Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%
  • Total voters
    1,013
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Barnfred 55 said:
Agree 100% with your first line. I also fully understand your stance regarding remain being preferable to this deal, but I can't agree with you on that for the simple reason that the country will still be bitterly divided. The desire of many million British to break away from Europe will not be diminished and, if anything, will get stronger. My fear is that the UK will become a totally toxic environment to live and work and nobody with any sense will want to invest here. In the long term, remaining in the EU may actually be worse for the country than leaving with no deal.

The other big question is what does the EU want in all this. Nobody seems to be considering this in the UK but it could be fundamental to what happens next once May's proposal is voted down again, which it now surely will be following the AGs statement. My view has changed recently on this, in fact I've done a complete U turn. I'm now seeing an organisation that actually wants the UK to leave the EU, but still wants to have a close working relationship afterwards. Last night, for the first time, I saw a man who really wanted Teresa May's proposal to succeed and somebody who was committed to getting a future trade deal done so that the backstop wouldn't come into play. You only have to look at the backstop to realise that the EU wouldn't want it to come into force at all, never mind stay there indefinitely. The mainland UK being part of a customs union but without the free movement of people, not only goes against everything they believe in but would probably also satisfy a lot of the people who voted Brexit but are now fed up with the whole thing.

In addition, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the E27 have become, at best, fed up with the UK. From their point of view there has to be a balance between the financial reward our membership brings, against the frequent disruption to their activities that comes with it. The UK have never submitted fully to being members of the EU in the way that all other nations have, and it's fundamentally clear that we never will in the future. I think it's also fair to say that EU see no point in the UK continuing to be a member of the union when so many of it's electorate are totally against it. In this they have a much better grasp of the situation than we in the UK do in my opinion.

So we vote down the May plan, and then vote down a no deal, what then. We vote to apply to an extension to article 50. What happens if the EU say no. Well, legally, we leave with no deal. I'm not saying that they will refuse an extension, but it would be naive not to consider it a possibility given that the EU must be as fed up with this as we are. If I was them I'd be thinking what's the point of agreeing a short term extension when there's no desire in Parliament to agree on anything. I wouldn't have thought they would want to entertain a long extension either, as that would involve our being involved in this years elections. Imagine the chaos 73 Brexit MEPs could cause in Brussels. In the event we do default into a no deal on March 29th, then every MP who voted against the deal has to accept some responsibility for effectively playing Russian roulette with the nations future.

FWIW, I don't think that will happen, but not because of anything we have done. I just don't believe the EU will be reckless enough to allow a no deal to happen. I can see them allowing a short term extension on the understanding that either a second referendum or a general election takes place. For me, a second referendum is fruitless, whichever side wins. Firstly, remain has already shown they wont honour the result if Brexit win again, and Brexit will simply follow suit if Remain wins. And neither side have a majority in parliament to carry it through anyway. So I think a General election will take place.

That should be interesting.
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I still want to leave , but this deal offers nothing its neither got the benefits of staying or leaving,
You make a good point about the aftermath , i don't unlike yourself thing we will leave and have felt this way for some time, the establishment(parliament,EU) are just wearing the people down till they get there own way.
The problem with that is that even if we have a second vote ect .none of this does anything to change the situation around the country as to why people wanted to leave in the first place, this isn't going to blow away like unicorn tears in the wind(sorry couldn't resist;)) despite what the likes of Cable think, in fact it will be compounded the fears and anger, felt by leavers after winning the vote, then the two main parties in the election standing to uphold that vote, and witnessing their views counting for nothing in the grand scale of things, which was one of the main reasons for brexit in the first place.
We are in for a rough ride now anyway either stay or go as somebody will tap into that
 
edge said:
I still want to leave , but this deal offers nothing its neither got the benefits of staying or leaving,
You make a good point about the aftermath , i don't unlike yourself thing we will leave and have felt this way for some time, the establishment(parliament,EU) are just wearing the people down till they get there own way.
The problem with that is that even if we have a second vote ect .none of this does anything to change the situation around the country as to why people wanted to leave in the first place, this isn't going to blow away like unicorn tears in the wind(sorry couldn't resist;)) despite what the likes of Cable think, in fact it will be compounded the fears and anger, felt by leavers after winning the vote, then the two main parties in the election standing to uphold that vote, and witnessing their views counting for nothing in the grand scale of things, which was one of the main reasons for brexit in the first place.
We are in for a rough ride now anyway either stay or go as somebody will tap into that
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yea, seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
If you leave, you're economy is screwed and you have to deal with a messy border situation,
If you stay there'll be a dangerous rise in far right wing populism as well as a lack of trust among other EU nations.
All the while Scotland and N.Ireland prepare for separation referendums.

In my opinion, the best way to deal with this is to put the N.Ireland only backstop before parliament and see if it can get the votes from both sides. It would get the votes, a withdrawl agreement would be signed, the UK would leave the EU. Then the DUP would bring down the government and force a general election which might be no bad thing moving forward.
I realize this might mean Scotland demand the same status as NI and this would be the next bridge to cross.
 
Ruairi77 said:
yea, seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
If you leave, you're economy is screwed and you have to deal with a messy border situation,
If you stay there'll be a dangerous rise in far right wing populism as well as a lack of trust among other EU nations.
All the while Scotland and N.Ireland prepare for separation referendums.

In my opinion, the best way to deal with this is to put the N.Ireland only backstop before parliament and see if it can get the votes from both sides. It would get the votes, a withdrawl agreement would be signed, the UK would leave the EU. Then the DUP would bring down the government and force a general election which might be no bad thing moving forward.
I realize this might mean Scotland demand the same status as NI and this would be the next bridge to cross.
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It wouldn’t get the votes though.
 
tim cahill said:
So you want no deal? The good Friday agreement isn’t really important I suppose. I’m sure they won’t mind a hard border.
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He has no idea what he wants other than OUT.

He's decided what he wants, so international law, UK law, legally binding agreements should all be set aside, because a man that can't write in sentences, let alone comprehend complex political and legal decisions has decided it should happen.
 
JEBUS_LIVES said:
I think the EU will agree to an extension, they will want to demonstrate 'good faith'.
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No lengthy extension; longer than the European parliament elections. Has gone on long enough. Further more all the remaining members need to agree with an extension; e.g: Belgium (Reynders) will only agree if there is very concrete evidence that there will be a solution in a short time span-. Had plenty of time to decide already. Everybody's fed up.

Even Verhofstadt agrees that an extension makes little sense; I'll rephrase his diplomatic terms in what he actually meant: "we all have better things to do" - he was also very sceptical that May will get her deal through parliament. In his opinion, if the vote fails, the only solution is a cross-party alliance but that will necessarily be a softer Brexit (refers to Labour and previous meetings with Corbyn) than what is in the agreement.
 
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