Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

[Martin Alvito]

Is it conspiracy gymnastics to reason that OPEC+ are intentionally driving up gas prices now to screw over the Democrats in the mid terms?
A republican led house and Senate would be far more advantageous to Russia, Saudi and a host of other members.

It's not. Biden is no friend to the Saudis or Putin, and attempts at intervention by foreign powers in United States elections are not a new thing.

Since we're talking about policy that those nations reasonably have the right to set, it would generally be considered a legal move under the 'rules' with malign intent. We're likely to see a lot more of this sort of thing given the current schism between the Saudis and the American left. Good relations between the Saudis and both American parties did a lot to tamp down the possibility of OPEC shenanigans for a good long while.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Is it conspiracy gymnastics to reason that OPEC+ are intentionally driving up gas prices now to screw over the Democrats in the mid terms?
A republican led house and Senate would be far more advantageous to Russia, Saudi and a host of other members.

Part that and part general self interest about the oil price cap probably

 

[Martin Alvito]

Part that and part general self interest about the oil price cap probably

Yes, I agree that there's significant self-interest when it comes to pricing. I would argue that the timing is probably shaped in part by our upcoming election.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Interesting take from Enten, who has an excellent track record:

Election denier Kari Lake has a real shot of winning a swing state governorship | CNN Politics

One of the big questions heading into the 2022 cycle had been how Republican candidates would or not reflect the GOP base when it came to views of the 2020 election. Poll after poll has shown that a clear majority of Republicans falsely believe that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win...

www.cnn.com

 

[LinekersLegs]

Yes, I agree that there's significant self-interest when it comes to pricing. I would argue that the timing is probably shaped in part by our upcoming election.

Iirc Saudi fiscal breakeven on oil price is around $80 a barrel and prices in September dipped below that so even without any other considerations I think they would be wanting to cut back.

 

[verreauxi]

 

[Martin Alvito]

Iirc Saudi fiscal breakeven on oil price is around $80 a barrel and prices in September dipped below that so even without any other considerations I think they would be wanting to cut back.

It's probably lower than that. The problem the Saudis generally have is that they can produce it at rock-bottom prices, but they can't produce very much at those prices since they've already extracted most of the contents of those wells.

It got to the point where some heavy-hitters wrote an open letter to the dean to drive him out of Columbia. It looks like the way the university eventually handled the mess was to shuffle him out of the active faculty and into an emeritus position once he started his Senate bid. I presume they weren't in a hurry to do that earlier because he was bringing in research dollars.

 

[LinekersLegs]

It's probably lower than that. The problem the Saudis generally have is that they can produce it at rock-bottom prices, but they can't produce very much at those prices since they've already extracted most of the contents of those wells.


It got to the point where some heavy-hitters wrote an open letter to the dean to drive him out of Columbia. It looks like the way the university eventually handled the mess was to shuffle him out of the active faculty and into an emeritus position once he started his Senate bid. I presume they weren't in a hurry to do that earlier because he was bringing in research dollars.

Gulf fiscal breakeven oil prices

Reuters charts, maps and graphics

graphics.reuters.com

These were the 2022 forecasts although the SA might have lowered to closer to $70

 

[Martin Alvito]

Gulf fiscal breakeven oil prices

Reuters charts, maps and graphics

graphics.reuters.com

These were the 2022 forecasts although the SA might have lowered to closer to $70

Right, as oil prices came down they probably took the more expensive production facilities offline. Their breakeven with prices north of $100 a barrel is going to be higher than when the price is in the $80-90 range.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

It's such a cruel twist of fate that Fetterman had that stroke when he did, in this all important mid term coming up.

If he didn't have that stroke, Fetterman would have handed Oz an utter beat down, much like Shapiro is going to give Mastriano for governor.

However, there is an uncomfortableness brewing around here that Fetterman/Oz is inexplicably going to be closer than originally thought. While the fact there is a gubernatorial race happening in November is certainly a good thing for Fetterman, I fear we are still going to have to sweat the Senate race out.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I don't see how they pass that until December. It can't be slid in under the fast-track provision for trade agreements, and the Senate parliamentarian would cough up her skull if they tried to get it through under budget reconciliation. Paradoxically, it seems like a way for people like Oz, Walker and the relatively few endangered Republicans in the Senate to get on record saying they would do something broadly popular with independents if elected.

I wouldn't play that card. Yet.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I don't see how they pass that until December. It can't be slid in under the fast-track provision for trade agreements, and the Senate parliamentarian would cough up her skull if they tried to get it through under budget reconciliation. Paradoxically, it seems like a way for people like Oz, Walker and the relatively few endangered Republicans in the Senate to get on record saying they would do something broadly popular with independents if elected.

I wouldn't play that card. Yet.

Biden’s in a difficult position tbh as he can’t be seen to be powerless against the likely increase in oil prices,

 

[tsubaki]

It is the wrong response though - we all know what we need to do to bin off Russia, OPEC and the rest. It will help save life as we know it on this planet, too.

Cut consumption by a bit and the price comes down; cut it by a lot (as with COVID) and we would start to see real political change in an awful lot of producing countries. Cut it entirely and their economies would be wrecked for the medium to long term.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Biden's in a difficult position tbh as he can’t be seen to be powerless against the likely increase in oil prices,

At the same time, he may do more harm than good by acting now. Rock, meet hard place.

His best play is to find a way to shift the narrative a bit. He wants the conversation to be about Republicans defunding Ukraine and voting for the justices that gave us Dobbs. The question is how to go about doing that.

It is the wrong response though - we all know what we need to do to bin off Russia, OPEC and the rest. It will help save life as we know it on this planet, too.

Cut consumption by a bit and the price comes down; cut it by a lot (as with COVID) and we would start to see real political change in an awful lot of producing countries. Cut it entirely and their economies would be wrecked for the medium to long term.

He can't pay for that through budget reconciliation when his 50th vote is up to his eyeballs with the coal producers. It's a problem.

He probably needs to flip Toomey's chair along with one of Johnson's or Burr's, as well as hold serve everywhere else in the Senate and retain the House, for that one to happen. It's possible, but it would require either a game-changer in the right direction or a systematic polling error. We've seen plenty of those in recent years in both directions, so I wouldn't rule it out.