Yes and if they impose tarrifs they will be 3 billion down the pan !
Current Affairs EU In or Out
- Thread starter micknick
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Do you trust this government to 'manage' migration? On pretty much any metric you care to use, 'unmanaged' EU migrants perform better than 'managed' non-EU migrants. The evidence is there before us.
hallamblue
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These negotiations are already in trouble. We've agreed to pay to leave on day one.
Davies probably didn't explain that they sell more to us than we do to them.
Gouldy
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And this is the exact issue right here. That is such a broad scoped/vague answer that it can come across perhaps naive, ignoring all the incatricies the whole Brexit issue requires to be "successful". What does 'free trade' actually encompass?:
1. Will we join the EEA like Norway? This would also (very likely) include accepting the free movement of people like other members of the EEA do. This would also involve paying a fee to be a part of the Single Market. Norway pay a rate lower than we currently do to the EU, but not enough to call it a drastic saving by the Government. Being a part of the EEA may also bring about higher costs for as exports would have to satisfy 'rule of origin' requirements and due to ever increasingly complexity of global supply chains, exporters would more than likely have to reduce their inputs used imported from non-EU countries to satisfy the point of origin requisite. EEA members also have to accept EU Single Market legislation and regulations without being able to have an input as to their effects, and thus have zero influence on how to govern the Single Market despite being a member of it.
2. Would we create bilateral treaties like Switzerland? If so, they had to accept the free movement of people as part of securing those treaties. They also have to accept EU legislation and regulations, but have no say in shaping them. How long would it take to draw up treaties that cover every aspect of trade we have with the EU? Currently, the Swiss do not have a treaty covering financial services with the EU and these agreements have been in place for years - what would happen if we cannot come to an agreement on a particular field within the 2 years?
3. Would we re-join EFTA? This would mean we are not a part of the Single Market which could therefore result in increases in non-tariff barriers to trade between EU and UK. As it stands EFTA is not designed to lower trade costs, and therefore every member of EFTA is either a member of the EEA or has some form of bilateral agreement with the EU (and as such accept free movement of people, pay into the EU and have no zero influence in EU legislation and regulations, thus leading us right back to square 1, but with no seat at the table to influence laws.)
4. Would we simply settle under WTO rules and regs? Our exports would therefore be subject to Most Favoured Nation tariffs which we can set ourselves. However, since the average import tariff charge in the EU is 1%, we don't have much wiggle room in this department. We would also have no right of access to EU markets for service providers due to a lack of progress by the WTO in this area.
As it stands if we join the Single Market either through the EEA or a bilateral treaty, their is no precedent that we will be allowed to not accept the Free Movement of people.
In regards to creating trade deals with non-EU countries, do people really think that we would have the same or greater bargaining power as a small country than the EU?
Regardless of those outcomes, our most important economic partner is the EU, and geography means that will never change.
As it stands there would have to be trade-offs which can be categorised as economic benefits vs sovereignty. In an economy currently such as ours in a somewhat volatile global economy (see past recessions of the past 10 years), can we really withstand losing economic benefits from our biggest and most important trading partner in order to 'take back control' (in which currently the options on the table actually mean we won't really take back too much control)
Just a few thoughts for anyone who thinks Brexit will be quick and simple.
I'm inclined to think many Brexiters thought that Britain is so big and powerful that a new, non Swiss/Norwegian style, agreement would emerge just for us.
The evidence as you put it Bruce is our public services have crumbled under the pressure - immigrants with jobs on work visas a big Yes too - immigrants to come over with no job even for 3 months a big NO!
that should also work the other way on our people doing the same thing moving to an EU country - unless the can prove they are self sufficient and can pay health insurance both ways!
It wont be quick , and simple as their rules are so complex - that's why we voted out - since the election I see the Remaoners back out in force - they are clutching straws a deal will be done it has to be beneficial and agreed to both sides!
we could have access to the single market and also trade world wide like we used to!
As I've said to you before, employment stats are significantly better for the 'uncontrolled' portion of the migrant population than for the 'controlled' portion. That to me is evidence. I'd love to see the evidence you're using to form your belief that the government can manage migration better than individual people can.
No David Davies did not he stated that he had to go along with their format, He stated it will have to be returned to on that issue of what they demand in a divorce settlement - its odds on we will have to pay a fee to be in their single market for trade without signing up to the three freedoms!
Hi Bruce a book for you to buy not read it yet but looks good a fathers day present -
Gouldy
Player Valuation: £1m
Is that what you want? Or are you just being flippant? I'm not sure if you actually understand the gravitas and complexities of the whole situation.
Gouldy
Player Valuation: £1m
How have you worked that out? There is no precedent for that as no other country outside of the EU model but are within the SM have managed that..
What makes you think our little nation has the bargaining power to obtain such a position that is against the fundamental reasons for the EU?
We are leaving -YES so once we leave what's your problem if you like or want to be dictated to by a zero growth organisation thats costing us 8 billion per year, and causing us free unemployed movement the fine it will stop it will take time - it is complex on their side not ours we then can trade world wide with tariff free negotiated deals - how the hell do New Zealand and Australia cope ????
Why do we have to be restricted by 27 other countries ?
read my post it will not be easy but doable!
The remainers have now come out in force again they forget we voted OUT!
6th largest economy in the world !
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