Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

[JimmyJeffers]

Downtown San Francisco commercial real estate currently has a vacancy rate of anywhere between 35%-70%. Historically a vacancy rate in any CRE market of 20% or more would be considered extremely bad. We are watching in real time a political party ruin a perfectly good city. Dems have ran plenty of rust belt/Southern cities into the ground. This is possibly their first time ruining a city that has, in theory, every advantage in the world over it's major competitors.

lol Have you been to downtown San Francisco often?

 

[dylsexicbleu]

And so you pulled your numbers out of where??? The vacancy, the cell phone usage?

A real estate bod in San Fran. The numbers given were 30-35% unoccupied, much more than this if you include vacant(leased but the company had moved out). He didn't give a specific figure. I'm pretty sure very, very few people know the true unoccupied + vacant rate. Cell phone data falling 70% though gives us something close to an upper estimate. I can't guarantee foot traffick and empty real estate have also fallen off by 70% but it's probably not far off 70%. Vast swathes of the population don't suddenly stop using their mobile phones.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

A real estate bod in San Fran. The numbers given were 30-35% unoccupied, much more than this if you include vacant(leased but the company had moved out). He didn't give a specific figure. I'm pretty sure very, very few people know the true unoccupied + vacant rate. Cell phone data falling 70% though gives us something close to an upper estimate. I can't guarantee foot traffick and empty real estate have also fallen off by 70% but it's probably not far off 70%. Vast swathes of the population don't suddenly stop using their mobile phones.

Didn’t you try to tell me you weren’t a yank?!!!

 

[dylsexicbleu]

Didn’t you try to tell me you weren’t a yank?!!!

Information can be passed from person to person in a variety of ways in 2023. We even have mass communication! It's strange that a person posting with such a communication device would assume I must have spoken face to face to get information from a person.

 

[Bishop Thumpety-Thump]

Information can be passed from person to person in a variety of ways in 2023. We even have mass communication! It's strange that a person posting with such a communication device would assume I must have spoken face to face to get information from a person.

So are you denying you’re American still? I mean, I can understand why you might lie about that, it must be pretty embarrassing these days. Just it’s difficult to take anything you say seriously if you’re known to be a liar x

 

[dylsexicbleu]

So are you denying you’re American still? I mean, I can understand why you might lie about that, it must be pretty embarrassing these days. Just it’s difficult to take anything you say seriously if you’re known to be a liar x

Yes, anyone saying I'm American is a cotton pickin liar.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Information can be passed from person to person in a variety of ways in 2023. We even have mass communication! It's strange that a person posting with such a communication device would assume I must have spoken face to face to get information from a person.

You have outed yourself even further as an out an out bullshi77er

 

[JimmyJeffers]

-Something something % something something.
-Those figures are wrong
-Damn lies and statistics
-Where’s you get those figures from anyways?
-Oh a mate told me

Like a repeat of Chomsky vs Foucault this

 

[Bishop Thumpety-Thump]

Yes, anyone saying I'm American is a cotton pickin liar.

Yup, you certainly are.

 

[dylsexicbleu]

-Something something % something something.
-Those figures are wrong
-Damn lies and statistics
-Where’s you get those figures from anyways?
-Oh a mate told me

Like a repeat of Chomsky vs Foucault this

Virtually no-one knows the precise figures, these things aren't calculated on a weekly basis and then and given out to the public. A 30% unoccupied rate is often quoted and that may be close to accurate. You can add to this all those businesses who are still paying their lease but have moved out. The rate of occupancy is only going to fall as leases expire. The mobile phone activity is found in the link. If mobile activity is down by almost 70% in downtown San Fran it suggests things such as real estate occupancy and foot traffic have fallen by a similar level. As I stated, anywhere between 30+%-70%
https://www.statista.com/chart/29722/cellphone-activity-in-north-american-downtowns/

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Virtually no-one knows the precise figures, these things aren't calculated on a weekly basis and then and given out to the public. A 30% unoccupied rate is often quoted and that may be close to accurate. You can add to this all those businesses who are still paying their lease but have moved out. The rate of occupancy is only going to fall as leases expire. The mobile phone activity is found in the link. If mobile activity is down by almost 70% in downtown San Fran it suggests things such as real estate occupancy and foot traffic have fallen by a similar level. As I stated, anywhere between 30+%-70%
https://www.statista.com/chart/29722/cellphone-activity-in-north-american-downtowns/

the deep state runs deeper than I thought of the dems have caused this to happen in Vancouver as well. We must stand together with our San Fran brothers and get people back in the office.

 

[Moomin]

Information can be passed from person to person in a variety of ways in 2023. We even have mass communication! It's strange that a person posting with such a communication device would assume I must have spoken face to face to get information from a person.

Was this person smoking crack at the time?

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

People from San Francisco generally hate the term San Fran so unless it's a very elaborate double bluff I'm ruling out @dylsexicbleu originating from that particular city at least.

 

[LinekersLegs]

People from San Francisco generally hate the term San Fran so unless it's a very elaborate double bluff I'm ruling out @dylsexicbleu originating from that particular city at least.

A bit of tell too about not appreciating that if there is a lot of office real estate unused that repurposing it could really help fix the chronic shortage of housing in the city. Also that overextension by cashrich tech firms followed by WFH has likely been far more of a driver of the change in commercial real estate occupancy than any political policy.

Even with all the tech layoffs we’ve had in the Bay Area the unemployment rate in San Francisco in April was 2.6%, less than national average so “driving into the ground“ seems a tad hyperbolic.

https://labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf

The area has always been prone to boom/bust cycles and perhaps there will be a bust cycle in the near term but at least atm the overall local economy is showing far more resilience than during the dot com bust, even if CRE is getting hit hard.

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

A bit of tell too about not appreciating that if there is a lot of office real estate unused that repurposing it could really help fix the chronic shortage of housing in the city. Also that overextension by cashrich tech firms followed by WFH has likely been far more of a driver of the change in commercial real estate occupancy than any political policy.

Even with all the tech layoffs we’ve had in the Bay Area the unemployment rate in San Francisco in April was 2.6%, less than national average so “driving into the ground“ seems a tad extreme.

https://labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf

The area has always been prone to boom/bust cycles and perhaps there will be a bust cycle in the near term but at least atm the overall local economy is showing far more resilience than during the dot com bust, even if CRE is getting hit hard.

I feel like Watson to Sherlock Legs now.