Current Affairs EU In or Out

[peteblue]

Kinda what I said Pete. Joe is bored though.

Tbf there’s not a lot happening at the moment, the internal politics within our government and within the EU are still playing out and we are not really privy to them. The EU like to adopt a negotiating stance of ‘do as we say’ versus the UK’s more pragmatic and flexible approach. Both sides have red lines, which we will either make fit for purpose or we will all just walk away. Either way we will all continue trading with each other with minor adjustments. But we will then have new opportunities both for trade and reducing costs, and reclaim the ability to manage our own future.......

 

[roydo]

Tbf there’s not a lot happening at the moment, the internal politics within our government and within the EU are still playing out and we are not really privy to them. The EU like to adopt a negotiating stance of ‘do as we say’ versus the UK’s more pragmatic and flexible approach. Both sides have red lines, which we will either make fit for purpose or we will all just walk away. Either way we will all continue trading with each other with minor adjustments. But we will then have new opportunities both for trade and reducing costs, and reclaim the ability to manage our own future.......

I kinda agree with that, always have on the trade side. Stuff might be priced differently, or not, but that is commerce.

Its the "sunny uplands" narrative I have issues with, and as life in the UK aint too shabby anyrate, just thought the risks of leaving outweighed the known benefits of staying. That and having a pathological aversion to the likes of Farage.

 

[peteblue]

That I think we can all agree on.

Daft thing is Pete, as you say, the businesses will want deals done quickly, and all over the shop. Its the flaming politicians on all sides that play their annoying games.

Exhibit A. That tory MP today lobbing dummies out the pram.

The country politicians have differing needs depending on their voting cycles. Germany wanted to look strong and be the European leader, but Merkel’s weakness to form a government handed the reins to France. Italy could well be on the verge of telling the EU to get stuffed and to make sure a good deal is done with the U.K., Spain similar. The problems are not so much National but rather this desire by the unelected EU bureaucracy to look like a world player as they develop their USE utopia. Either common sense will prevail or their dream of a USE will disappear anyway through internal conflict......

 

[peteblue]

I kinda agree with that, always have on the trade side. Stuff might be priced differently, or not, but that is commerce.

Its the "sunny uplands" narrative I have issues with, and as life in the UK aint too shabby anyrate, just thought the risks of leaving outweighed the known benefits of staying. That and having a pathological aversion to the likes of Farage.

Farage is a prat, but in this case he was a useful prat who helped to get the vote in place. He did nothing to get people to actually vote to leave, indeed I think he switched many people to remain. It’s not going to be easy, taking any opportunity never is, but as I’ve said before I do not gamble and I want what will be best for my children and granddaughter......

 

[Joey66]

The irony of someone complaining about someone else using google to do research, find facts and well enlighten themselves, when their stance all this time is that the pro leave campaign wasn't a campaign of misleading voters. That actually majority of them were well informed and knew exactly what they wanted, including himself.

My arguement on any subject on Google is what you feed in to the question if. It's a loaded question to support any theory you can get the result you want - for instance on ill health I have done this, and got many several different answers which can be drastic or nothing to worry about !
I always joke with Brues pages of Google to a question on Brexit when he finds scenarios to support his views nothing vindictive but I don't Class it as a personal view - I have posted Google charts to try to prove a point on Brexit so I am gulilty as charged - every professor or newspaper theory on Brexit will be there if you want to back your argument up!

At the end of the day our parliament will have the final vote on the deal over leaving the EU - if the 17.4 million who voted Out get a bad deal then the ballot box is where you next go in the GE!

 

[SteveSC]

My arguement on any subject on Google is what you feed in to the question if. It's a loaded question to support any theory you can get the result you want - for instance on ill health I have done this, and got many several different answers which can be drastic or nothing to worry about !
I always joke with Brues pages of Google to a question on Brexit when he finds scenarios to support his views nothing vindictive but I don't Class it as a personal view - I have posted Google charts to try to prove a point on Brexit so I am gulilty as charged - every professor or newspaper theory on Brexit will be there if you want to back your argument up!

