Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Tubey]

I wonder how many personal or political decisions rely purely on logic.

It's not about purely relying on logic; it's about at least considering it.

That's gone out of the window these days. People seem incapable of learning anything; they just get a pre-set opinion and there it will stay regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

It reminds me of this Stewart Lee sketch.



"Well, you can prove anything with facts, can't you?"

 

[tsubaki]

I take your point, that's not wrong - but it doesn't defy the article.

In a sense, voting because you're angry (and voting for a man who has no regard for you) because your annoyed at the other candidate isn't really logical is it? It's based on emotion, sure, but the US election was The Establishment 1 vs. The Establishment 2.

It does, though. The article claims that both elections were simple choices between truth and untruth, but the people who ran the truth argument were themselves the masters of presenting untruths as truth (as we saw over Iraq, Libya and the rest) so its entirely possible that people just didn't believe them, especially when the only thing that could have corrected it (a free press) is itself so hideously compromised when it comes to telling absolute whoppers.

 

[Old Blue 2]

you think politicians lying is ok so I've no idea how you think You can get on a high horse moralistically after that.

Remainers have consistently criticised the campaign on both sides of the debate in this thread.

The leavers are still peddling the same lies about theirs.

You've got a cheek to mention neutrality like that considering you haven't pulled Old blue up for the £350m figure 2 pages ago

£350 million was the figure bandied about pre-Referendum. Take a read of this joey - interesting: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

At one point it says, after rebates etc., that it's £250 million a week. Still seems to me that we are thowing good money after bad (as the phrase goes).

In the interests of being fair and driving the middle way between what has been stated, and what it actually seems to look like, here's what that article says just over half-way down:
"In 2015, the UK's ‘public sector receipts’ amounted to £4.5 billion
So overall we paid in £8.5 billion more than we got back, or £23 million a day."

Now £23 million a day works out at £161 million per week.
£161 million per week works out at £8,372,000,000 per year.

I would venture to suggest that is a hell of a lot of cabbage to be throwing to the EU buckshee every year... Now some might say that we get this, that & the other from the EU - wrong, that has already been taken into account when arriving at the base figure of (just under by my calculation) £8.5 billion per year.

 

[Tubey]

£350 million was the figure bandied about pre-Referendum. Take a read of this joey - interesting: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

At one point it says, after rebates etc., that it's £250 million a week. Still seems to me that we are thowing good money after bad (as the phrase goes).

In the interests of being fair and driving the middle way between what has been stated, and what it actually seems to look like, here's what that article says just over half-way down:
"In 2015, the UK's ‘public sector receipts’ amounted to £4.5 billion
So overall we paid in £8.5 billion more than we got back, or £23 million a day."

Now £23 million a day works out at £161 million per week.
£161 million per week works out at £8,372,000,000 per year.

I would venture to suggest that is a hell of a lot of cabbage to be throwing to the EU buckshee every year... Now some might say that we get this, that & the other from the EU - wrong, that has already been taken into account when arriving at the base figure of (just under by my calculation) £8.5 billion per year.

Look, you're just wrong. We get a net advantage of around 4-5% of our GDP per year from being members of the EU. There's absolutely no way we don't get an economic benefit from being in the EU. So you're simply wrong, sorry but you are.

The truth is you are not interested in learning that information because it doesn't conform with your predisposed views.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I think that the breakup of the entire EU could lead to a Cold War situation of sorts, with the possibillity of Russia attempting to make gains in former Soviet states - but I don't think that Britain unilaterally leaving the EU is likely to cause this.

If you cast your mind back to what Cameron said back then, he said that the EU had "helped reconcile" countries and maintain peace, and that leaving would not help that. Nowhere did he say that on the 24th June war would break out, and it's typical of the infantile manner of much of this debate (not aimed at you btw) that this is even trotted out as a factor.

What we have had happen since the 23rd June:

- Trump has been elected president of the US, with Brexit, and Brexit style rhetoric a major factor in that
- He has stated numerous times during his campaigning that he thinks NATO is silly and America should reduce contributions to it
- Far right populist parties have gained ground throughout Europe, all of whom having referred to Brexit in support of what they're doing. This leads to the very real possibility of several European countries having far-right governments in the next year.
- Russia has become increasingly active on the international stage, both militarily in Syria but also with its involvement in the American election. Whilst we haven't influenced that directly, Russia undoubtedly gains from a disjointed NATO and a disjointed EU.

So once we get past this rather silly belief that wars happen over night and instead say that they are usually the result of a much longer chain of events, I'm not sure how anyone could really say that what has happened since Brexit has made the world a safer place. Indeed, it feels as divided as it has been for a very long time.

