Current Affairs EU In or Out

[peteblue]

Currently the EU negotiates on our behalf with the WTO, negotiating tarrifs and other trade related matters like subsidies. Quotas and subsidies are then distributed across member states.

Let's take subsidies as an example of where future difficulties will occur. As a seperate entity from the EU we will have to negotiate our own farming subsidies which will be taken from the EU's current entitlement. Do you seriously not expect there to be problems over the allocation of such a politically sensitive resource (especially in France)?

Will not each member state wish to protect their own interests (not just in farming but in every other industry) at the expense of the UK?

Of course. This will have happened already within the EU, and these sort of details, per country, are already known and have been taking place. So without changing them, because the info for say the last x years is known anyway, we just extricate the numbers, quotas etc for the UK. That will then allow for both the UK and the EU to have an agreed position with the WTO with no change, increased benefit or detrimental effect to any other WTO country. If the EU attempts to change the numbers for its own benefit then both the UK and the EU will have to gain WTO member approval. There is no benefit to either side in having an argument.......

 

[The Esk]

@peteblue Should we remain in the Custom Union ?

 

[peteblue]

@peteblue Should we remain in the Custom Union ?

If we remain within it then, as I understand it, the EU will negotiate for us at the WTO, so on the face of it, no......but I'd be interested in others opinions on the pro's and con's......

Edit....sorry Esk I didn't see the earlier question on the same subject.....

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Tony "It wasn't me, guv" Blair on Radio 4 today.

Urges naughty Brexit voters to be given a chance to mend their ways in a second referendum.

I voted remain, but it does get on my tits how those who voted leave are being made out to be idiots.

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

I voted remain, but it does get on my tits how those who voted leave are being made out to be idiots.

Not all but a lot of them are, I mean if you look at Clint Planet's breakdown of their reasoning above, some of them made the decision on riddiculous grounds.

 

[peteblue]

Not all but a lot of them are, I mean if you look at Clint Planet's breakdown of their reasoning above, some of them made the decision on riddiculous grounds.

But they can at least spell ridiculous........

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

But they can at least spell ridiculous........

I'm sure most of them don't put six or seven full stops after almost every post though

 

[peteblue]

I'm sure most of them don't put six or seven full stops after almost every post though

They are not full stops. They are just dots cunningly disguised......

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Not all but a lot of them are, I mean if you look at Clint Planet's breakdown of their reasoning above, some of them made the decision on riddiculous grounds.

I know what your saying about the piece Clint put up, but with a title like 'Who is to blame for Brexit' then it goes on to virtually have a pop at those who voted to leave,was obviously done by a remainer.

 

[The Esk]

If we remain within it then, as I understand it, the EU will negotiate for us at the WTO, so on the face of it, no......but I'd be interested in others opinions on the pro's and con's......

Edit....sorry Esk I didn't see the earlier question on the same subject.....

The Cabinet was served with a paper on the Customs Union. Research from three seperate organisations suggested a fall in GDP of 4.5% by 2030 as a direct result of leaving the Customs Union. In cash terms the concensus figure is £25 bn per annum.

In order to make good that shortfall Britain would have to increase trade with its 10 largest non European partners by 37% - just to stand still.

The cost of leaving the Customs Union does not seem commensurate with any perceived benefits.

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

They are not full stops. They are just dots cunningly disguised......

Ellipsis is three consecutive full stops mate

I know what your saying about the piece Clint put up, but with a title like 'Who is to blame for Brexit' then it goes on to slate those who voted to leave,was obviously done by a remainer.

Yeah no doubt with a headline like that and not the brightest way to phrase it, but unless they've skewed the stats that they've used, they'd ring true whoever wrote it.

 

[1966efc]

Not all but a lot of them are, I mean if you look at Clint Planet's breakdown of their reasoning above, some of them made the decision on riddiculous grounds.

Would you tell me which of the wise ones on here could give an outline of the history of recessions in the U K? Or a (much shorter) list of those economists with a sound record in forecasting the economic situation, say, a year ahead?

Or, maybe more pertinently, the "experts" who got the current economic situation anywhere near correct before the referendum (and we're only talking three or four months ago)?

Yacking on a footy forum is all well and good but I wouldn't take the musings written here as a basis for labeling some / many / all voters as foolish. To do so looks suspiciously like intellectual arrogance.

 

[peteblue]

The Cabinet was served with a paper on the Customs Union. Research from three seperate organisations suggested a fall in GDP of 4.5% by 2030 as a direct result of leaving the Customs Union. In cash terms the concensus figure is £25 bn per annum.

In order to make good that shortfall Britain would have to increase trade with its 10 largest non European partners by 37% - just to stand still.

The cost of leaving the Customs Union does not seem commensurate with any perceived benefits.

If we leave the Customs Union, we can strike our own deals with other countries which we cannot do if we are a member. However trading with the EU may involve proof of origin and there will be administrative costs. The reverse is true from the EU to the UK, there will have to be proof of origin and they too would have administrative costs but on a bigger number. Therefore there is an incentive for both sides to find a modus operandi that works for us both without either side increasing costs or adding delays.....

 

[joey_macmo]

Ok, I'll boil it down. Companies trade. Companies employ people. Free movement says that companies can employ whomever they want without seeking government permission. They can then use this unfettered workforce to sell anywhere they want in Europe, again without asking anyone else's permission.

It really isn't that difficult.

I import machines from Spain and sell them around Europe, imagine if I could send machines to a plant no problem with very little paperwork and yet had to go through a whole visa process to travel over to install it.

Doesn't make any sense at all.

 

[Pienaar's gloves]

Would you tell me which of the wise ones on here could give an outline of the history of recessions in the U K? Or a (much shorter) list of those economists with a sound record in forecasting the economic situation, say, a year ahead?

Or, maybe more pertinently, the "experts" who got the current economic situation anywhere near correct before the referendum (and we're only talking three or four months ago)?

Yacking on a footy forum is all well and good but I wouldn't take the musings written here as a basis for labeling some / many / all voters as foolish. To do so looks suspiciously like intellectual arrogance.

I'm not that fussed what it looks like, and I don't spend the entirety of my time musing about it on a football forum.

But those reasons are crap (don't like immigrants etc.). I'm sure with the wealth of knowledge at our fingertips, if most of us had half an hour we could draw up an outline of the history of economics downturns on the UK.