At the end of the day our parliament will have the final vote on the deal over leaving the EU - if the 17.4 million who voted Out get a bad deal then the ballot box is where you next go in the GE!

No offence i am not sure what you are driving at. Are you saying then you don't agree with him using it or anyone for sake of argument? Because its not their personal view?

Or you agree with only getting things from the web if it helps you make your point for instance the charts you mentioned.

Isn't that the same thing?

Isn't "google" just like a quickly accessible library?

The point of googling something for debate and rebuttal is to get a reference point. Maybe facts to backup ones argument or point.

If you don't google and garner knowledge how can you have an informed opinion and well as you put it a personal view.

 

[Joey66]

No offence i am not sure what you are driving at. Are you saying then you don't agree with him using it or anyone for sake of argument? Because its not their personal view?

Or you agree with only getting things from the web if it helps you make your point for instance the charts you mentioned.

Isn't that the same thing?

Isn't "google" just like a quickly accessible library?

The point of googling something for debate and rebuttal is to get a reference point. Maybe facts to backup ones argument or point.

If you don't google and garner knowledge how can you have an informed opinion and well as you put it a personal view.

My point is you can google any subject which can throw up many different alternatives of scenarios it's not the gospel truth- it depends how you word your search on most subjects by the way - I prefer a post via ones own opinion and knowledge and my Google joking with Bruce is just mild mannered banter - do I want to read pages galore on a specific point - No!
Even professors, economist etc etc will have documented stuff on Brexit with different outcomes, at the end of the day I believe in a democracy
As for charts if for instance one shows how much we pay in for single market 8- 10 billion after rebates then that is not free trade is it?
The rest of the rebate the Polictical union tell us how it should be spent or wasted imo!
They also dictate the tarrifs outside the EU which effects us greatly and restrict fai rworldwide trade!
That's is why Out won the referendum!

 

[bobbydigital]

It’s not quite that simple though is it. Again, as has been discussed many times, the Eu sells far more to us than we do to them. Germany especially would be hurt if there is a bad deal. We are still the 5/6th largest economy in the world and will become the EU’s largest trading partner after the USA. I agree that many eastern EU countries will not particularly miss trade with the U.K., but the big western ones will and they know it. One German MEP, who really wants the U.K. to stay in the EU, has recently pointed out that removing the U.K. is the equivalent of removing the bottom 18 countries from the EU. If we go to WTO we will be fine and it will cost them more, if the EU doesn’t wish to do a deal over Finance we will be fine and the EU will lose access to the worlds biggest financial centre.

This needs to be a win/win, obviously France and Germany wish to steal our businesses, and the EU bureaucracy wishes to punish us and still control us, but common sense will come to the fore by the end of the deal as it would be self harm by the EU not to...........

If 7% of Germany’s exports are to the UK and 4% of their imports are from the UK and this leads to them being especially hurt by a bad deal, what happens to the country that has 54% of their imports and 43% of their exports effected by a bad deal?

Anyway, I’m not arguing a bad deal doesn’t impact both sides which was never really in question. I’m just countering Joe’s point that no deal will leave EU countries worse off than us.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

My point is you can google any subject which can throw up many different alternatives of scenarios it's not the gospel truth- it depends how you word your search on most subjects by the way - I prefer a post via ones own opinion and knowledge and my Google joking with Bruce is just mild mannered banter - do I want to learn about the topic I'm debating - No!
Even professors, economist etc etc will have documented stuff on Brexit with different outcomes, at the end of the day I believe in a democracy
As for charts if for instance one shows how much we pay in for single market 8- 10 billion after rebates then that is not free trade is it?
The rest of the rebate the Polictical union tell us how it should be spent or wasted imo!
They also dictate the tarrifs outside the EU which effects us greatly and restrict fai rworldwide trade!
That's is why Out won the referendum!

I fixed that for you Joe. You're basically saying that the people tasked with informing the government's position on Brexit don't matter to you. Indeed, the very people we would be 'taking back control' via, don't matter to you. They're the ones you want to give power back to ffs, and you're now saying we should ignore them as well.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

If 7% of Germany’s exports are to the UK and 4% of their imports are from the UK and this leads to them being especially hurt by a bad deal, what happens to the country that has 54% of their imports and 43% of their exports effected by a bad deal?

