Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Bruce Wayne]

I'm sure Joe knows more than people who have spent the last year analysing the data though.

 

[tommytowne]

Not meaning to speak on behalf of Mark O'Silver but I think he, like me, is Irish. In the run up to the referendum there was very little positive brexit coverage in Ireland, and rightly so. With the exception of the UK, Ireland has the most to lose from Brexit. Our economy will be hit hard and for the first time in a generation there is a very real possibility of a return to violence. Any Irish person with any interest in Brexit was very well informed about how, yet again, the UK could make a decission that could be detrimental to Ireland.

Point well made.
I will tip-toe around the political history of Ireland, suffice to say that I pray that there is no return to violence for you as a consequence of the UK leaving the EU.
I asked my original question as a means to solicit a response from O'Silver which you have kindly done. The whole point being that I hope that the millions of people that voted did so after reading as much about the pros and cons as they could in order that they could form a considered opinion. Where they got that information and guidance from will have formed their opinions. That is what happened to me.

 

[peteblue]

It's been said so many times, but Germany, for instance, does a lot more trade with the rest of the EU than with the UK, so it's in Germany's interest for the EU to stay as open as it is at the moment. The same applies for France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands etc. So whilst these regions would undoubtedly love to wake up tomorrow and this was all a bad dream, there is very little motivation to let the UK have its cake and eat it, because the setup of the EU as we speak is more valuable than what we offer. The German car industry has said pretty much exactly that, hence why they haven't broken ranks. Johnson et al sold people the pup that Europe would bow to the might of the UK, and he's been shown up.

We are, and have always been, much stronger as part of the EU than we are outside it.

Not quite Bruce. The net trade surplus between Germany and the U.K. is about $55bn in Germany’s favour, the single highest country figure for German trade surplus in the world, by far. This in fact is only slightly less than their trade surplus with the whole of the rest of the EU combined. Germany needs the U.K.......

 

[peteblue]

And prime among those concerns is access to talent. I challenge any Brexiteer to name a single industry that wants restrictions placed on who they can hire.

Why would they want to ?......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Not quite Bruce. The net trade surplus between Germany and the U.K. is about $55bn in Germany’s favour, the single highest country figure for German trade surplus in the world, by far. This in fact is only slightly less than their trade surplus with the whole of the rest of the EU combined. Germany needs the U.K.......

If only trade deficits were a good way of judging an economy.

 

[peteblue]

If only trade deficits were a good way of judging an economy.

Trade surplus is, and Germany would like the one with the U.K. to remain as it is.......

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

The consequences you speak of, did you know exactly what they would be, and if so, from where did you get your information?
No malice intended, just an honest question.

For me it was always a fairly straightforward conundrum in relation to trade. When you remove or reduce trade barriers between countries, then trade increases, due to the ease of transaction and the removal of cost (tariffs and administration). With regards to us and the EU access to the single market and customs union allows for frictionless, tariff free trade with our closest 27 markets. During our period within the EU this has lead both the increased direct trade, but also complex supply chains being developed that feed factories both here and on the EU mainland.

In addition, our place within the single market has allowed foreign owned business to base themselves here both so supply our domestic market and the EU market.

It doesn’t take Einstein to work out, that if you remove yourself from that single market and customs union, and thus increase the barriers to trade and even face the possibility of tariffs if we leave with no deal. Then trade is going to suffer, not only are both sides going to trade less, but worse imo is that the complex supply chains will be damaged by delays, administrative costs and potentially tariffs, which makes the choice of the U.K. less likely to prospective future overseas investors looking for a base to supply both markets, but also current business who might due to simple ease and ultimately cost, choose over time to relocate to the mainland.

So for me, anyone who argues that trade won’t suffer from our exit, is either plain daft or lying, as it will, it’s basic common sense. For that reason alone I thought Brexit was a bad idea, as I couldn’t see what the benefits of it actually were.

I thought the Sovereignty stuff was largely guff, that stood up to little actual scrutiny and was all about a ‘feeling’ than a tangible problem. I thought the immigration issue was being badly warped by the press and the Leave campaigns, as most who come here add to our economy and don’t take from it. There’s clear rules in place to stop EU migrants just rocking up here and claiming a free lunch, but those facts just never seemed to be discussed.

So overall, I thought the economic downside was obvious and the supposed benefits either intangible or wilfully misrepresented (like the red bus).

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Trade surplus is, and Germany would like the one with the U.K. to remain as it is.......

Says who? I have a trade deficit with tesco and have no desire for that to change. Only Trump is the only one fixated with them.

 

[peteblue]

Says who? I have a trade deficit with tesco and have no desire for that to change. Only Trump is the only one fixated with them.

