Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[wm02]

The Democrats' problem is that they lack rising stars. This is what happens when the entirety of House leadership is older than God, the party's governors are getting up there and a two-term president succeeded by his vice-president suck all of the oxygen out of the room. Under normal circumstances, someone like Newsom would probably be the next nominee, but California is too far out of step with the rest of the country these days.

The Republicans would have faced much the same problem in 2000 if not for the fact that their last president's son happened to win a big state governor's chair by virtue of having the right name.

I have a hard time seeing anyone other than Biden securing the Democratic nomination if he's alive and healthy. Should something happen to him, it becomes a free-for-all with a lot of hats in the ring.

As I was driving the other day, I passed one of Steny Hoyer’s signs. The font was very similar to the one used by Colonial Williamsburg.
He’s definitely leaning in to being ancient

 

[RAFUH]

To some extent, yes. There are plenty of people who voted for Biden, but are politically to the left of his agenda and are unhappy with him. That doesn’t mean that they’re ever going to cross the aisle and vote Republican, but rather may choose to either vote for a statistically insignificant third candidate, or simply not vote at all because they don’t feel there is a candidate who represents their interests.

Unlike Republicans, whose coalition is basically just the wealthy and the Evangelicals, the Democratic coalition is far more wide ranging. Also, the Republican coalition tends to be much more reliable about showing up to the polls EVERY single time. Given that the path to victory for Democrats is largely turnout based, having even a small portion of that coalition not show up because they’re uninterested could be disastrous.

I’ve been generally satisfied with the job Biden has done so far, but there’s no denying that A LOT of people who cast a vote for him were actually casting a vote AGAINST Trump. If/when Trump eventually starts to fade into the background, it’s going to be important for the Democrats to find a candidate that people truly want to vote FOR.

This goes both ways. Go too far left and the Dems lose moderate Democrats and independents.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Lots of discussion on here with some good points.

I'm of the mindset that Biden's win in 2020 and the midterms going the Dems' way is more from a rejection of Trumpism than running toward anything Biden created.

Biden will win in 2024 if Trumpism still exists. And it's likely it will. Even if DeSantis somehow wins the nomination, the American people don't want that. They might go for a more moderate-sounding Republican, if that is something that exists any more, but the midterms have shown that unless you're in Deep Red country, most people are running away from Trumpism. And too many Republicans are on record supporting it

 

[tsubaki]

I don't think it's bollocks. The leftwing young voters are online; they are politically energized by sources us old folks didn't grow up with nor think important. Do you think anyone (broadly speaking) under age 25 even bothered to watch Biden's "threat to Democracy" television address to the nation on November 3rd, which appears to be the only substantive campainging he did this election cycle? I don't.

Obama is credited with energizing the young vote, but this was during a presidential election year. Biden surely can't claim the same credit during a midterm election when his popularity among young democrat voters is palpably down. No one is hoping for a magic wand one-stop solution, but one can certainly imagine what a young fresh-faced presidential candidate could do with this momentum in 2024, as did Obama in 2008.

TBF I do wonder whether the absence of a leader is what actually results in more engagement at low levels, in terms of organizing and developing policy within communities, which translates into "unexpected" results like this. If some bright young thing was appointed as "the candidate", would we see such behaviour or would the centre corral everyone again into set positions based on the candidate's interest rather than the people's? I rather think we all know the answer to that one.

We are all so used to manufactured and machine politics that we forget how truly effective people are when they genuine, aren't compromised by special interests and are determined to do their best for their communities and country. In a horrific way this is why MAGA is such a dangerous thing of course - they all really believe it and really do put themselves out.

 

[tsubaki]

Lots of discussion on here with some good points.

I'm of the mindset that Biden's win in 2020 and the midterms going the Dems' way is more from a rejection of Trumpism than running toward anything Biden created.

