Current Affairs EU In or Out

[bizzaro]

You don't know how the Civil Service works.

The remit of the majority of civil servants (in the lowest five grades [AA to Grade 7]) implement the policy decisions as enacted by Parliament. They can feed in to how things are actually implemented on the 'front line'.

Those high civil servants (the Sir Humphreys in 'Yes Minister' and 'Yes Prime Minister') advise their bosses on the upward feedback of implementation, the pitfalls, the obstacles (for example, can the current computer network sustain all the changes upon implementation and going forward), and a whole host of other things. An excellent case in point was when Job Seekers' Allowance was in the throes of being implemented. Alistair Darling wanted it in by a certain date. The computer techies, the Trainers, and the front-line staff, said if you stick to this date, the whole computer system will crash and you will be back to a paper-based system, the training of the number of staff required cannot be carried out on time given the staffing levels allocated to training, the physical infrastructure cannot be in place on time, and so on. At first, Darling was stubborn, but eventually had to give in to those in the know, as advised by his senior civil servants. I know this as one who was in a Management grade in the DSS at the time, and we all saw the potential train-wreck, fortunately avoided. Hardly got into the news...

Great post this.

 

[bizzaro]

You would have been better saying nothing........

I've said more than I need to.

Whereas you've just spoutted how 'well' the UK is doing - 10 days after the referendum when the results on the economy are not as good as you are implying.

Where the government and the Bank of England are having to SPEND MONEY reacting to what has happened.

Significant somes of money also.

You're entirely delusional. Disgrace to be honest. Much like the '£350 million per week' quote.

It's panning out quite nicely tbh. The £ has dropped to a sensible level that will aid exports, the FTSE has regained and indeed improved on where it was, the possibility of deflation has probably been removed and the banks etc etc have declared they will remain in the UK. The chancellor has removed his further austerity or tax increasing threats and offered business a further cut in corporation tax. We regain control of our Borders, Lawmaking and now have the opportunity to increase our RoW trade as countries such as the USA, India, China, Australia etc are knocking on our door. What's not to like........Oh and Germany really, really, wants a trade deal........

Its you that would be better off saying nothing.

 

[The Esk]

Trust me mate, it will come good and the energy and ability of our people will make it so in that big wide world where we have always operated, while the Europeans keep looking inward and drafting ever more ridiculous laws for themselves while stumping up monies to waste on ever more grandiose schemes.........

Whilst admiring your positivity there's no basis for your optimism Pete. The economy is going to fall of the edge of a cliff. The leave vote is at least as shocking as the fall of Lehman Brothers and 8 years later we are still suffering the consequences. We talked of the lost decade after 2008, that's now been extended much, much further - UK PLC is in crisis, no management and the macro picture collapsing around us.

 

[peteblue]

I've said more than I need to.

Whereas you've just spoutted how 'well' the UK is doing - 10 days after the referendum when the results on the economy are not as good as you are implying.

Where the government and the Bank of England are having to SPEND MONEY reacting to what has happened.

Significant somes of money also.

You're entirely delusional. Disgrace to be honest. Much like the '£350 million per week' quote.



Its you that would be better off saying nothing.

You had your chance to prove or show what you do or know, and everyone can see for themselves.........remember the first rule when in a hole, stop digging.....

 

[bizzaro]

You had your chance to prove or show what you do or know, and everyone can see for themselves.........remember the first rule when in a hole, stop digging.....

Mate. I don't need to justify myself to you or anyone else. You're the one saying that 'its all panning out nicely tbh'

Which is a ridiculous statement.

Entirely ridiculous.

Things are moving that you cannot fathom.

The government has taken some positive steps to head off the worst of it. But any politician saying trigger article 50 before the end of 2016 is a liar and an absolute disgrace with no concern on the impacts their decisions are having in the real world.

 

[bizzaro]

Whilst admiring your positivity there's no basis for your optimism Pete. The economy is going to fall of the edge of a cliff. The leave vote is at least as shocking as the fall of Lehman Brothers and 8 years later we are still suffering the consequences. We talked of the lost decade after 2008, that's now been extended much, much further - UK PLC is in crisis, no management and the macro picture collapsing around us.

Pretty much agree Esk.

Its why I've said its got to be Theresa May.

The only one trying to slow things down and encourage confidence.



Angela Leadsome would be like adding fuel onto an already burning fire.


Need cool heads not idealogues like this Peteblue person - who frankly isn't in the real world.

 

[peteblue]

Whilst admiring your positivity there's no basis for your optimism Pete. The economy is going to fall of the edge of a cliff. The leave vote is at least as shocking as the fall of Lehman Brothers and 8 years later we are still suffering the consequences. We talked of the lost decade after 2008, that's now been extended much, much further - UK PLC is in crisis, no management and the macro picture collapsing around us.

Esk, you and I know that no one, no one, really knows what will happen one way or the other. We will get indicators and we will have beliefs based on experience. I do not believe for one minute that we will 'fall off the edge of a cliff' and UK businesses do not believe that either otherwise they would now be gone. There will undoubtedly be issues along the way, just as there would have been had we remained. We now have the opportunity to get back out into the big world and do deals. The EU will do a trade deal with us because Germany needs it, we do not need to trade with the minnows such as Slovakia etc, just the big players, and they will insist on doing a deal because they sell more to us than we do to them. The cards we hold are quite good and our opportunities even better. The only thing that will stop us succeeding is ourselves........