I put this very much in the same bucket as claims about the economy and Osborne's post-Brexit budget. We had a situation on the morning of the result where both the markets and the pound fell off a cliff, with the actions of Mark Carney and the BoE doing a great deal to steady the ship. It would have been utter madness to issue a fresh budget on that morning, yet the news this week about the enormous whole in the state budget suggests it's a pill that will need to be taken eventually.

On the one hand you've got complete and utter lies that are lies today, and will be lies tomorrow (the bus claims, Turkey's membership and so on), and on the other hand you've got statements that only an idiot would take to mean it would happen the day after the referendum, such as big holes in state finances and insecurity in Europe.

 

[SNova]

As a recent graduate, an "evidence based" approach to the profession was drilled into us from pretty much day one. None stop. The ones who couldn't get their heads around it to a decent extent were not there three years later wearing silly robes and paying extortionate amounts for a photograph.

On my course half of the people did their dissertation on sexism, racism or some other equality related thing. We would each give a presentation every couple of weeks on our essay and the class would critique it.

I couldn't quite believe how bad their argumentation was with their cherry picked evidence.

It depends on the professors and the course. But you'll find many examples of these SJW types running wild in universities both here and in America.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Look, you're just wrong. We get a net advantage of around 4-5% of our GDP per year from being members of the EU. There's absolutely no way we don't get an economic benefit from being in the EU. So you're simply wrong, sorry but you are.

The truth is you are not interested in learning that information because it doesn't conform with your predisposed views.

Some 400 pages ago, straight from the gov.uk website. I even threadmarked it for easy reference.

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/eu-in-or-out.89343/page-486#post-4887325

 

[Bruce Wayne]

those sort of statements do go some way to proving your point.

'An Expert, is somebody who knows more and more about less and less.'...some call that 'can't see the wood for the trees'
Or
'Experts say in theory; Bumblebees can't fly.
Or
The same experts that built 'The un-sinkable Titanic'
Or
The same Experts who said Brexit would never happen.
Or...

it sounds like the next time you have a health issue you'll be going to see the local mechanic or butcher rather than a doctor. Whadda they know? And doctors are wrong quite often too before that argument about experts being wrong is trotted out.

Seriously though, you have a problem or an issue or whatever. You'll have folks that explore it, examine it, try and apply facts and evidence to make the best decision. Note, I'm not saying it's the perfect decision as quite often it won't be anywhere close, but what's the alternative? That you try and make a decision based upon not exploring it, not examining it, applying no facts or evidence?

 

[Old Blue 2]

Look, you're just wrong. We get a net advantage of around 4-5% of our GDP per year from being members of the EU. There's absolutely no way we don't get an economic benefit from being in the EU. So you're simply wrong, sorry but you are.

The truth is you are not interested in learning that information because it doesn't conform with your predisposed views.

I have shown figures from an independent website. Taken from Government figures. Now if you can't live with that, then that's your problem, not mine. The figures I have calculated, are based on the information from the Treasury, ONS and the UK Statistics Authority. If you dismiss all of those in their entireity because the figures do not suit you personal view, or your preference, then there is nothing more I can do. There is no point in further discussion with you, as you are not prepared to discuss reasonably-founded premises from national sources.

You are wrong, Tubey. You are wrong. The figures I quoted have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with GDP. THey are baseline figures of what goes in to the EU AFTER rebates, paybacks, etc. There is no way on God's earth you can claim that there will be any difference in the GDP (either way, up or down) when Brexit has been concluded and a reasonable period of settling down has occurred. For the simple reason that neither you, nor anybody else, can look into the future and state what will happen with cast-iron certainty...

The baseline figures of what we basically 'give away' to the EU each year are there. Take them or leave them, but don't obfuscate and try to advance a view that they are meaningless because of GDP...

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

If you cast your mind back to what Cameron said back then, he said that the EU had "helped reconcile" countries and maintain peace, and that leaving would not help that. Nowhere did he say that on the 24th June war would break out, and it's typical of the infantile manner of much of this debate (not aimed at you btw) that this is even trotted out as a factor.

What we have had happen since the 23rd June:

- Trump has been elected president of the US, with Brexit, and Brexit style rhetoric a major factor in that
- He has stated numerous times during his campaigning that he thinks NATO is silly and America should reduce contributions to it
- Far right populist parties have gained ground throughout Europe, all of whom having referred to Brexit in support of what they're doing. This leads to the very real possibility of several European countries having far-right governments in the next year.
- Russia has become increasingly active on the international stage, both militarily in Syria but also with its involvement in the American election. Whilst we haven't influenced that directly, Russia undoubtedly gains from a disjointed NATO and a disjointed EU.

So once we get past this rather silly belief that wars happen over night and instead say that they are usually the result of a much longer chain of events, I'm not sure how anyone could really say that what has happened since Brexit has made the world a safer place. Indeed, it feels as divided as it has been for a very long time.