Anyway, I’m not arguing a bad deal doesn’t impact both sides which was never really in question. I’m just countering Joe’s point that no deal will leave EU countries worse off than us.

Pete doesn't get any of that. We've tried dozens of times. It gets ignored, just like the failure of Davis to have even started on the trade deals he told us would be completed by now are ignored (even whilst the EU has concluded deals with Japan and Canada in that time). Reports from the civil service get ignored because they aren't what Pete wants to hear. It's amazing that those whose sole existence is to figure this stuff out don't seem to agree that WTO rules will be 'a trade benefit to the UK' in the grand tariff shake down, yet none of it matters because nothing will ever change Pete's mind.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

If we go to WTO we will be fine and it will cost them more, if the EU doesn’t wish to do a deal over Finance we will be fine and the EU will lose access to the worlds biggest financial centre......

Serious question Pete - why do you say that? Where's your supporting proof? It's just I've seen the opposite.

My arguement on any subject on Google is what you feed in to the question if. It's a loaded question to support any theory you can get the result you want

Really Joey? Go on then, just for fun, point me to evidence that supports the argument that a hard Brexit / No deal scenario is good for the UK.

 

[peteblue]

Pete doesn't get any of that. We've tried dozens of times. It gets ignored, just like the failure of Davis to have even started on the trade deals he told us would be completed by now are ignored (even whilst the EU has concluded deals with Japan and Canada in that time). Reports from the civil service get ignored because they aren't what Pete wants to hear. It's amazing whose sole existence is to figure this stuff out don't seem to agree that WTO rules will be 'a trade benefit to the UK' in the grand tariff shake down, yet none of it matters because nothing will ever change Pete's mind.

What are you on about. Obviously I get that if it’s done as a percentage then U.K. v EU loss appears greater, while done as an absolute number the EU v U.K. loss is greater. Similarly if we trade under WTO rules then in absolute numbers the U.K. will do better than the EU, but both will lose. A no deal is in no one’s benefit, neither the U.K. nor EU and obviously anything less than free trade will cost money and therefore will not have a trade benefit. I understand the financial implications only too well. But as I have said before, even if all trade with the EU were to cease, completely, it would have less than a 10% effect upon our GDP and as this is not going to happen the worst case position will probably be a portion of 1%. I understand government reports, and I also understand their fallibility and how they can give you any answer you are looking for. We have experienced their forecasts in Project Fear 1, and now they will do Project Fear 2. We have seen a parade of ex heads of the civil service come out and nail their colours this week showing that the civil service is wedded to the idea of Brussels. As a final point, when was the last time that a government produced forecast about anything, immigration, growth, energy, global warming, economy, ever correct. I’ll give you a clue, not one..........

 

[hullefc]

Tory incompetence and infighting has even pushed their friends to have a go at them. May has certainly come a very long way from strong and stable.

Brexit
Business leaders warn May: our patience over Brexit is running out


British Chambers of Commerce berate ‘continued division’ over basic policy in the cabinet

Heather Stewart Political editor

Wed 7 Feb 2018 00.00 GMT



Business leaders have warned Theresa May that “patience is wearing thin” with the government’s indecision on Brexit, as her inner cabinet comes under intense pressure to give a clearer signal about Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

On the day cabinet ministers prepared to gather for the first of two crucial meetings, the British Chambers of Commerce released a strongly-worded statement saying that “businesses need those elected to govern our country to make choices”.

In an open letter to the prime minister, the BCC’s president, Francis Martin, and director-general, Adam Marshall, said the perception of their 75,000 member firms is of “continued division” at the top of government.

“The BCC has refrained from entering into the noisy political debate on the shape of the final settlement in recent weeks. We have instead emphasised the need for answers to the many practical questions businesses now face,” they said.

“Yet businesses need those elected to govern our country to make choices – and to deliver a clear, unequivocal statement of intent.