 

[The Esk]

Esk, you and I know that no one, no one, really knows what will happen one way or the other. We will get indicators and we will have beliefs based on experience. I do not believe for one minute that we will 'fall off the edge of a cliff' and UK businesses do not believe that either otherwise they would now be gone. There will undoubtedly be issues along the way, just as there would have been had we remained. We now have the opportunity to get back out into the big world and do deals. The EU will do a trade deal with us because Germany needs it, we do not need to trade with the minnows such as Slovakia etc, just the big players, and they will insist on doing a deal because they sell more to us than we do to them. The cards we hold are quite good and our opportunities even better. The only thing that will stop us succeeding is ourselves........

I know a number of FTSE 100 CEO's and they're all saying the same thing Pete - this is disastrous for the British economy, and they're all revising their investment programmes and expecting a significant down turn - even Gideon is expecting the same, that's how bad it is.

 

[bizzaro]

Esk, you and I know that no one, no one, really knows what will happen one way or the other. We will get indicators and we will have beliefs based on experience. I do not believe for one minute that we will 'fall off the edge of a cliff' and UK businesses do not believe that either otherwise they would now be gone. There will undoubtedly be issues along the way, just as there would have been had we remained. We now have the opportunity to get back out into the big world and do deals. The EU will do a trade deal with us because Germany needs it, we do not need to trade with the minnows such as Slovakia etc, just the big players, and they will insist on doing a deal because they sell more to us than we do to them. The cards we hold are quite good and our opportunities even better. The only thing that will stop us succeeding is ourselves........

Hang on a second.

You've just posted 'Its all panning out nicely tbh'

As if you know or knew what was going to happen. Now you've admitted you have no clue.

I think you'll find that companies would not be gone inside 10 days. Totally exaggerating that bit also. Give it two quarters then come back.


This is sentimental nonsense this post.

You're describing Slovakia as 'minnows'.

They have a higher population than New Zealand (Farage was telephoning radio stations there last week softening them up for a new trade deal...). Geographically closer. Your derogatory tone towards a central European country there is disgraceful really.

 

[peteblue]

I know a number of FTSE 100 CEO's and they're all saying the same thing Pete - this is disastrous for the British economy, and they're all revising their investment programmes and expecting a significant down turn - even Gideon is expecting the same, that's how bad it is.

So apart from revising investment programmes, how many have issued profit warnings as they are required to do ? How are the shares of these companies performing ? How many lay offs have they announced ?.......they will wait and see.....just like we have done during other 'disaster' events like 'black wednesday'.....

 

[bizzaro]

I know a number of FTSE 100 CEO's and they're all saying the same thing Pete - this is disastrous for the British economy, and they're all revising their investment programmes and expecting a significant down turn - even Gideon is expecting the same, that's how bad it is.

I wouldn't use the term 'disasterous'.

More 'tumultuous'.

Bit of a slog and self inflicted also.

As you know Esk. I'm particuarly infuriated by Jean Claude Juncker.

I want him gone.

 

[The Esk]

So apart from revising investment programmes, how many have issued profit warnings as they are required to do ? How are the shares of these companies performing ? How many lay offs have they announced ?.......they will wait and see.....just like we have done during other 'disaster' events like 'black wednesday'.....

Let's see at the next two quarter results, there's no pleasure in saying this but it is inevitable and backed by precedent in terms of the effect of economic shocks. The difficulty we have is that the recovery framework is not what is was which suggests recovery will take much longer.

So we'll have a steep, deep recession and a very gradual recovery thereafter.

 

[JammyP]

So you've got a degree in history - what have you done with it? So you're a lawyer. Does that make you more in touch with the wishes of the population than others...?

Another bleeding heart referencing a second referendum...

The air is quite clear. A voting majority of the UK wanted out. Period...

The mess is being caused by the obfuscation such as you (and a great many others) show muddying the waters...

Well, if you are supporting democracy, all I was doing was setting out how it works . Hope it helps to know. Rees Mogg does not know, if his views are as posted.
oh flip, I forgot we don't need experts any more. Let's have kids with pen knives to do heart surgery....

 

[peteblue]

Hang on a second.

You've just posted 'Its all panning out nicely tbh'

As if you know or knew what was going to happen. Now you've admitted you have no clue.

I think you'll find that companies would not be gone inside 10 days. Totally exaggerating that bit also. Give it two quarters then come back.


This is sentimental nonsense this post.

You're describing Slovakia as 'minnows'.

They have a higher population than New Zealand (Farage was telephoning radio stations there last week softening them up for a new trade deal...). Geographically closer. Your derogatory tone towards a central European country there is disgraceful really.

When do you move to Ireland again.......

 

[bizzaro]

Let's see at the next two quarter results, there's no pleasure in saying this but it is inevitable and backed by precedent in terms of the effect of economic shocks. The difficulty we have is that the recovery framework is not what is was which suggests recovery will take much longer.

So we'll have a steep, deep recession and a very gradual recovery thereafter.

Think certain sectors may show this. The effect on other sectors (like services) will be more gradual.

It all depends whom now becomes PM and leads the government.

Osbornes comments today and likely approach may have the effect of waking people up in the commission.


Germany will be worried about a loss of their relative competiveness to the UK with that.

Real shot across the bow.