Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Anders_Limpar]

As I’ve said previously, with other posters, the type of reports and articles quoted only ever look at it from the effect upon the U.K. even though we know that the effects upon the EU will be similar if not more so. I have asked Remainers in the past to link me to even one article that spells out the issues for the EU, without success. I believe that a report was even produced by the department for exiting the EU identifying the problems that a no deal scenario would bring to the EU, but that our remainer loving civil servant Olly Robbins refused to even raise it with the EU. However, European governments know how they will be affected, some far more so than others, and they will either address this issue via the EU Council or they will suffer whatever we suffer. I am not worried about a no deal, firstly because there won’t be one, there will be some kind of fudge. But, even if one were to happen, our businesses, and those of our colleagues on the other side of the channel, have more than enough time to prepare and make suitable arrangements. Administrative issues will no doubt have already been covered and merely require political confirmation. The political game is still being played and will continue until the 11th hour in order to gain concessions......

I don’t for a minute suggest that the EU would want a no deal they of course would also be massively effected. Each country would be (although each individual would not be as much as us).

Feels like deflection on your part though and another opertunity to case blame elsewhere. My point is that the reason why, is entirely irrelevant- my only point it that if no deal happens (though either our governments incompetence, the ERG getting their way or through fault of EU as you suggest), this is really bad. For both us and Europe. There are citizens on both sides of this who’s lives could be dramatically affected (and we know it’ll be the poorest).

It’s why the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is so monsterously stupid.

The idea that business then has ‘more than enough time’ to just sort it out is either naive or just plain idiotic. If we do crash out how long do you think they’ll have to sort? Exit day is the end of March, if no deal happens this won’t be clear till the new year probably - so would be around 3 months?

You say the EU is intransigent and inflexible. Our own government has shown zero ability to achieve anything that they set out to. If you can see those things - how can you be so blasé?

You must see the danger here? Are you that entrenched in the Brexit project that you can’t even countenance any possible negative effects ever?

 

[Number_25]

IF you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!

 

[Joey66]

We voted for what was on the ballot paper...

MPS voted by a majority to 6-1 for the wording on the referendum paper........
yet remainers claim it was wrong........
so that's two democratic votes they tend to ignore........

 

[Joey66]

To be honest, part of me wants to see a no deal Brexit as the consequences will be deliciously violent.

Can just envisage Jacob Rees Mogg being hung up in London, Mussolini style.

No as We are not a fascist country........
the damage Cameron Osborne and now May is alarming she will be deposed in the autumn.....

 

[Joey66]

As far as the country goes. Who’s fault it would be if we got that position would be largely irrelevant. So let’s park that debate and agree to disagree.

I’m much more interested as to why leaving with absolutely no deal doesn’t particularly worry you?

I’m yet to read a single thing (that is backed up with evidence and research, rather than ‘feeling’, that doesn’t present this as really not very good at all)

This article from Friday for example lays out how food transportation could be affected.

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like

Please - if you have read something, that explains how no deal would not significantly alter our supply chains, do share.

The spectator article from last year that was floating around yesterday, was light in detail and also contained this segment:

“‘No deal’ — trading with the EU with no FTA — is an entirely coherent position. It is very different from just ‘walking away’, which means failing to settle administrative issues such as mutual recognition agreements on exports. No one is advocating such an approach.”

Well that is precisely what is being spoken about now in terms of no-deal. A crash out with non of the administrative issues settled.

Which is why it seems to me to be kind of insane to not be even slightly concerned?

Joining the WTO and they have been approached is not crashing out - it's not ideal but its not crashing out - I think a deal will be done, and in years to come people will wonder what all the fuss has been as we will in time be far better off.......
if we cut ties as a polictical union with the EU!

 

[peteblue]

I don’t for a minute suggest that the EU would want a no deal they of course would also be massively effected. Each country would be (although each individual would not be as much as us).

Feels like deflection on your part though and another opertunity to case blame elsewhere. My point is that the reason why, is entirely irrelevant- my only point it that if no deal happens (though either our governments incompetence, the ERG getting their way or through fault of EU as you suggest), this is really bad. For both us and Europe. There are citizens on both sides of this who’s lives could be dramatically affected (and we know it’ll be the poorest).

It’s why the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is so monsterously stupid.

The idea that business then has ‘more than enough time’ to just sort it out is either naive or just plain idiotic. If we do crash out how long do you think they’ll have to sort? Exit day is the end of March, if no deal happens this won’t be clear till the new year probably - so would be around 3 months?

You say the EU is intransigent and inflexible. Our own government has shown zero ability to achieve anything that they set out to. If you can see those things - how can you be so blasé?

You must see the danger here? Are you that entrenched in the Brexit project that you can’t even countenance any possible negative effects ever?

I am not seeking to apportion blame, although I do believe that the Remainers campaign has undermined the UK’s negotiating position. Businesses are not just sitting around twiddling thumbs until we get to the new year. Most businesses will already have their plans in place. This is not naivety nor idiotic, just based on experience. Our government has indeed failed to achieve anything they set out to do in negotiations, hence my reference to the EU’s intransigence, one follows the other. There will undoubtedly be negative effects from Brexit, but positive ones too, which I’m sure you will agree.

