Current Affairs EU In or Out
- Thread starter micknick
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Frang
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how do you see this playing out??
no deal
or
a deal which basically has us leaving but staying in if you know what I mean !
The latter, or a second referendum as we get closer to March with the EU therefore agreeing to extend Article 50.
General Election solves nothing. No deal definitely won't happen.
Now 80%-ish chance of it being the May agreement with a late fudge on the backstop. So Brexit Lite.
Frang
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I can still see a no deal happening
abelard
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I am not sure people are taking No Deal seriously enough.
The idea that this parliament, after tonight, could ever agree on the terms of a Second Referendum does not bear thinking about.
The EU, within about 30 seconds of Brady, reaffirmed that they will not renegotiate the backstop.
So where are the 230 (?!?!?) votes needed to pass the I Can't Believe It's Not The May Deal going to come from, exactly?
The idea that this parliament, after tonight, could ever agree on the terms of a Second Referendum does not bear thinking about.
The EU, within about 30 seconds of Brady, reaffirmed that they will not renegotiate the backstop.
So where are the 230 (?!?!?) votes needed to pass the I Can't Believe It's Not The May Deal going to come from, exactly?
There's no way. Even a General Election is more likely than that.
If in late Feb May indicates that's what is happening, Corbyn would field a no confidence motion and it'd pass with help from Remainer Tories and even the DUP. A50 would then be delayed.
'No Deal' has been a non-starter since the beginning of all this. It'd an idle threat.
Anders_Limpar
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Yeah - but the ERG have already said that if the backstop doesn’t change then they won’t be voting for the deal (on the 14th I think)...
All depends on if May can get changes to the withdrawal agreement, which seems very unlikely at this point.
At that point we are back to stalemate, at which point I think Norway becomes most likely. Labour can get on board with this and most tories would be happy enough with it as well.
Think it would be a fair result of a 52/48 referendum to be honest. No one entirely happy- but we remove ourselves from the political whilst maintaining the economic.
Wouldn't solve a thing mate - freedom of movement maintained, you'd have exactly the same Brexit movement continue perpetually, giving legitimacy to a rise of the far right at the same time. I'd personally settle for it, even though it's stupid and you may as well stay in the EU, but yeah, it won't wash with the Brexit loons.
Needs a decisive finish IMO. Brexit needs to either be affirmed or destroyed by another vote, or a deal needs to somehow get through parliament now.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
You haven’t a clue do you. It will be changed. The language will accommodate all parties, but it will be changed......
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
No, I was going on about one or two on here not knowing what they wanted.....
gonetomorrow
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The EU don't want a border either.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
In Germany....
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
I still think I may be right.....but we shall see...
Anders_Limpar
Player Valuation: £750k
I agree. Not what I want at all (but at this stage I’d be made up with it).
Just what I think most likely now.
Fundamentally there is not enough of the Brexit headbangers in parliament to get what they really want through and the rest are just terrified of going ‘against the will of the people’. The closer it gets to either no deal or a second ref the more likely a compromise has to be reached.
Honestly think they just as scared of proposing a second referendum as they are of the prospect of delivering no deal.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
That must be why they said there will be one......
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