Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Barnfred 55]

This is what the majority of people don’t understand. This is just the unraveling, and it’s torturous.

I'm not sure how you can say this with any certainty Chris, and based on most people I've spoken to about it I'd guess that it was the other way around. That most people are aware that the hard negotiations are yet to begin.

And most people I speak to also consider it a disgrace that, a week before the third anniversary of the referendum, we still haven't started formally discussing our future relationship with the EU. When you think about it logically, how can you expect MPs to vote on leaving the EU when they don't know what the future looks like.

 

[Kurt.]

I'm not sure how you can say this with any certainty Chris, and based on most people I've spoken to about it I'd guess that it was the other way around. That most people are aware that the hard negotiations are yet to begin.

And most people I speak to also consider it a disgrace that, a week before the third anniversary of the referendum, we still haven't started formally discussing our future relationship with the EU. When you think about it logically, how can you expect MPs to vote on leaving the EU when they don't know what the future looks like.

By the same token... how can you expect joe public to vote on leaving when they don’t know what the future looks like ?

 

[nsno-chris]

I'm not sure how you can say this with any certainty Chris, and based on most people I've spoken to about it I'd guess that it was the other way around. That most people are aware that the hard negotiations are yet to begin.

And most people I speak to also consider it a disgrace that, a week before the third anniversary of the referendum, we still haven't started formally discussing our future relationship with the EU. When you think about it logically, how can you expect MPs to vote on leaving the EU when they don't know what the future looks like.

I suppose you’re right, the majority of people I talk to think this is the deal. I guess it’s how people interpret the news.

With regards to the future deal, this can’t happen until we actually leave the EU. That’s the law, they will not discuss trade deals until you are a third country. So we are, and will continue to be, in limbo until we stop becoming a member.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I suppose you’re right, the majority of people I talk to think this is the deal. I guess it’s how people interpret the news.

With regards to the future deal, this can’t happen until we actually leave the EU. That’s the law, they will not discuss trade deals until you are a third country. So we are, and will continue to be, in limbo until we stop becoming a member.

What law is that Chris?. If you are inside the EU you are automatically part of the Customs Union and Single Market, so I wouldn't have thought there would need to be any specific EU laws that covered it. I've no idea tbh so happy to be proved wrong.

Article 50, which deals with leaving as you know, is sadly pretty vague. Below is the actual wording specifically relating to negotiating the future relationship. If anything it implies that it should be done in tandem "setting out the arrangements for it's withdrawal, taking account of the framework for it's future relationship"

." A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218 (3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament"

Article 218 (3) just deals with who does the negotiating. I've looked unsuccesfully for somewhere that states specifically that the withdrawal agreement has to have been signed and the UK had become a third country, before the future agreement can be negotiated. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, just that I can't find it. But it is a huge stumbling block as I said. I'm sure we would be able to get a withdrawal agreement through if MPs knew what the future relationship would be. There is a distinct lack of trust on all sides and to a degree I can understand this. I wouldn't trust any of them either.

 

[Barnfred 55]

By the same token... how can you expect joe public to vote on leaving when they don’t know what the future looks like ?

I can only speak for myself. I didn't think for a moment that the country would actually vote to leave, but even so I did give the matter careful thought because, at the time, I didn't feel strongly one way or the other. I had my own picture of what the future looked like. But I also knew that it wouldn't be easy to achieve. I fully expected the EU to make things hard for us but also believed that ultimately they would want a future close relationship so some form of common sense would prevail in the end.

Having said that I naively under estimated how much remain supporters would fight their corner, or how much divided the country would become. Likewise, once Article 50 was invoked, I didn't expect that many of those who voted it through would then do their utmost to prevent it.

FWIW I now believe strongly that putting it to a referendum was the wrong thing to do. Something needed to be done about our relationship with the EU, but I now feel that should have been dealt with through both Parliaments. You can't undo what's been done though. This isn't Back to the Future or The Terminator.

The country is deeply divided and what we do next will determine whether that divide widens or whether it starts to mend. For it to mend, I believe we need a Brexit with a good trade deal to take place, and that won't happen without a softening on all sides including the EU. I can't see that happening.

 

[Methuselah]

Indeed. We haven't even begun talking about the future relationship yet, just how Britain will withdraw from the EU.

Yes Bruce, the result of our negotiations to withdraw were about as successful as David Cameron's inept efforts. We need to get some serious negotiators in when we discuss trade, following a likely no-deal.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Yes Bruce, the result of our negotiations to withdraw were about as successful as David Cameron's inept efforts. We need to get some serious negotiators in when we discuss trade, following a likely no-deal.

What did Cameron negotiate?

 

[Kurt.]