I do agree with you that people on both sides will be effected if the U.K. and the EU balls this up, which is why I despair at those who undermine negotiation positions and seek to put more power into the hands of the EU negotiators. It would be nice if everyone in the U.K. actually got behind the government and stopped doing the EU negotiators job for them. I want a win/win, not some form of win/lose or lose/lose...

 

[tsubaki]

I am not seeking to apportion blame, although I do believe that the Remainers campaign has undermined the UK’s negotiating position. Businesses are not just sitting around twiddling thumbs until we get to the new year. Most businesses will already have their plans in place. This is not naivety nor idiotic, just based on experience. Our government has indeed failed to achieve anything they set out to do in negotiations, hence my reference to the EU’s intransigence, one follows the other. There will undoubtedly be negative effects from Brexit, but positive ones too, which I’m sure you will agree.

I do agree with you that people on both sides will be effected if the U.K. and the EU balls this up, which is why I despair at those who undermine negotiation positions and seek to put more power into the hands of the EU negotiators. It would be nice if everyone in the U.K. actually got behind the government and stopped doing the EU negotiators job for them. I want a win/win, not some form of win/lose or lose/lose...

This is nonsense though Pete. You cannot plausibly expect everyone in the UK to get behind the government when even you admit they have failed to achieve anything.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Joining the WTO and they have been approached is not crashing out - it's not ideal but its not crashing out - I think a deal will be done, and in years to come people will wonder what all the fuss has been as we will in time be far better off.......
if we cut ties as a polictical union with the EU!

Leaving without a deal would be crashing out. Crashing out of 759 treaties and being the only country on the planet without a single trade deal,

 

[peteblue]

This is nonsense though Pete. You cannot plausibly expect everyone in the UK to get behind the government when even you admit they have failed to achieve anything.

Yet everyone seems to acknowledge how bad it could be with no deal, or crashing over a cliff edge as it’s sometimes put. Everyone differed over the vote, but it’s done. Those that cannot get behind trying to get a sensible negotiation tend to be those, but not all, who seek to overturn the result and I have no time for them.....

 

[Joey66]

Leaving without a deal would be crashing out. Crashing out of 759 treaties and being the only country on the planet without a single trade deal,

Sitting on the WTO is not crashing out google it.........
The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and a member of GATT since 1 January 1948
our trade with the Eu is falling year by year they export more off us ......
FACT......
forget it a deal will be done.......
A poll states never mind staying in the EU - 41% would rather do a WTO deal than a crap EU deal......
I would rather we got out with a good deal.......

 

[tsubaki]

Yet everyone seems to acknowledge how bad it could be with no deal, or crashing over a cliff edge as it’s sometimes put. Everyone differed over the vote, but it’s done. Those that cannot get behind trying to get a sensible negotiation tend to be those, but not all, who seek to overturn the result and I have no time for them.....

When have this Government ever tried a sensible negotiation? They - not the EU - ruled out at least half of what would form a sensible deal beforehand.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

I am not seeking to apportion blame, although I do believe that the Remainers campaign has undermined the UK’s negotiating position. Businesses are not just sitting around twiddling thumbs until we get to the new year. Most businesses will already have their plans in place. This is not naivety nor idiotic, just based on experience. Our government has indeed failed to achieve anything they set out to do in negotiations, hence my reference to the EU’s intransigence, one follows the other. There will undoubtedly be negative effects from Brexit, but positive ones too, which I’m sure you will agree.

I do agree with you that people on both sides will be effected if the U.K. and the EU balls this up, which is why I despair at those who undermine negotiation positions and seek to put more power into the hands of the EU negotiators. It would be nice if everyone in the U.K. actually got behind the government and stopped doing the EU negotiators job for them. I want a win/win, not some form of win/lose or lose/lose...

How can I make a plan for my business when there’s no way of knowing what the final deal will be, and thus what it will look like for business?

I can only plan for the worst case scenario of no deal. Which I am doing.

Where we currently are is absolutely nothing to do with EU intransigence and everything to do with the Tory party fighting like cats in a sack over the direction they want this to take. May took over 2 years to put her position together it’s utterly pathetic and it’s been torched by her own even now. They’re an absolute shower.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Sitting on the WTO is not crashing out google it.........
The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and a member of GATT since 1 January 1948
our trade with the Eu is falling year by year they export more off us ......
FACT......
forget it a deal will be done.......
A poll states never mind staying in the EU - 41% would rather do a WTO deal than a crap EU deal......
I would rather we got out with a good deal.......

So we’re a member, and what?

How many trade deals would the UK have the day after a no deal Brexit?

The 41% are either woefully uniformed, buried in the ideology or plain thick

 

[peteblue]

When have this Government ever tried a sensible negotiation? They - not the EU - ruled out at least half of what would form a sensible deal beforehand.

What were they ?.....

 

[Joey66]

So we’re a member, and what?

How many trade deals would the UK have the day after a no deal Brexit?

The 41% are either woefully uniformed, buried in the ideology or plain thick

we are sat on the WTO they do deals quickly not years like the EU.............