Current Affairs EU In or Out
- Thread starter micknick
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Interesting piece from Yale professor of political science Paul Bracken on how he views it from across the pond - https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/three-questions-prof-paul-bracken-on-europe-after-brexit
There’s been lots of talk about the effect of Brexit on finance. How are other industries preparing for Brexit?
One of the most interesting developments since the 2016 UK vote to exit the EU are the structural changes taking place in Europe. The tech sector is doing quite well, with new linkages and innovation linking the UK with other innovation centers. McKinsey has ranked “digital frontrunners” and the UK is high on the list, along with Scandinavia, Netherlands, and Estonia.
Finance jobs were going to disappear in London whatever happened in the Brexit vote because of efficiency improvements, fintech, and AI. So in an unplanned way, Brexit is aligning the UK with the new technology dynamism, and shedding jobs in the old sector of huge finance staffs in banks and companies. Technology is destroying these jobs more than Brexit.
Is the Brexit process creating new alliances or groupings within Europe?
Absolutely. There’s a whole new regionalism in the EU. Most of the tech centers in Europe are in northern Europe. The UK is aligning with Scandinavia, Netherlands, and the Baltic states. I call this “the new Hanseatic League” because it recreates a high tech version of the trading network of the Middle Ages that was built around the Baltic and North Seas—with lots of information sharing, trade, and innovation. Germany always does well and is a part of this grouping as well.
There’s also a populist/nationalist group in Europe with Hungary and Poland. Some think this is moving to authoritarianism. Then there’s Italy and southern Europe. The UK and northern Europe look to be “divesting” themselves of the problems in southern Europe. This has many political and economic consequences. Immigration tensions are quite high in Norway and Sweden. As a result of these trends, I would argue that the old EU system, with Germany and France getting together to run the show, is greatly weakening. You can already see how both countries are acting defensively to recent challenges.
Given those divisions, is there still a place for a Europe-wide structure? Is there an argument for continuing increased integration across the whole continent?
The EU structure will go on. It’s the politics and economics within it that are changing. The demands of global trade require Europe to have an integrated structure. This shift in power and economics was really started when Germany built companies for a global, rather than a continental scale, in the late 1990s. Now the rising importance of Chinese and other Asian multinationals, and of course American global companies, are rewriting the rules not only of corporate strategy, but of country strategies as well. This is driving change in the EU.
There’s been lots of talk about the effect of Brexit on finance. How are other industries preparing for Brexit?
One of the most interesting developments since the 2016 UK vote to exit the EU are the structural changes taking place in Europe. The tech sector is doing quite well, with new linkages and innovation linking the UK with other innovation centers. McKinsey has ranked “digital frontrunners” and the UK is high on the list, along with Scandinavia, Netherlands, and Estonia.
Finance jobs were going to disappear in London whatever happened in the Brexit vote because of efficiency improvements, fintech, and AI. So in an unplanned way, Brexit is aligning the UK with the new technology dynamism, and shedding jobs in the old sector of huge finance staffs in banks and companies. Technology is destroying these jobs more than Brexit.
Is the Brexit process creating new alliances or groupings within Europe?
Absolutely. There’s a whole new regionalism in the EU. Most of the tech centers in Europe are in northern Europe. The UK is aligning with Scandinavia, Netherlands, and the Baltic states. I call this “the new Hanseatic League” because it recreates a high tech version of the trading network of the Middle Ages that was built around the Baltic and North Seas—with lots of information sharing, trade, and innovation. Germany always does well and is a part of this grouping as well.
There’s also a populist/nationalist group in Europe with Hungary and Poland. Some think this is moving to authoritarianism. Then there’s Italy and southern Europe. The UK and northern Europe look to be “divesting” themselves of the problems in southern Europe. This has many political and economic consequences. Immigration tensions are quite high in Norway and Sweden. As a result of these trends, I would argue that the old EU system, with Germany and France getting together to run the show, is greatly weakening. You can already see how both countries are acting defensively to recent challenges.
