peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
I'm sure there will be 'special status' and why not. We are leaving the EU, but we need to find workable solutions for its implementation and there will have to be goodwill on all sides for it to work......
Current Affairs EU In or Out
- Thread starter micknick
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I'm sure there will be 'special status' and why not. We are leaving the EU, but we need to find workable solutions for its implementation and there will have to be goodwill on all sides for it to work......
davids
Player Valuation: £70m
The Executive as you say will have few complaints (financially at least) the voters in the referendum?
abelard
Player Valuation: £35m
is this what you voted for? was it worth all this?
no wonder we're sick of experts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/23/growth-uk-brexit-data-consumer-squeeze
David Blanchflower
Professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee from June 2006 to May 2009
Unemployment fell by 11,000 on the month but there was a rise in underemployment – measured as part-timers who want full-time jobs – of 14,000. Also there was a big fall in the number of workers from eastern Europe. For the third month in a row real wages – that is, wage rises adjusted for prices changes – declined, this time by 0.5% for June. Even though CPI inflation was 2.6%, wage growth was only 2.1%. Between April and June real pay was down 1.4%, which means a sharp fall in living standards. Hence retail sales remain weak as consumers are squeezed by the fall in their living standards.
The main driver behind this has been the Brexit vote which lowered the pound and increased prices. The claims by some rightwing economists that a free trade nirvana will emerge if there is a hard Brexit has been rightly met this week by incredulity by the economics profession. A letter from 290 prominent economists written a year ago, debunking these claims is relevant here. It turns out that there is a huge disparity between the overwhelming majority of economists that say we would be worse off with Brexit and the handful that say otherwise.
There was other related bad news, including a worsening of the UK’s trade performance. Despite a boost in exports from the lower pound, this was matched by the trade in goods deficit widening unexpectedly to £12.7bn, from £11.3bn in May. Exports fell by 2.8% but imports rose by 1.6%, according to the Office for National Statistics. It was the biggest deficit in nine months and much wider than economists’ forecasts of £11bn.
The move of the public finances to positive territory for the first time in a decade was a brief respite that will not continue. For the year public sector net borrowing at £22.8bn in the four months to July is nearly £2bn higher than it was a year ago.
Andrew Sentance
Senior economic adviser at the PwC consultancy and member of the Bank’s MPC from October 2006 to May 2011
The most recent economic data has not fundamentally changed the post-Brexit picture for the UK economy. Growth is slowing in the UK, while it is picking up elsewhere in the EU. There are two obvious reasons why this is the case. First, Brexit is adding to uncertainty about investment decisions and other long-term economic commitments. Second, inflation has risen because the pound has fallen, and this is squeezing consumers’ purchasing power. Normally, we would expect a recovery in the other EU economies to benefit the UK. Because of Brexit, growth in the UK and other EU economies are now moving in opposite directions.
The pound is now extremely weak in historical terms. Since the euro was launched in 1999, sterling has never been below €1.10 and $1.30 at the same time until this month. The devalued pound does not seem to be boosting exports, but it is eroding living standards and squeezing consumer spending.
The UK continues to look good in terms of employment, but employment is growing faster in continental Europe. In my view, it is likely that UK unemployment will rise over the next year, as growth is slowing, while the jobless total will continue to fall elsewhere in the EU. Over the recovery following the global financial crisis, the UK has been one of the better-performing economies until now. That may now be about to change, as other EU economies gather momentum and the UK economy falters.
no wonder we're sick of experts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/23/growth-uk-brexit-data-consumer-squeeze
David Blanchflower
Professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee from June 2006 to May 2009
Unemployment fell by 11,000 on the month but there was a rise in underemployment – measured as part-timers who want full-time jobs – of 14,000. Also there was a big fall in the number of workers from eastern Europe. For the third month in a row real wages – that is, wage rises adjusted for prices changes – declined, this time by 0.5% for June. Even though CPI inflation was 2.6%, wage growth was only 2.1%. Between April and June real pay was down 1.4%, which means a sharp fall in living standards. Hence retail sales remain weak as consumers are squeezed by the fall in their living standards.
The main driver behind this has been the Brexit vote which lowered the pound and increased prices. The claims by some rightwing economists that a free trade nirvana will emerge if there is a hard Brexit has been rightly met this week by incredulity by the economics profession. A letter from 290 prominent economists written a year ago, debunking these claims is relevant here. It turns out that there is a huge disparity between the overwhelming majority of economists that say we would be worse off with Brexit and the handful that say otherwise.
There was other related bad news, including a worsening of the UK’s trade performance. Despite a boost in exports from the lower pound, this was matched by the trade in goods deficit widening unexpectedly to £12.7bn, from £11.3bn in May. Exports fell by 2.8% but imports rose by 1.6%, according to the Office for National Statistics. It was the biggest deficit in nine months and much wider than economists’ forecasts of £11bn.
The move of the public finances to positive territory for the first time in a decade was a brief respite that will not continue. For the year public sector net borrowing at £22.8bn in the four months to July is nearly £2bn higher than it was a year ago.