Biden will win in 2024 if Trumpism still exists. And it's likely it will. Even if DeSantis somehow wins the nomination, the American people don't want that. They might go for a more moderate-sounding Republican, if that is something that exists any more, but the midterms have shown that unless you're in Deep Red country, most people are running away from Trumpism. And too many Republicans are on record supporting it

I agree to an extent, if DeSantis runs on being Trumpist and bangs the woke drum (which is a high likelyhood). If he runs on being competent, then I think Biden has real problems (I think much the same about Sunak over here btw - if he fixes this crisis I think Labour are in deep brown stuff).

 

[Ruairi77]

Perhaps he does, but I didn't really see him play a big role in midterms as far as campaigning, and his debt relief wasn't a key motivator among young voters.

This baffles me, yea, it was (despite the fact it's been blocked at every turn.)
I work with a lot of community colleges/state schools and the fact that the Dems are even trying is a huge motivator for lots of students/recent graduates.
Dobbs was #1
But actively trying to do something about debt forgiveness was right up there.
There was record turnout in 18-30 year olds.

 

[wm02]

I agree to an extent, if DeSantis runs on being Trumpist and bangs the woke drum (which is a high likelyhood). If he runs on being competent, then I think Biden has real problems (I think much the same about Sunak over here btw - if he fixes this crisis I think Labour are in deep brown stuff).

Shades of the ‘92 election for me if it’s Biden v. DeSantis.

Albeit without Ross Perot and his voodoo stick

 

[TN Toffee]

This goes both ways. Go too far left and the Dems lose moderate Democrats and independents.

Absolutely. The only difference is that in your scenario, there’s an actual chance those people might go vote Republican. It’s just about impossible to please everyone when you are such a big tent party.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Absolutely. The only difference is that in your scenario, there’s an actual chance those people might go vote Republican. It’s just about impossible to please everyone when you are such a big tent party.

And this is the ultimate question - has Trumpism hurt the GOP so badly long term that Democrats really don't need to worry about going too far left anymore, b/c MAGA has shown its true colors.

In the past, I had always thought sensible moderation and center-leftism was the only way to move forward, so you don't alienate moderates who might vote for a center-right candidate. The safe approach

How many of those are left? In this environment, I could see a case for going as progressive as possible b/c the alternative is wacko so no sensible person is voting that way anyway

 

[tsubaki]

And this is the ultimate question - has Trumpism hurt the GOP so badly long term that Democrats really don't need to worry about going too far left anymore, b/c MAGA has shown its true colors.

In the past, I had always thought sensible moderation and center-leftism was the only way to move forward, so you don't alienate moderates who might vote for a center-right candidate. The safe approach

How many of those are left? In this environment, I could see a case for going as progressive as possible b/c the alternative is wacko so no sensible person is voting that way anyway

This is why I think the answer to ideological fervour (which is where roads on the far right, centre and "far left"* lead) is competence.

A politician who can say "well, I've done this and this and this, I've proved I am not out for myself by this and what I want to do are these obviously fair and correct things that will benefit you by doing this and causing that" is going to have a huge advantage over a loonspud of whatever stripe.

 

[Ruairi77]

This is why I think the answer to ideological fervour (which is where roads on the far right, centre and "far left"* lead) is competence.

A politician who can say "well, I've done this and this and this, I've proved I am not out for myself by this and what I want to do are these obviously fair and correct things that will benefit you by doing this and causing that" is going to have a huge advantage over a loonspud of whatever stripe.

go team loonspud!

 

[verreauxi]

This baffles me, yea, it was (despite the fact it's been blocked at every turn.)
I work with a lot of community colleges/state schools and the fact that the Dems are even trying is a huge motivator for lots of students/recent graduates.
Dobbs was #1
But actively trying to do something about debt forgiveness was right up there.
There was record turnout in 18-30 year olds.

I just can't find any data saying it was the major reason for motivating the younger voters. It certainly didn't hurt and certainly helped. And the majority of Democrats, including me, approve of debt relief. But the motivating reasons for why young people voted was Dobbs, gun control, economy, and threat to democracy. For example, these are data from the Harvard youth poll (voters 18-29) that I posted a few pages back. The exit poll data show pretty much the same story: Crime, guns, Abortion, Economy are the top issues.