Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Mutzo Nutzo]

They’d be the very same people who funded his recent campaign to become PM.

Including the odious Crispin Odey, who was openly talking during the Summer about the plan to prorogue and to try and lure the opposition into an election for October, that the PM would then alter to Nov 5th without the ability to be challenged.

The same Crispin Odey who allowed Rees Mogg to open his first hedge fund under the wing of Odey Asset Management.

The same Crispin Odey who made £220m on the night of the referendum aided and abetted by a certain Mr Farage and his faux conceding of defeat at 10.01 pm.

The same Crispin Odey who has circa £3BN riding on short positions....

But yeah, Brexit is all about sticking it to the elites and the ‘people vs Parliament’.

Oh how they must be pissing themselves at the gullibility that has allowed them to deliver this truly rotten con.

If you’re still buying it now, then you’re either simply refusing to listen or you’re part of it.

***Stands and applauds***

However the vote leave flutes on here will be having none of it.

 

[Tubey]

If Johnson asks for and gets an offer of an extension from the EU does this have to be accepted under the Benn act or go back to parliament for approval or could Johnson just leave it for a day or so and then write back to say he's not interested?

To summarise what the act says:

If, following a request for an extension - but before the end of 30 October 2019 - he gets a deal with the EU, the Prime Minister may withdraw or modify the request.

So he has to request the extension by the 19th. He then can only withdraw it if a deal has been achieved with the EU. He can only withdraw it up until the 30th October, meaning that if he brought a 'fake' deal back to the Commons or pretended to have one, the Commons can then use the 24 hours before the deadline to take executive power and request the extension is fulfilled.

 

[Tubey]

To summarise what the act says:

If, following a request for an extension - but before the end of 30 October 2019 - he gets a deal with the EU, the Prime Minister may withdraw or modify the request.

So he has to request the extension by the 19th. He then can only withdraw it if a deal has been achieved with the EU. He can only withdraw it up until the 30th October, meaning that if he brought a 'fake' deal back to the Commons or pretended to have one, the Commons can then use the 24 hours before the deadline to take executive power and request the extension is fulfilled.

Sorry, to add to this... I think I can see the only way Johnson can get it through and crash out.

First, he has to ask for the extension on the 19th. There is no way around this.

He then pretends to have a deal and sends notice to withdraw the extension to the EU on the 30th.

He then prorogues parliament on the 30th. It's illegal, but nothing can be done about it in time to stop us crashing out after the 31st.

If he did that, it's likely the EU would refuse to rescind the extension. In that case, Johnson gets a huge PR win as the EU has 'forced' us to remain in the EU.

All that said, the odds on the above happening is pretty much nil, especially as he has specifically ruled out asking for the extension at all, under any circumstance. How he could survive the 11/12 days from the 19th to the deadline is hard to imagine. Not only that, if he invented a deal on the 30th, I really do think at least half of his party would revolt immediately because it'd be immediately apparent that it is fake when the EU have no idea what Johnson is talking about!

 

[davmaher]

To summarise what the act says:

If, following a request for an extension - but before the end of 30 October 2019 - he gets a deal with the EU, the Prime Minister may withdraw or modify the request.

So he has to request the extension by the 19th. He then can only withdraw it if a deal has been achieved with the EU. He can only withdraw it up until the 30th October, meaning that if he brought a 'fake' deal back to the Commons or pretended to have one, the Commons can then use the 24 hours before the deadline to take executive power and request the extension is fulfilled.

I understand that, I'm not asking about requesting the extension, I'm asking about whether Johnson has to accept any extension that is offered by the EU. Does it automatically go back to parliament for their approval? Is he obliged to accept it? Or, particularly as it is likely to come with conditions, could he turn it down on the basis that those conditions are not acceptable to the UK? If the Benn Act only forces him to request an extension then my fear is that he could still wriggle out of it.

 

[Tubey]

For those who still think this is about “taking back control*”, whatever that means, please rest assured that it’s actually about billionaires taking more of your rights away.

Well in, you’ve been played and played well.



*control which you never lost and always had

It's genuinely astonishing to me that this is somehow news to people.

... the backbench, profiteering, right wing Tories who want this utter disaster to happen so they can race the UK to the bottom and make millions off the backs of the poor.

2017. I can't find an earlier example but hand on heart I knew this was the motive for these monsters years ago, when the referendum was just a twinkle in their eye. There has never been a logical reason given for wanting to leave - with that in mind, you have to look at a logical motive; and it is money.

It's not just betting against the pound - that's the instant windfall - but it's the race to the bottom that will occur with workers' rights being stripped and so on.

If you are working class and want Brexit, you are a fool. I can't put it plainer than that. I'm not being condescending when I say that; I am stating it as a fact, as a working class lad.

 

[Tubey]

I understand that, I'm not asking about requesting the extension, I'm asking about whether Johnson has to accept any extension that is offered by the EU. Does it automatically go back to parliament for their approval? Is he obliged to accept it? Or, particularly as it is likely to come with conditions, could he turn it down on the basis that those conditions are not acceptable to the UK? If the Benn Act only forces him to request an extension then my fear is that he could still wriggle out of it.