I put this very much in the same bucket as claims about the economy and Osborne's post-Brexit budget. We had a situation on the morning of the result where both the markets and the pound fell off a cliff, with the actions of Mark Carney and the BoE doing a great deal to steady the ship. It would have been utter madness to issue a fresh budget on that morning, yet the news this week about the enormous whole in the state budget suggests it's a pill that will need to be taken eventually.

On the one hand you've got complete and utter lies that are lies today, and will be lies tomorrow (the bus claims, Turkey's membership and so on), and on the other hand you've got statements that only an idiot would take to mean it would happen the day after the referendum, such as big holes in state finances and insecurity in Europe.

I totally agree that Trump's election and his views towards Russia, NATO and the US's wider role in the world are dangerous and may have the effect that you state - how much of an effect Brexit had in the result in the US is up for debate. I know Trump cited it as some great example for him to follow. I feel that he would have won even if we had voted to remain, but I have no evidence to back this up, purely conjecture.

With regards to far right populist parties in Europe - I hadn't thought too much about this, but if you're right and Brexit boosts their share of their vote and sees them forming governments then I would sadly concede that the effects of Brexit are contributing to a more dangerous world.

The financial effects DEFINITELY make for a more uncertain world - but I do feel that the EU is going to come out of this far better than the UK will.

To conclude, I think that Trump's election is far more dangerous than Brexit with regards to east-west tensions. I can't provide any evidence about how Brexit may have affected his campaign and election. The rise of the populist right in Europe would be a danger to peace if it happens, I'd not considered that in much depth before now.

 

[Tubey]

I have shown figures from an independent website. Taken from Government figures. Now if you can't live with that, then that's your problem, not mine. The figures I have calculated, are based on the information from the Treasury, ONS and the UK Statistics Authority. If you dismiss all of those in their entireity because the figures do not suit you personal view, or your preference, then there is nothing more I can do. There is no point in further discussion with you, as you are not prepared to discuss reasonably-founded premises from national sources.

You are wrong, Tubey. You are wrong. The figures I quoted have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with GDP. THey are baseline figures of what goes in to the EU AFTER rebates, paybacks, etc. There is no way on God's earth you can claim that there will be any difference in the GDP (either way, up or down) when Brexit has been concluded and a reasonable period of settling down has occurred. For the simple reason that neither you, nor anybody else, can look into the future and state what will happen with cast-iron certainty...

The baseline figures of what we basically 'give away' to the EU each year are there. Take them or leave them, but don't obfuscate and try to advance a view that they are meaningless because of GDP...

*sigh*

In your world, the value of a thing is irrelevant and any entrance fee is the be all, end all. So if you paid for a ticket to Disney World, you'd consider that 'giving away' that money for 'nothing'.

Ridiculous.

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

I have shown figures from an independent website. Taken from Government figures. Now if you can't live with that, then that's your problem, not mine. The figures I have calculated, are based on the information from the Treasury, ONS and the UK Statistics Authority. If you dismiss all of those in their entireity because the figures do not suit you personal view, or your preference, then there is nothing more I can do. There is no point in further discussion with you, as you are not prepared to discuss reasonably-founded premises from national sources.

You are wrong, Tubey. You are wrong. The figures I quoted have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with GDP. THey are baseline figures of what goes in to the EU AFTER rebates, paybacks, etc. There is no way on God's earth you can claim that there will be any difference in the GDP (either way, up or down) when Brexit has been concluded and a reasonable period of settling down has occurred. For the simple reason that neither you, nor anybody else, can look into the future and state what will happen with cast-iron certainty...

The baseline figures of what we basically 'give away' to the EU each year are there. Take them or leave them, but don't obfuscate and try to advance a view that they are meaningless because of GDP...

Surely you're not denying that there is a link between our status within the EU and our GBP?

 

[Old Blue 2]

*sigh*

In your world, the value of a thing is irrelevant and any entrance fee is the be all, end all. So if you paid for a ticket to Disney World, you'd consider that 'giving away' that money for 'nothing'.

Ridiculous.

Sorry, YOU are being ridiculous with the above post to me...

Tell you what, you buy one of my books from me. I'll charge you full price, even though I'll get it at author-discounted rate of 40%. And then you can throw some more money at me at the same time, completely gratis. How does that sound...???

 

[Tubey]

Surely you're not denying that there is a link between our status within the EU and our GBP?

He... he is.

 

[Tubey]

Sorry, YOU are being ridiculous with the above post to me...

Tell you what, you buy one of my books from me. I'll charge you full price, even though I'll get it at author-discounted rate of 40%. And then you can throw some more money at me at the same time, completely gratis. How does that sound...???

How aren't you getting this?

We pay an 'entrance fee' to be in the single market. As a result of that entry fee, we get massive, massive economic benefits which equate to an estimated 4-5% of our GDP per year.

So it's like paying a tenner to get back fifty quid. Yet on your planet, you consider that throwing away the tenner!