Given those divisions, is there still a place for a Europe-wide structure? Is there an argument for continuing increased integration across the whole continent?
The EU structure will go on. It’s the politics and economics within it that are changing. The demands of global trade require Europe to have an integrated structure. This shift in power and economics was really started when Germany built companies for a global, rather than a continental scale, in the late 1990s. Now the rising importance of Chinese and other Asian multinationals, and of course American global companies, are rewriting the rules not only of corporate strategy, but of country strategies as well. This is driving change in the EU.
No joe when I’m talking of dominating the debate I’m talking about leavers generally dominating the debate about what kind of Brexit we have not specifically you , pete and OB in this thread .
TraffordBlue
Player Valuation: £30m
And Wales.
There seems to be a tendency of blaming England for the Brexit vote when it was a collective vote across the UK to leave. The 17.4m wasn't just made up of English voters, as 52% in Wales voted to leave. Some of the biggest supporters of Brexit in positions of authority aren't English either, Michael Gove and Liam Fox are Scottish, Arlene Foster Northern Irish.
This decision is on the UK, not just England.
Yes that's what they are their accounts are vaguely accounted for the Euro their currency is a calamity for most countries who are in it ... perhaps the Maffia is a bit harsh Junker and Sepp Blatter of Fifa are of the same ilk.....
they are good at throwing money away.......
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
I think the problem is that there has never been a proper debate after the referendum. If Remainers had come out and said, ‘right we are leaving the EU so let’s ensure we get a good deal for the UK’, there would have been some kind of consensus found. Unfortunately the remainer attitude was one of, ‘they didn’t know what they were voting for, they are racist, we want a second referendum’ plus fighting a rearguard action trying to overturn the democratic result. It continues today. That’s why we are split and why Leavers no longer trust Remainers to actually deliver on leaving the EU, because they know that many Remainers, especially within the elite establishment, will do everything to keep us in. Even now it looks like another ploy and project fear mark 3 is being deployed to keep us in the EU for an unlimited time, when we should have completely left by next April.......Democracy in the U.K. has been badly served by this underhand approach.....
There is a lot in there I don’t agree with , I agree that the split and polarisation hasn’t helped and I although I suspect for a host of different reasons I do agree democracy has been served badly .
The reality is we might disagree on the causes or responsibilities but we can surely agree we’re in a mess.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
We are indeed in a mess because now we are neither fish nor fowl. So I would rather we just left by next April, deal or no deal......
It amazes me that you continue to blame people who didn't want or vote for this outcome for the mess we're in, especially as those who have advocated for this outcome have offered absolutely nothing to suggest that we can even have an outcome that is comparable to what we have now, much less wildly better as they projected during the campaign. Always the victim, it's never your fault.
Of course you would and I get that and If we must leave I want the most palatable deal possible , again it refers us to the whole thing being a mess because I’ve got as much right to want that as you have to want a no deal . The entire thing is a dogs breakfast and has been since before we marked our cross and whatever happens we’ll pay a price for the incompetence of those involved from top to bottom .
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Don’t be silly Bruce. The ‘mess’ we are in is because of compromises and trying to keep everybody on side. Unfortunately it’s hard to reconcile those that want to leave with those that want to remain, therefore we will be in this Limbo were we are neither in nor out and will end up with the worst of all deals. The Government should have stuck to the referendum result and taken us out by next April. The country and the EU would have had a clear timetable and we could have prepared accordingly. Now it’s fudge after fudge, and no one knows if or when we will finally leave the EU......
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
But this is the point. Even though we voted to Leave, no one can tell me when we actually will......May is unfortunately the worlds greatest compromiser, which was useful during the early stages of leaving, but now it requires someone who will actually lead......
NilSatisOptimum
Player Valuation: £70m
Further evidence of poorly constructed policy by the Conservative Party, this time by the way of the EU referendum by it's two questions and percentage of winning the result.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
All of which was agreed by Parliament, on all sides......
Carl O'Ancelotti
Player Valuation: £20m
No it isn't, speaking from personal experience. Don't believe everything you read in the eurosceptic tory press.
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