, however.


Institute for the Study of War

Lebanese Hezbollah is attempting to obfuscate the reality that its military forces in southern Lebanon are disorganized and conducting ineffective military operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Hezbollah’s military forces have been badly d
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
bluestevon said:
Did you notice that the Iranian girls filming her are basically mocking her or that pass you.
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What`s that got to do with anything ?

Her defiance has probably condemned herself to torture at best and or execution at worst and you`re more concerned about the other girls laughing at her ?

You`re a strange one you mate.
 
COYBL25 said:
What`s that got to do with anything ?

Her defiance has probably condemned herself to torture at best and or execution at worst and you`re more concerned about the other girls laughing at her ?

You`re a strange one you mate.
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No mate, what I am saying if you take the time to actually listen rather than to Juno the gun is this

The video will be used to display how Iranians feel, they will ignore the people taking the videos comments

Why, because they don't fit the narrative they want to portray.

Btw, Iran I feel is a horrible oppressive regime, does this video prove it, no, if anything it shows the opposite

It shows police being unsure how to handle the situation and it shows young girls filming basically calling her crazy and laughing at her.
 
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