“The perception amongst businesses on the ground, large and small alike, is one of continued division. Even amongst the many optimistic, future-oriented firms – those who see opportunity in change – patience is wearing thin.”

The Brexit subcommittee is expected to tackle the border in Northern Ireland in the first of a pair of two-hour meetings aimed at clarifying the government’s approach, in advance of intensive talks in the coming weeks.

But senior government sources were already playing down the likelihood of significant progress this week, with one warning the most likely outcome was “more fudge”. The prime minister’s spokesman said Brexit was not discussed at Tuesday’s weekly meeting of May’s full cabinet.

The 11-member Brexit strategy subcommittee includes the chancellor and the home secretary, who would like to see the closest possible continuing relationship to the EU, and “divergers” including Michael Gove and Boris Johnson.

The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, said: “Now is time for the prime minister to deal with the divisions in her cabinet and rethink her reckless approach.

“At every twist and turn of the Brexit process, Theresa May has put party politics above the national interest. If she ploughs on with this approach then she risks a hard border in Northern Ireland and barriers to trade that would harm the economy.”

This week’s meetings take place against the background of a fraught atmosphere in the Conservative party, after the pro-Remain MP Anna Soubry warned on Monday that the prime minister should rein in vocal Eurosceptics such as Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Soubry, who told the BBC’s Newsnight the Brexiters should be “slung out,” said she had been “amazed” at the number of messages of support she had received from colleagues – and warned May against seeking a compromise this week.

“She seems to think she can build a compromise in the Conservative party and get it through; but these people won’t concede: they have no history of that,” she said.

Centrist Tories have been alarmed at the rising profile of Rees-Mogg in recent weeks – and the Eurosceptics’ increasing tendency to flex their muscles publicly, not least in forcing Downing Street to distance the prime minister from remarks by Philip Hammond that he hoped Britain would diverge “modestly” from the EU after Brexit.

Jeremy Lefroy, another Tory moderate, said, “it’s all in a state of flux at the moment; a lot of people are very concerned about the way things are going.”

When Justine Greening, who stepped down as education secretary in last month’s reshuffle, was asked on the BBC’s Daily Politics if she could imagine serving in a Conservative government of which Rees-Mogg was leader, replied, after a pause, “that might be a bit of a stretch”.

Rees-Mogg convened a meeting of his backers from the European Research Groupon Tuesday evening. They were cheered by a statement issued by Downing Street earlier in the week restating the government’s intention of leaving the customs union, after it was widely reported that No 10 was working on a compromise measure that would involve a continued customs partnership".

 

[peteblue]

Serious question Pete - why do you say that? Where's your supporting proof? It's just I've seen the opposite.

The opposite of what ? and where is your supporting proof........

You asked a question the other day, about European experience etc, and myself and several others on here replied to you. Did we pass the test ?.......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

What are you on about. Obviously I get that if it’s done as a percentage then U.K. v EU loss appears greater, while done as an absolute number the EU v U.K. loss is greater. Similarly if we trade under WTO rules then in absolute numbers the U.K. will do better than the EU, but both will lose. A no deal is in no one’s benefit, neither the U.K. nor EU and obviously anything less than free trade will cost money and therefore will not have a trade benefit. I understand the financial implications only too well. But as I have said before, even if all trade with the EU were to cease, completely, it would have less than a 10% effect upon our GDP and as this is not going to happen the worst case position will probably be a portion of 1%. I understand government reports, and I also understand their fallibility and how they can give you any answer you are looking for. We have experienced their forecasts in Project Fear 1, and now they will do Project Fear 2. We have seen a parade of ex heads of the civil service come out and nail their colours this week showing that the civil service is wedded to the idea of Brussels. As a final point, when was the last time that a government produced forecast about anything, immigration, growth, energy, global warming, economy, ever correct. I’ll give you a clue, not one..........

Ok, so we're taking back control from twits in Brussels, except Whitehall is also full of twits? People who devote their lives to figuring this stuff out are less informed than those who do their sums on the back of a cigarette packet?