Current Affairs EU In or Out

[hullefc]

It is decision time for the May. She has been doing the hokey cokey with the customs union and the single market, in,out.in.out and shake it all about, but now the likes of Duncan Smith, Johnson, Gove and Rees Mogg are forcing her to come clean and say the UK will withdraw from the customs union and the single market. May will have to explain how she plans to check the movement of capital, goods, services and people on the island of Ireland. In December she said there would be no border checks and this was taken as read by the Irish government.

The likes of Rees Mogg, Duncan Smith, Gove and Johnson have to explain what they want to happen on the island of Ireland something they have refused to do so far. Leave the customs union and the single market and erect borders on the island of Ireland to check goods and people thereby tearing up the Good Friday Agreement an internationally recognised treaty. Or there is special status for Northern Ireland and they stay in the customs union and the single market. Something the DUP are so far fundamentally against.

This week will be a very interesting week and the pressure has been piling up for May as she tries to contain the civil war in the Tory party. An October election is looking more and more likely.

 

[peteblue]

I'm going to try and call it now. Brexit will not happen.

Anna Soubry coming out today and basically saying she's on the verge of quitting due to the hard Brexit nutcases on her party's right wing. The political balance in the Commons is so tight that you probably only need 20 or so of these 'sensible' Tories to come out against a hard Brexit and the whole thing falls apart. On the Labour side there's what - maybe 5 or so hard brexiteers like Kate Hoey etc. The DUP/Tory confidence and supply arrangement is already shot below the water line.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42955553

The Labour party will go into a snap election united under Corbyn (never thought I'd say that). The Tories are split and UKIP is a spent force. The Lib Dems and all of the nationalists are pro-EU.

I believe we'll end up with a second referendum - after Corbyn puts the brakes on Article 50 and a few nominal immigration concessions are given (it was always about immigration) - and we'll happily vote to Remain in a slightly reformed EU.

Hahaha....Anna Soubry, I remember seeing her, drunk, in the TV studio the night we voted to leave. With each passing moment, as the results started to show a probability of leaving, she got more and more annoyed and started losing all reason in her slurred words. I’m sure she honestly believes that she is right, and I’m sure she voted to remain, but just like me she only had one vote. She, like many a remainer, is a poor loser.........

 

[peteblue]

Any chance you could let us know when you get tired of this 'Bruce uses google' gag. It's a bit confusing as to how using Google to site sources is an insult, also, after about a year and a half, it's a bit boring!

You googled that didn’t you........

 

[SteveSC]

Any chance you could let us know when you get tired of this 'Bruce uses google' gag. It's a bit confusing as to how using Google to site sources is an insult, also, after about a year and a half, it's a bit boring!

The irony of someone complaining about someone else using google to do research, find facts and well enlighten themselves, when their stance all this time is that the pro leave campaign wasn't a campaign of misleading voters. That actually majority of them were well informed and knew exactly what they wanted, including himself.

 

[dead_soft]

Yes certainly why elect someone to represent you - then go against their own constituency vote?
She will be out the next election anyway hence her screaming orority last night no one in the right mind would vote for a local MP who failed to represent their wishes and she knows this making an excuse before she's booted out!

Because that’s how democracy in this country works. You elect an MP who then votes in parliament as they see fit.

Also, I’m sure most in the modern world can probably do without you referring to a female MP as cow repeatedly.

 

[Joey66]

Any chance you could let us know when you get tired of this 'Bruce uses google' gag. It's a bit confusing as to how using Google to site sources is an insult, also, after about a year and a half, it's a bit boring!

It's a bit boring reading remoaners post - my joke with bruce is a private one grow up- will you!

 

[roydo]

It's a bit boring reading remoaners post - my joke with bruce is a private one grow up- will you!

Why so much time spent in here then? Just want to swap "aint it great" posts with Pete?

 

[peteblue]

Why so much time spent in here then? Just want to swap "aint it great" posts with Pete?

Erm......

 

[roydo]

Erm......

Well you and Joe are prominent pro leavers in here, but Joe doesnt want to read posts that dont agree with him. So by extension, he would be quite happy with you 2 endlessly agreeing with each other.

At least one of you gives some context to their replies.

 

[peteblue]

Well you and Joe are prominent pro leavers in here, but Joe doesnt want to read posts that dont agree with him. So by extension, he would be quite happy with you 2 endlessly agreeing with each other.

At least one of you gives some context to their replies.

I prefer debate and discussion to just agreeing with folk, although I do agree with Joey for wanting to leave the EU.......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

It's a bit boring reading remoaners post - my joke with bruce is a private one grow up- will you!

I'm genuinely confused Joe. The department for leaving ask the civil service, that has largely been rejigged to work on this, to provide detailed analysis of what the various forms of Brexit could do to our economy/society. This would help to inform the negotiating strategy of Davis and his team. They do this, and none of the outcomes are very good. Indeed, the outcomes are largely similar to those came to prior to the vote.

Yet rather than think they may have some credence, you dismiss them in favour of an electorate that won't have done anywhere near as much research as the folk in the civil service. I'm genuinely baffled by your rationale.

 

[roydo]

I prefer debate and discussion to just agreeing with folk, although I do agree with Joey for wanting to leave the EU.......

Kinda what I said Pete. Joe is bored though.

 

[roydo]

I'm genuinely baffled by your rationale.

So not just me then. Cool.

 

[peteblue]

They quite clearly won't though as about 50% of the UK's trade is with the EU and about 7% of the EU's trade is with the UK.

No deal is basically the equivalent of the UK cutting their arm off and the EU cutting a finger off. Just because it hurts them as well doesn't mean the UK wins anything.

It’s not quite that simple though is it. Again, as has been discussed many times, the Eu sells far more to us than we do to them. Germany especially would be hurt if there is a bad deal. We are still the 5/6th largest economy in the world and will become the EU’s largest trading partner after the USA. I agree that many eastern EU countries will not particularly miss trade with the U.K., but the big western ones will and they know it. One German MEP, who really wants the U.K. to stay in the EU, has recently pointed out that removing the U.K. is the equivalent of removing the bottom 18 countries from the EU. If we go to WTO we will be fine and it will cost them more, if the EU doesn’t wish to do a deal over Finance we will be fine and the EU will lose access to the worlds biggest financial centre.

This needs to be a win/win, obviously France and Germany wish to steal our businesses, and the EU bureaucracy wishes to punish us and still control us, but common sense will come to the fore by the end of the deal as it would be self harm by the EU not to...........

 

[roydo]

It’s not quite that simple though is it.

That I think we can all agree on.

Daft thing is Pete, as you say, the businesses will want deals done quickly, and all over the shop. Its the flaming politicians on all sides that play their annoying games.

Exhibit A. That tory MP today lobbing dummies out the pram.