Current Affairs EU In or Out

[peteblue]

I am not going to prostrate my personal life on the internet, like no one would be arsed anyrate, but suffice to say that the last 12 months have been "difficult". We are ok, just about, but like the RSA study alludes to, unexpected cross winds could be less than helpful.

So when those cross winds could be inflicted by the Winners, one tends to get a tad annoyed at their self entitled "I am ok Jack" attitude.

It actually makes me want to puke.

Yet this is not true is it. The I’m alright jack crew tend to be the graduate, intelligent, city based, young, anti-racist types that voted Remain. Most leave voters, as we are told, are under educated, working class, stupid, old people, who just happen to understand we will be better off out of the EU......

 

[Frang]

Yet this is not true is it. The I’m alright jack crew tend to be the graduate, intelligent, city based, young, anti-racist types that voted Remain. Most leave voters, as we are told, are under educated, working class, stupid, old people, who just happen to understand we will be better off out of the EU......

its whatever suits the narrative at the time pete, haven't you worked that out yet!

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Bruce that’s disgraceful tbh. I am not blasé about things and never have been, but nor am I easily frightened by silly stories of the world ending just because we are no longer in the EU and unfortunately that’s all the remoaners are offering......

To be honest Pete, suggesting that people are saying the world is ending is pretty blase, because that's not what people are saying at all. I'll repeat again, a large number of people in Britain cannot afford any kind of economic shock or disruption to keep their heads above water, and even in your best estimates, a no deal Brexit would deliver that kind of disruption. Leavers saying it'll be alright in the end, or it was always reckoned to take a few years to iron out the knots etc. is imagining away the very real problems a good many people might face.

Even today with the talk about EU migrants and their status in the UK, it's estimated that there are 3 million living here, and 1 million have secured settled status (approximate figures). You could argue that they should get their act together. You could equally argue that they were told they would have until December next year to do so, only for Patel to now say November 1st you're in or you're out. How might the country look if even 100,000 people leave inside a month?

I'm sorry if you feel my comment was unfair, but every time any potential problem has been raised on here over the past three years, it's been wished away as fearmongering or even treachery. So perhaps you'll forgive us for thinking you're not really bothered about the consequences as you've never given the impression that you are.

 

[Frang]

To be honest Pete, suggesting that people are saying the world is ending is pretty blase, because that's not what people are saying at all. I'll repeat again, a large number of people in Britain cannot afford any kind of economic shock or disruption to keep their heads above water, and even in your best estimates, a no deal Brexit would deliver that kind of disruption. Leavers saying it'll be alright in the end, or it was always reckoned to take a few years to iron out the knots etc. is imagining away the very real problems a good many people might face.

Even today with the talk about EU migrants and their status in the UK, it's estimated that there are 3 million living here, and 1 million have secured settled status (approximate figures). You could argue that they should get their act together. You could equally argue that they were told they would have until December next year to do so, only for Patel to now say November 1st you're in or you're out. How might the country look if even 100,000 people leave inside a month?

I'm sorry if you feel my comment was unfair, but every time any potential problem has been raised on here over the past three years, it's been wished away as fearmongering or even treachery. So perhaps you'll forgive us for thinking you're not really bothered about the consequences as you've never given the impression that you are.

you know this how ???

its all guess work and scaremungering.

I expect a full written apology 2 weeks after Brexit , after nothing of what you have predicted comes to fruition.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

you know this how ???

its all guess work and scaremungering.

I expect a full written apology 2 weeks after Brexit , after nothing of what you have predicted comes to fruition.

It's really not guess work though is it? People know what is needed to maintain business as usual, as businesses invest huge sums in being as efficient as possible. They know what EU rules and regulations support such operations, and the timescales by which things operate in such an environment. They have much less of an idea how things might operate on November 1st.

Take the EU migrant situation as an example. The best figures we have suggests around 2 million people are not yet registered for settled status, so as things stand, the Home Office will have to deport 2 million people. You'll no doubt wiffle waffle about and suggest there's no such risk, and I hope you're right, but given we're a shade under 10 weeks away from those 2 million people being booted out, you'd imagine their employer, their friends, family and so on are somewhat concerned. Is the Home Office even equipped to process the equivalent of 200,000 applications a week? Do you know or are you simply happy to bury your head in the sand and hope it'll all be ok?

 

[Frang]

It's really not guess work though is it? People know what is needed to maintain business as usual, as businesses invest huge sums in being as efficient as possible. They know what EU rules and regulations support such operations, and the timescales by which things operate in such an environment. They have much less of an idea how things might operate on November 1st.

Take the EU migrant situation as an example. The best figures we have suggests around 2 million people are not yet registered for settled status, so as things stand, the Home Office will have to deport 2 million people. You'll no doubt wiffle waffle about and suggest there's no such risk, and I hope you're right, but given we're a shade under 10 weeks away from those 2 million people being booted out, you'd imagine their employer, their friends, family and so on are somewhat concerned. Is the Home Office even equipped to process the equivalent of 200,000 applications a week? Do you know or are you simply happy to bury your head in the sand and hope it'll all be ok?

neither of us know...

I can not see us at anytime deporting 2 million people in one go.

they will be given the time needed to sort out their apllications its as simple as that.