Andrew Sentance
Senior economic adviser at the PwC consultancy and member of the Bank’s MPC from October 2006 to May 2011
The most recent economic data has not fundamentally changed the post-Brexit picture for the UK economy. Growth is slowing in the UK, while it is picking up elsewhere in the EU. There are two obvious reasons why this is the case. First, Brexit is adding to uncertainty about investment decisions and other long-term economic commitments. Second, inflation has risen because the pound has fallen, and this is squeezing consumers’ purchasing power. Normally, we would expect a recovery in the other EU economies to benefit the UK. Because of Brexit, growth in the UK and other EU economies are now moving in opposite directions.
The pound is now extremely weak in historical terms. Since the euro was launched in 1999, sterling has never been below €1.10 and $1.30 at the same time until this month. The devalued pound does not seem to be boosting exports, but it is eroding living standards and squeezing consumer spending.
The UK continues to look good in terms of employment, but employment is growing faster in continental Europe. In my view, it is likely that UK unemployment will rise over the next year, as growth is slowing, while the jobless total will continue to fall elsewhere in the EU. Over the recovery following the global financial crisis, the UK has been one of the better-performing economies until now. That may now be about to change, as other EU economies gather momentum and the UK economy falters.
There is no reason whatsoever for the north of Ireland not to have special status, but that carries with it political risks for the government. The DUP have been very muted on the 'position' paper as a large section of their constituents benefit from the PEACE funding in particular the farming community. The DUP's main concern was with the vote for a united Ireland as enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement, something the 'position' paper says will still happen if need be. Hence, the silence from the DUP who don't want to rock the boat for the financial gain for their constituents. Pull the money and the more likelihood that they will lose votes. There is also the Scots and the Welsh who want special status, so will be out to try and get it.
'Workable solutions' are what negotiations are about but the position of this government has wasted a year.
The voters will follow the money. The EU has been very good for the north of Ireland through the PEACE funding - £3.5 billion for the last 7 years- which has mostly gone to farming, a big unionist constituency. Which may explain why the majority voted to stay in.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
I've said it before, but I'm pretty sure that our government have not wasted a year. A year of negotiation, yes, but not a year of preparation. The delay, without the forecast doom and despondency predictions happening, has also helped those who may have wanted to leave the EU but were frightened of any outcome to feel a bit more confident. We just need the Euro fanatics like the BBC to get on board now......
The other day the government released their 'position' paper on the island of Ireland.
"The UK proposes that the Withdrawal Agreement confirms that the current substantive position is not changed as a result of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and that both parties recognise that it will remain unchanged. As long as Ireland remains a member of the EU, Irish citizenship also confers EU citizenship, with all the rights that go with this. This is as true for the people of Northern Ireland who are Irish citizens – or who hold both British and Irish citizenship – as it is for Irish citizens in Ireland. The UK welcomes the commitment in the European Commission’s directives that these EU rights should continue to be respected following the UK’s departure from the EU: “Full account should be taken of the fact that Irish citizens residing in Northern Ireland will continue to enjoy rights as EU citizens”.9
Which means that the ECJ will have a direct say in the rights of citizens in part of the UK i.e the north of Ireland.
This is quite opposite to what was said today on the 'position' paper on the ECJ. That the ECJ wont have a 'direct' say in the UK.
Using the island of Ireland example, that would mean EU citizens in other parts of the UK, will have their rights of EU citizenship protected by the ECJ.
The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is saying, which doesn't inspire any confidence in the 'year of preparation'. That is before any mention of the 'detention' letter sent out by the Home Office to some EU citizens. The height of incompetence.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
It's not so much that one hand doesn't know what the other is doing, as much as the media just latch onto anything at the moment, put whatever spin on it and wind everybody up, then the government has to clarify. There are a lot of people jumping to the wrong conclusions at the moment......
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
All opinions listed in the grenade poster seem right. Certainly genuinely held.
So was the above OK then....
Figures on my bus came from the Office of Budget Responsibility at the time of referendum, as the total over 5 years attributable to leaving the EU.
OBR independent of either side.
No reason as yet to think that they got it wrong.
What would you paint on your bus today?
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
I'd paint "The doom mongers got it wrong, again " and below that "It seems we are not at the back of any queues after all".... above the door I'd write "Front of the Queue"....
The 'position' papers aren't clarification, they are exactly what is on the tin, the 'position' of the government regarding an issue. The government keeps trying to gloss over the cracks in its position. The island of Ireland - ECJ will have a direct say. On the ECJ - it will not have a direct say in the UK' - which is not the case.
The government has backed itself into a corner with its 'red lines' and as such it has become imperative for them, to show that these 'red lines' have not been moved. Even though they blatantly have. Political vanity is no way to run 'negotiations' as it just reveals how incompetent the Tories are. They will keep trying to convince people day is night and night is day.
This is a very testing time for the Tories and the May government aren't up to the mark. In a way the BBC are letting them off lightly.
They will pay billions for access to trade with the EU -the customs union and single market - and the other institutes. The only thing that will change will be visas for EU nationals wanting to come into mainland UK and claim a 'great victory'.
May may have fallen on her sword today of the EU parliment having control - come party conference time someone will stand against her for the Tory leadership enter Jacob Rees Mogg!!
abelard
Player Valuation: £35m
the side of my bus reads: "the pound collapsed because of Brexit, so your fare has increased because it already costs more to import fuel, and we haven't even left yet"
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