Ah I see. Yes, he has to present it to parliament to debate and pass it into law. He can't request it and then throw the letter in the bin

This is the full clause, key bit bolded.

(4)The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Sorry, to add to this... I think I can see the only way Johnson can get it through and crash out.

First, he has to ask for the extension on the 19th. There is no way around this.

He then pretends to have a deal and sends notice to withdraw the extension to the EU on the 30th.

He then prorogues parliament on the 30th. It's illegal, but nothing can be done about it in time to stop us crashing out after the 31st.

If he did that, it's likely the EU would refuse to rescind the extension. In that case, Johnson gets a huge PR win as the EU has 'forced' us to remain in the EU.

All that said, the odds on the above happening is pretty much nil, especially as he has specifically ruled out asking for the extension at all, under any circumstance. How he could survive the 11/12 days from the 19th to the deadline is hard to imagine. Not only that, if he invented a deal on the 30th, I really do think at least half of his party would revolt immediately because it'd be immediately apparent that it is fake when the EU have no idea what Johnson is talking about!

The game isn’t to get us out with no deal on the 31st anymore imo, that’s now gone as a serious option.

The game is to now ‘try’ and achieve it whilst being thwarted by the courts. He’ll likely try and call a national emergency under the civil contingencies act, which could put the Benn act on hold, but which wouldn’t stand a chance of success when hauled in front of the Supreme Court - again.

But when thwarted he can stand there and shout that the ‘will of the people’ has been denied despite his heroic efforts.

Cue the election and ‘the people vs Parliament’.

 

[Groucho]

It's genuinely astonishing to me that this is somehow news to people.

Isn’t it unreal?

 

[Tubey]

The game isn’t to get us out with no deal on the 31st anymore imo, that’s now gone as a serious option.

The game is to now ‘try’ and achieve it whilst being thwarted by the courts. He’ll likely try and call a national emergency under the civil contingencies act, which could put the Benn act on hold, but which wouldn’t stand a chance of success when hauled in front of the Supreme Court - again.

But when thwarted he can stand there and shout that the ‘will of the people’ has been denied despite his heroic efforts.

Cue the election and ‘the people vs Parliament’.

Absolutely correct - he wants the EU to force us to remain, or if need be he wants to be taken to court and be 'the hero of the people'.

The key is to make sure he can't do either. If the opposition are sensible here, Johnson has no way out.

 

[davmaher]

Ah I see. Yes, he has to present it to parliament to debate and pass it into law. He can't request it and then throw the letter in the bin

This is the full clause, key bit bolded.

(4)The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks.

Thanks. That's a relief.

 

[Tin-Tin]

Think this may come down to the supposedly 'nuclear' option of a vote of no confidence, with Corbyn installed as temp PM just to get the extension.

 

[OnlyBlueWillDo]

War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.

What a load of Humbug...

 

[Tubey]

Think this may come down to the supposedly 'nuclear' option of a vote of no confidence, with Corbyn installed as temp PM just to get the extension.

There's no need to until 19 October.

There's no need for the opposition to do anything about Johnson until then. He's checkmated - that's why he's yelling and goading, begging for no confidence or a GE, because his strategy is completely shot.

If he doesn't send the letter on 19 October, then you get the no confidence vote, which will certainly pass, and parliament takes the executive role, sends the request for an extension, gets it, then calls for an election.

 

[orly]

Sorry, to add to this... I think I can see the only way Johnson can get it through and crash out.

First, he has to ask for the extension on the 19th. There is no way around this.

He then pretends to have a deal and sends notice to withdraw the extension to the EU on the 30th.

He then prorogues parliament on the 30th. It's illegal, but nothing can be done about it in time to stop us crashing out after the 31st.

If he did that, it's likely the EU would refuse to rescind the extension. In that case, Johnson gets a huge PR win as the EU has 'forced' us to remain in the EU.

All that said, the odds on the above happening is pretty much nil, especially as he has specifically ruled out asking for the extension at all, under any circumstance. How he could survive the 11/12 days from the 19th to the deadline is hard to imagine. Not only that, if he invented a deal on the 30th, I really do think at least half of his party would revolt immediately because it'd be immediately apparent that it is fake when the EU have no idea what Johnson is talking about!

Time to leave the thread

Genuinely, why are people making this more complicated than it needs to be?

We won't crash out on the 31st

We will likely have to do this all over again in January

... where we won't crash out

We will eventually have an implementation period that will need an almost immediate two year extension

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Absolutely correct - he wants the EU to force us to remain, or if need be he wants to be taken to court and be 'the hero of the people'.

The key is to make sure he can't do either. If the opposition are sensible here, Johnson has no way out.

The EU could level him at the Council meeting on the 17th by saying they’ll accept the request due on the 19th to extend under the Benn Act, based on the there being a GE, which of course Johnson wants, so he’ll have nowhere to go.

He’ll then no doubt blame ‘treacherous Remainers plotting against the ‘will of the people’.

His problem with that tack going into a GE, is that by turning the Tories into UKIP he’s going to alienate moderate Tory voters, who’ll likely flock to the Lib Dem’s. In addition, when he fails to deliver Brexit they’ll lose another portion of their vote to Farages Ltd Co. The only thing that might save him.....is Corbyn.