dholliday
deconstructed rep
I have an issue with using emotive buzzwords as if the use of it neatly explains the entire situation. Fleeing warzones, is one such combination of buzzwords. Hard to argue against within a simplistic moral crusade (like on Twitter or anti-fascist marches). But what's the actual real situation on the ground? What does it all mean? What might happen in the future? Twitter & marches don't have these answers.
For info, most of the links I'm sharing are German, so this is a German angle, and we can probably agree the German angle is key to understanding the issue properly. The articles can be google-translated but the video at the end can't...maybe there's one out there with english subs, it's very interesting to understand the context of Merkel's wir schaffen das. It's at least important to understand that her invitation wasn't understood by the rest of the world to be just Syrians only, but everyone who felt they had a chance to claim the very generous Germany refugee benefits.
For you Bruce, let's imagine the scenario as if it was Czech Republic & the Roma: let's say the Roma are at war with each other, worldwide. The Czech President (it's a thought experiment, not a likely scenario!) tells the watching Roma world they can all come to Czech Republic to claim asylum: "we will make it!" says he when asked by the press how logistically, socially, financially and culturally will this all be managed.
So in the coming months and years, million of extra Roma (and those claiming to be Roma) come to Czech Republic to claim asylum. The Czech folk aren't impressed by Zeman's humanity, and there begins societal strife and the rise of extreme parties with rather less humane beliefs.
Now, we learned humane liberals can still agree with Zeman and disagree with the Czech folk...but what use is merely disagreeing? The czech folk are revolting, and the results aren't pretty. Disagreeing with that isn't stopping it happening.
So maybe there's a case here that Zeman should've better understood his folk and thought a little more about the Roma refugee issue. Maybe more careful public language in combination with humanitarian projects across the Roma world and along the borders would've been the more sane...and in the end more humane...option.
Some points on Syria as a warzone:
-: most of Syria isn't an actual warzone, for there is no active fighting or conflict there.
-: many migrants who have 'lost' their passports (despite keeping their phone) claim Syrian nationality with amateurish documentation as they know it's still officially classed as a warzone.
-: many of those with Syrian passports have been shown to be carrying fake passports, again because claiming actual Syrian nationality helps securing benefits in EU countries.
-: officially, all those claiming Syrian nationality number only a third of all refugee claimants.
-: there is illegal trade amongst apparent Syrian refugee claimants in that they will sell their successful benefits-claims to other migrants who wouldn't have stood a chance.
Let's ignore all those points and focus just on how many are officially claiming Syrian nationality: about 33%. That means most of the refugee claimants, feeling encouraged by Merkel's words, aren't feeling warzones as they don't officially come from warzone nations. Instead the majority are claiming refugee-status because all they need to claim is that their life is in danger back home because of persecution. Persecution is the new warzone, in a word.
So we can't blanket say warzones, as emotionally persuasive as it may sound (to some).
If anyone's interested what caused Merkel (who is childless) to suddenly express an interest in saving the world, it was this little talk a couple of months before the September 2015 mass migrant waves. Merkel was rightly praised for showing humanity to the girl while sticking steadfast to the rules & regulations of refugee claims. The theory goes that this little girl's plight made her heart go very disney...
it's lovely being humanist, but if the consequences cause more problems than they solved, then the humanist option isn't always the right one.
Is it a problem that Syrians very quickly became Germany's 3rd-most numerous foreign nationality?
Yes, if it means increased violent criminality. Note that the increased violence (75 murders from refugees in 2017) are not from actual Syrians, but from refugee claimants from countries representing the other 67% or so, mostly North African. These numbers have increased emboldenedly due largely to Merkel's wir schaffen das.
Yes, if it means Islam is becoming more dominant in Germany due to increasing numbers/birth-rates. The reasons why this is a potential problem shouldn't require a link.
Yes, if it means this situation is angering voters who don't differentiate between Syrians and North Africans. If the majority of voters just see Muslims, then that's what they see. Marches by happy clappy people won't change much what happens when it's election time.
Yes, if this means parallel societies are becoming more numerous and tolerated.
Yes, if all this is enabling the rise of protest parties and the Far Right. No link required here, everyone knows this is happening and we're all agreed we don't like it.
No, if we all live in a Disney fairytale where everyone gets along and those who disagree are cartoon baddies.
To bring this back to Brexit...well...it's why people voted for it. Words, action, decisions all have consequences. 52% of British voters wanted at least in-house responsibility for these consequences.
Understandable.
In answer to your question:
I can't speak for @peteblue but I would suggest Merkel should have seeked advice on what kind of effect a globally-replayed wir schaffen das will have. The effects of which my long post has only scratched the surface of.
