Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

[FrenchDarrenBent]

All the analytics aside, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are all in danger of flipping red if the democratic turnout is just a fraction lower than in the 2020 election.
Ohio and Florida are pretty solid republican territory under Trump.

Big victory speeches, smugness and indulging in wishful thinking won't help the 2024 cause.

DeSantis will look like a young Ted Cruz when he gets on that debate stage. I doubt he'll beat Trump at his own game.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[RAFUH]

I'd be interested in an explanation of the actual GOP policy plan as well

 

[Ruairi77]

I just can't find any data saying it was the major reason for motivating the younger voters. It certainly didn't hurt and certainly helped. And the majority of Democrats, including me, approve of debt relief. But the motivating reasons for why young people voted was Dobbs, gun control, economy, and threat to democracy. For example, these are data from the Harvard youth poll (voters 18-29) that I posted a few pages back. The exit poll data show pretty much the same story: Crime, guns, Abortion, Economy are the top issues.

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Fair enough. I guess, being in the business, I’m probably getting a skewed opinion.

 

[tsubaki]

I'd be interested in an explanation of the actual GOP policy plan as well

is it still "the same as 2016"?

 

[Martin Alvito]

is it still "the same as 2016"?

It hasn't changed all that much since Buckley, really. 'Build a time machine to 1955, but take the computers and smartphones with, and everything will be fine.' Their internal schism seems to be over whether or not they want to nip the whole oral contraceptive thing in the bud.

None of them seem to have figured out that part of the reason things worked back then was that the top federal income tax bracket was 91%. Government works better when you feed it, rather than starve the beast.

 

[RAFUH]

It hasn't changed all that much since Buckley, really. 'Build a time machine to 1955, but take the computers and smartphones with, and everything will be fine.' Their internal schism seems to be over whether or not they want to nip the whole oral contraceptive thing in the bud.

None of them seem to have figured out that part of the reason things worked back then was that the top federal income tax bracket was 91%. Government works better when you feed it, rather than starve the beast.

Socially/culturally maybe 1950, but that was pre-trickle down and corporations as people....so an idealized "Leave it to Beaver" 1950s, but with Reaganomics

​

 

[TN Toffee]

I'd be interested in an explanation of the actual GOP policy plan as well

I think we all would. Their 2020 platform was literally “Help Donald Trump continue making America great again.”

 

[carolinablue232]

Both parties need new blood leading them. Geriatric leaders have had their day……

100% No idea who, but fresh blood is needed.

 

[carolinablue232]

That’s pretty funny. I do bet if they didn’t put a letter next to their name in the poll, it would be about 50/50. College kids are very much a herd mentality group.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Wonder if those Senators saw what happened with Dobbs and want to head off the Supreme Court doing the same thing with gay marriage?

 

[Martin Alvito]

100% No idea who, but fresh blood is needed.

If you're looking for younger candidates among the Democratic governors, it's pretty much Whitmer and Newsom. Beshear had a rocky run at the start of COVID, so he's probably out. I don't think people are likely to perceive Polis as electable in a general.

The Republican bench is even thinner. Youngkin and Stitt would be extremely questionable choices, Sununu is kind of a lightweight and Reeves is unelectable. I think DeSantis is a tough sell in a general. They would be a lot better off running Cox, but there's no way he wins a national Republican primary.

Senators tend not to win presidential elections, because there's always something to pick at in the voting record. When they do, it's usually ones like Kennedy and Obama with short records. Warnock has the advantage of everyone knowing who he is. I can see people in the Democratic Party warming to Murphy. If they just wanted to win, it's Mark Kelly all day long and twice on Sunday.

The Republicans don't have any young senators who aren't tainted by election denial or voting against the Jan. 6 commission, so that's a problem. IMO they're running a governor next cycle, unless they run Trump.

 

[LinekersLegs]

If you're looking for younger candidates among the Democratic governors, it's pretty much Whitmer and Newsom. Beshear had a rocky run at the start of COVID, so he's probably out. I don't think people are likely to perceive Polis as electable in a general.

The Republican bench is even thinner. Youngkin and Stitt would be extremely questionable choices, Sununu is kind of a lightweight and Reeves is unelectable. I think DeSantis is a tough sell in a general. They would be a lot better off running Cox, but there's no way he wins a national Republican primary.

Senators tend not to win presidential elections, because there's always something to pick at in the voting record. When they do, it's usually ones like Kennedy and Obama with short records. Warnock has the advantage of everyone knowing who he is. I can see people in the Democratic Party warming to Murphy. If they just wanted to win, it's Mark Kelly all day long and twice on Sunday.

The Republicans don't have any young senators who aren't tainted by election denial or voting against the Jan. 6 commission, so that's a problem. IMO they're running a governor next cycle, unless they run Trump.

I doubt his wife would be keen, First Lady is a fairly thankless task even when you are in robust health and iirc she still suffers from aphasia from the shooting. In theory it is something we should not expect of the partner but in practice hard to get out of a lot of ceremonial workload.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I doubt his wife would be keen, First Lady is a fairly thankless task even when you are in robust health and iirc she still suffers from aphasia from the shooting. In theory it is something we should not expect of the partner but in practice hard to get out of a lot of ceremonial workload.

I think we would see very substantive changes to the First Lady role if he were elected, which is probably overdue. He would need a real glad-hander of a VP, and Cabinet members would probably collectively end up shouldering the rest of the burden.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I think we would see very substantive changes to the First Lady role if he were elected, which is probably overdue. He would need a real glad-hander of a VP, and Cabinet members would probably collectively end up shouldering the rest of the burden.

Not really sure that Cabinet positions would have the same impact, plus they have a lot on their plate doing their day jobs.

Could always reinstitute the monarchy