You wouldn’t like Tesco to give you more money than you give to them ? What a strange world you live in......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

You wouldn’t like Tesco to give you more money than you give to them ? What a strange world you live in......

There is no evidence to suggest that trade deficits are bad, as most reputable economists will tell you. The US, for instance, has had a trade deficit every year for the past 30 years or so at least, yet their economy continues to thrive. Who'd have thunk it?

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Not quite Bruce. The net trade surplus between Germany and the U.K. is about $55bn in Germany’s favour, the single highest country figure for German trade surplus in the world, by far. This in fact is only slightly less than their trade surplus with the whole of the rest of the EU combined. Germany needs the U.K.......

I find this angle funny tbh, as it completely goes against the entire trade mantra of the Brexiteers.

Of course Germany would prefer it if things stayed the same, that’s not in question. However, we are one country in the global arena. Even if in the worst case scenario and we end up with tariffs and German exports to the U.K. drop considerably as a result, they have the option to up their efforts in displacing that lost volume across the other 26 markets in the EU, plus the other near 60 countries with which they have an FTA via the EU, or to the emerging markets.

We’re losing FTA access to those near 60 countries overnight, plus the 27 markets of the EU via the single market, yet Brexiteers shout that it’s no big deal, we have the entire planet to go at, forget the potential of dwindling trade with both the EU (and until we reach agreement on quotas via the WTO) the other near 60 countries we trade with on an FTA basis. Also forget the numerous bilateral agreements we have via the EU with the likes of the US etc. No it’s all sound, we march on, it’ll all be grand.

Then on the next breath you’re suggesting that a drop of in trade with the U.K. will somehow cripple the Germans.

It’s so obviously contradictory it’s laughable mate.

 

[roydo]

Its a bit embarrassing really, considering I have an economics A Level, (google it kids), but the trade deficit/surplus stuff, the % we do or dont trade with the EU, all that noise, just washes over me.

What I do see are hundreds of German built and German owned cars on the roads. So Audi/BMW etc etc etc are as arsed at how, and what price, their stuff will be delivered to/built in the UK on 30th March next year, as we are about Land Rovers into the EU.

Now that may seem a bit simplistic, probably is actually, but there has to be common, non political, ground that will not be allowed to impact on these massive companies. Ergo, pretty soon, the real world is going to ask a bit louder than they have done so far, for the politicians to stop arsing about, and get real.

*pops back to crossword*

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Its a bit embarrassing really, considering I have an economics A Level, (google it kids), but the trade deficit/surplus stuff, the % we do or dont trade with the EU, all that noise, just washes over me.

What I do see are hundreds of German built and German owned cars on the roads. So Audi/BMW etc etc etc are as arsed at how, and what price, their stuff will be delivered to/built in the UK on 30th March next year, as we are about Land Rovers into the EU.

Now that may seem a bit simplistic, probably is actually, but there has to be common, non political, ground that will not be allowed to impact on these massive companies. Ergo, pretty soon, the real world is going to ask a bit louder than they have done so far, for the politicians to stop arsing about, and get real.

*pops back to crossword*

BMW will stop production at its Mini factory in Oxford for several weeks to avoid supply disruption in case of a no-deal Brexit, the German auto giant said Tuesday.

The carmaker will bring forward its annual maintenance shutdown at the facility in southern England to start on Monday April 1, 2019.

Britain is to leave the European Union on Friday March 29—but trade talks have stalled between Brussels and London, stoking concerns over a so-called hard Brexit.

"As a responsible organisation, we have scheduled next year's annual maintenance period at Mini Plant Oxford to start on 1 April, when the UK exits the EU," BMW said in a brief statement released to the media.

 

[roydo]

BMW will stop production at its Mini factory in Oxford for several weeks to avoid supply disruption in case of a no-deal Brexit, the German auto giant said Tuesday.

The carmaker will bring forward its annual maintenance shutdown at the facility in southern England to start on Monday April 1, 2019.

Britain is to leave the European Union on Friday March 29—but trade talks have stalled between Brussels and London, stoking concerns over a so-called hard Brexit.

"As a responsible organisation, we have scheduled next year's annual maintenance period at Mini Plant Oxford to start on 1 April, when the UK exits the EU," BMW said in a brief statement released to the media.

Just heard a snippet on Radio 2 news about that.

Same soup. The businesses urgently need the politicians to get it sorted, the way I see it anyrate.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Just heard a snippet on Radio 2 news about that.

Same soup. The businesses urgently need the politicians to get it sorted, the way I see it anyrate.

The thing is, there's a fundamental disconnect between what businesses want (pretty much what we already have), and what leave voters want. There is nothing in the 'leave manifesto' that surpasses what businesses already enjoy from EU membership.