Its quite brilliant really, Italy are trying to claim that their banking crisis which has been going on for a while is all down to Brexit, meanwhile the USA have told the EU that the TTIP is not really the same without the UK as the UK takes 25% of all transatlantic goods. Germany fully understands the value of the UK and even Scotland has now been told to pipe down. As we said throughout this debate, the UK has far more going for it than the remainers would admit. The future looks a lot brighter.......
In or out of the EU, leave or remain, the UK were running into world trading difficulties as the world economy slows down.
" Total trade exports for May 2016 were £23.4 billion. This was a decrease of £1.1 billion (4.3 per cent) compared with last month and a decrease of £2.3 billion (9.1 per cent) compared with May 2015".
"Total trade imports for May 2016 were £36.1 billion. This was a decrease of £4.5 billion (11.1 per cent) compared with last month and an increase of £3.3 billion (10.2 per cent) compared with May 2015.
The UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £12.7 billion".
Not a good position to be in. Any shock to the system is not good for anyone which includes the UK. A currency shock can lead to companies profitability margins going down. Carney is talking about relaxing the amount of money that banks have to hold - higher bank capital rules were brought in after the 2008 crash and it was said were necessary to withstand any banking crisis, - to the tune of £150 billion. An incredible amount. Says something about how precarious Carney thinks the UK financial sector is and the wider economy.
UK export trade by manufacturers, the service sector and the financial sector with the rest of the world were/are not being hindered by the EU or its regulations.
UK trade with the rest of the world is down. "Non-EU Exports for May 2016 were £12.1 billion. This was a decrease of £0.5 billion (4.4 per cent) compared with last month, and a decrease of £2.4 billion (16.3 per cent) compared with May 2015".
Tariffs and the absence of 'free trade agreements ( the EU/UK has a lot of FTA with other countries) with the rest of the world isn't hindering UK export trade. It is the type of products the UK makes and exports, the quality and price comparativeness of UK exports.
Maybe, the 'future would be bright' if UK companies could take advantage of a falling pound. Which would mean UK exports are cheaper than UK competitors. Which gives the opportunity for UK companies to enter the market and start making more products. But that depends on capital, and whether the financial sector is prepared to lend to industry to make things. As it has an appalling record on that score, it wont happen. A falling pound will also increase the cost of imported raw materials etc. which adds costs to existing UK producers and any new ones that may enter the market.
As far as TTIP goes. It is/was never good for the UK in particular the NHS. And given that the UK government were the most enthusiastic arguer for TTIP. This will mean that outside the EU the UK government will still want a deal with the US with all the TTIP faults.
Between now and when the UK evokes article 50 there is going to be a lot of uncertainty. Any further shocks to the system will result in many casualties, whether that is Italian banks, German banks, UK banks or airline carriers or travel companies. The one thing the UK can't do and that is insulate itself from the rest of the world.