I can only speak for myself. I didn't think for a moment that the country would actually vote to leave, but even so I did give the matter careful thought because, at the time, I didn't feel strongly one way or the other. I had my own picture of what the future looked like. But I also knew that it wouldn't be easy to achieve. I fully expected the EU to make things hard for us but also believed that ultimately they would want a future close relationship so some form of common sense would prevail in the end.

Having said that I naively under estimated how much remain supporters would fight their corner, or how much divided the country would become. Likewise, once Article 50 was invoked, I didn't expect that many of those who voted it through would then do their utmost to prevent it.

FWIW I now believe strongly that putting it to a referendum was the wrong thing to do. Something needed to be done about our relationship with the EU, but I now feel that should have been dealt with through both Parliaments. You can't undo what's been done though. This isn't Back to the Future or The Terminator.

The country is deeply divided and what we do next will determine whether that divide widens or whether it starts to mend. For it to mend, I believe we need a Brexit with a good trade deal to take place, and that won't happen without a softening on all sides including the EU. I can't see that happening.

Like I’ve said previously, I don’t think we will leave because I don’t see how we can leave.

 

[Methuselah]

What did Cameron negotiate?

He negotiated on the EU reform deal. It was supposed to ensure that we all voted remain but he achieved just about the square root of sod all. The point is, both Cameron and May (and their teams) were not very good (and that includes the Brexiteers in the original Withdrawal Agreement team.) We need some hard nosed professionals in there, not just MP's who think they are.

 

[nsno-chris]

What law is that Chris?. If you are inside the EU you are automatically part of the Customs Union and Single Market, so I wouldn't have thought there would need to be any specific EU laws that covered it. I've no idea tbh so happy to be proved wrong.

Article 50, which deals with leaving as you know, is sadly pretty vague. Below is the actual wording specifically relating to negotiating the future relationship. If anything it implies that it should be done in tandem "setting out the arrangements for it's withdrawal, taking account of the framework for it's future relationship"

." A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218 (3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament"

Article 218 (3) just deals with who does the negotiating. I've looked unsuccesfully for somewhere that states specifically that the withdrawal agreement has to have been signed and the UK had become a third country, before the future agreement can be negotiated. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, just that I can't find it. But it is a huge stumbling block as I said. I'm sure we would be able to get a withdrawal agreement through if MPs knew what the future relationship would be. There is a distinct lack of trust on all sides and to a degree I can understand this. I wouldn't trust any of them either.

I believe it is contained within Article 218 of The Treaty of the Functioning of the EU, as you mentioned. So as a customs union the EU members are represented by the EU commission in all international trade agreements and as such cannot negotiate our own.

If you look at the EEA, the legal basis of this article 217 of the above mentioned treaty. A full one paragraph. EU law is an absolute bitch to interpret, you almost have to be a fully practiced barrister to understand it

 

[Cool_Blue]

What did Cameron negotiate?

About two-thirds of nothing.

A British Prime Minister touring Europe with a begging bowl, how pathetic......was how it appeared at the time. It made me hate Cameron. But......that recent documentary on BBC of behind the scenes negotiations just befothe referendum showed events in a rather different light. It showed that he had really tried in difficult circumstances to negotiate something tangible to bring home and sell to the electorate, but the EU were pretty intransigent, he got sweet fa, and so the vote went as it did. I think the EU thought “the British will never vote to leave so we don’t need to give him anything”. So blame on both sides for how things have transpired I would say. “A mess” doesn’t even come close.

 

[nsno-chris]

He negotiated on the EU reform deal. It was supposed to ensure that we all voted remain but he achieved just about the square root of sod all. The point is, both Cameron and May (and their teams) were not very good (and that includes the Brexiteers in the original Withdrawal Agreement team.) We need some hard nosed professionals in there, not just MP's who think they are.

But they’re negotiating a deal to leave in 2 years, this is just to ensure cohesion for when we are not members and continue trading as a whole.

What would be your preferred outcome on this section of negotiations ??

 

[Kurt.]

He negotiated on the EU reform deal. It was supposed to ensure that we all voted remain but he achieved just about the square root of sod all. The point is, both Cameron and May (and their teams) were not very good (and that includes the Brexiteers in the original Withdrawal Agreement team.) We need some hard nosed professionals in there, not just MP's who think they are.

So we need MP’s to go in there stamping their feet and shaking their fists .... brilliant.

 

[Methuselah]

So we need MP’s to go in there stamping their feet and shaking their fists .... brilliant.

Where did I say that? You obviously don't know anything about negotiations.

 

[Methuselah]

I’d like to add that you’re talking utter bollocks

That's why I like this thread. You can rely on quality intellectual debate.