 

[zzr45]

Some loon is going to lob him in a HGV soon as well. *pray for frank*

Wouldn’t count on it. Most manufacturers work on a just in time delivery system from parts depots in Europe. Add in a tariff on parts, shortage of EU valid pallets and we could actually be about to see a lot of wagons drop off the road very quickly.

 

[peteblue]

To be honest Pete, suggesting that people are saying the world is ending is pretty blase, because that's not what people are saying at all. I'll repeat again, a large number of people in Britain cannot afford any kind of economic shock or disruption to keep their heads above water, and even in your best estimates, a no deal Brexit would deliver that kind of disruption. Leavers saying it'll be alright in the end, or it was always reckoned to take a few years to iron out the knots etc. is imagining away the very real problems a good many people might face.

Even today with the talk about EU migrants and their status in the UK, it's estimated that there are 3 million living here, and 1 million have secured settled status (approximate figures). You could argue that they should get their act together. You could equally argue that they were told they would have until December next year to do so, only for Patel to now say November 1st you're in or you're out. How might the country look if even 100,000 people leave inside a month?

I'm sorry if you feel my comment was unfair, but every time any potential problem has been raised on here over the past three years, it's been wished away as fearmongering or even treachery. So perhaps you'll forgive us for thinking you're not really bothered about the consequences as you've never given the impression that you are.

Bruce, it’s partly because my life and profession has been filled with insoluble problems of a really complex nature that have always been resolved. If that is blasé then so be it. For me difficult problems always have a solution, it’s just a matter of addressing them. We have wasted three and a half years addressing none of the potential problems. Even when we come out on Oct 31st we know there will be issues, but we have millions of people addressing these issues and they will be overcome. This is not based on some wishy washy ‘belief’ but on my whole life’s experience of addressing such issues. I believe that the dark forecasters are grossly overstating the position for logically what will change. We will be outside of the EU, we both will want to trade, the legal bit will not be in place, but so what, we will still trade, just as we do now. There will be issues to get over but why would either the U.K. or the EU not wish to do so, in addition we will be free to do whatever deals we want elsewhere. There is nothing to be frightened of......

 

[peteblue]

neither of us know...

I can not see us at anytime deporting 2 million people in one go.

they will be given the time needed to sort out their apllications its as simple as that.

Of course they will........

 

[Hickson9]

Why ?....

A vast number of connected and complex reasons.

Job losses, constrained economic growth, reduced house prices (huge loss of wealth), interrupted trade, medicine shortages, ending of policing cooperation etc.

Did you just ignore the official central scenarios for no deal that the Government is working with? These are our own scenarios!

The country will survive (though maybe not the Union as we know it) and eventually I suspect we will return to some kind of even keel in the coming decades, but many, many people will have suffered severely.

 

[peteblue]

A vast number of connected and complex reasons.

Job losses, constrained economic growth, reduced house prices (huge loss of wealth), interrupted trade, medicine shortages, ending of policing cooperation etc.

Did you just ignore the official central scenarios for no deal that the Government is working with? These are our own scenarios!

I fully understand complexity, as opposed to complicated. Would you like to share these vast number of complex and connected reasons. In fact just share three or four......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

neither of us know...

I can not see us at anytime deporting 2 million people in one go.

they will be given the time needed to sort out their apllications its as simple as that.

You don't know that whatsoever. There seems a very real risk that from November there will be a situation whereby Europeans with settled status will have different legal status to existing Europeans who have yet to apply, who will have different legal status again to new Europeans who come to Britain after November 1st. What an absolute balls up, and you have no clue about any of this because absolutely nothing has been officially published, just soundbites issued in the press to scare people.

We've already seen with Windrush how this government can make a horlicks of people's lives, so you'll forgive me if I don't share your confidence in either their benevolence or their competence.

 

[Frang]

You don't know that whatsoever. There seems a very real risk that from November there will be a situation whereby Europeans with settled status will have different legal status to existing Europeans who have yet to apply, who will have different legal status again to new Europeans who come to Britain after November 1st. What an absolute balls up, and you have no clue about any of this because absolutely nothing has been officially published, just soundbites issued in the press to scare people.

We've already seen with Windrush how this government can make a horlicks of people's lives, so you'll forgive me if I don't share your confidence in either their benevolence or their competence.

nor do you bruce… this is all very new to everyone concerned . its all guesswork.

its funny how you don't like my thesis on things , but im supposed to accept every single one of yours.

 

[peteblue]

You don't know that whatsoever. There seems a very real risk that from November there will be a situation whereby Europeans with settled status will have different legal status to existing Europeans who have yet to apply, who will have different legal status again to new Europeans who come to Britain after November 1st. What an absolute balls up, and you have no clue about any of this because absolutely nothing has been officially published, just soundbites issued in the press to scare people.

We've already seen with Windrush how this government can make a horlicks of people's lives, so you'll forgive me if I don't share your confidence in either their benevolence or their competence.

What is the Eu position regarding U.K. nationals....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

nor do you bruce… this is all very new to everyone concerned . its all guesswork.

its funny how you don't like my thesis on things , but im supposed to accept every single one of yours.

I haven't proposed a thesis. I've suggested there are risks. You just prefer to pretend there are none.

What is the Eu position regarding U.K. nationals....

I don't know what the EU position is, but Czech has just imposed stricter criteria for non-EU nationals that probably rules out my wife and I living there.