Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Ruairi77]

I agree there is an element of gambling involved but this is because NOONE KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN FINANCIALLY (even though esk thinks he does) and NOBODY EVER KNOWS ANYWAY what is going to happen economically (though financial speculators try and gamble on it and are sometimes successful) or can predict recessions or booms with any certainty.

In voting Brexit though I felt it was worth the extra financial uncertainty to be able to make our own trade agreements (not allowed to do that in the EU) set our own foreign policy , our own decisions on the economy and immigration (whether more or less or from which countries we can now decide on) and our own laws all round. We can now decide on all these democratically (in theory at least) by voting in the people that will carry out the particular decisions we want.

I don't see how you control immigration without securing ALL your borders. I don't see how you thrive economically in a smaller market. Another Scottish Indy ref will lead to further division, whether it succeeds or fails. I think a lot of people voted to leave as a protest vote. It's a pretty big gamble. It's like going all in before the flop.

 

[magicjuan]

Ultimately perhaps, but they demonstrably wanted to stay in the EU.

That isn't so, to say demonstrably. The actual 'establishment', those that control and pull the strings, do not declare their interests, but you can guarantee they would have beneficial contingencies for either eventuality. I don't believe the opportunity to vote in the referendum would have been presented unless the corporate interests could benefit from either option.

I posted soon after the vote, when the economic hysteria was at its zenith, that those that make money will continue to make money. They are the establishment, we don't know their names or identities but we have to dance to their tune. All they ever want is what's best for them and their system.

 

[Armaghtoffee]

The EU even stated on the border issue in Ireland they had no desire to undo the good Friday agreement- it can stay open!

Border crossings are nothing to do with the GFA. As recently as yesterday the EU negotiator on Brexit said he can give no guarantee that there will not be a return to a hard border in Ireland.

Even our historically split voters came together enough to vote Remain. I live on the border, I use both Euro and Sterling daily and I can already see the impact of the Leave vote. Newry and Derry are seeing short term booms due to the favourable exchange but the future is bleak for Ireland post Brexit.

Frustrating that uniquely my country has adopted a majority political view nationwide but that it counts for nothing due to the detached London parliament.

 

[bflefc]

Who in your mind are the establishment? Because from where I sit which is reasonably close to the establishment they are all delighted with the outcome.

There are a group of people who like me wish to remain in the EU but despite whatever wealth (or not) they may have they're not the real establishment.

Genuinely interested in who you think are the establishment.

Just like you're 'on the inside' at Everton in the Moshiri era, eh? Elstone's circle of trust....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I'm waiting for WW3, our students could do with a spell in a foxhole on the steppe to toughen them up.

Heavens above. The comment was that it would result in increased instability in the western world. That has happened. We have a UK divided, an American president (buoyed by Brexit) who doesn't value NATO and chummies up to Russia, and extremist groups on the march across Europe (buoyed by Brexit).

Were you expecting tanks to rock up at the white cliffs by the end of June ffs?

 

[The Esk]

Just like you're 'on the inside' at Everton in the Moshiri era, eh? Elstone's circle of trust....

I don't consider myself to be part of Elstone's circle of trust that's for sure.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I agree there is an element of gambling involved but this is because NOONE KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN FINANCIALLY (even though esk thinks he does) and NOBODY EVER KNOWS ANYWAY what is going to happen economically (though financial speculators try and gamble on it and are sometimes successful) or can predict recessions or booms with any certainty.

In voting Brexit though I felt it was worth the extra financial uncertainty to be able to make our own trade agreements (not allowed to do that in the EU) set our own foreign policy , our own decisions on the economy and immigration (whether more or less or from which countries we can now decide on) and our own laws all round. We can now decide on all these democratically (in theory at least) by voting in the people that will carry out the particular decisions we want.

I certainly do not know for certain but I believe once the initial messy and expensive but necessary divorce is over we will do better economically than the countries left in the EU.

Ok, making our own trade deals - Liam Fox has already said that we will have exactly the same arrangement with the other WTO nations as we do now, so that ideal is sadly bunkem (we will also in all likelihood lose the fantastic trade deal we have both with the EU and the other nations for whom the EU has trade deals).

On immigration, we already let in more non-EU migrants than EU ones, and they are less beneficial to our economy. I can't fathom at all how we expect a government to do a good job of managing immigration when they already do a worse job than doing nothing at all. We have evidence before our very eyes but people choose to ignore it.

On laws, as has been said many times before, the world is a global place that requires global cooperation, so many of our laws are already determined by international bodies. This is certainly the case for those that the EU has any say in. As it is, all EU laws will be passed onto the UK statute book, so nothing will change (again).

On economic predictions, this seems to be a common feature on this thread, that if an 'expert' is wrong now and then, that means we discount everything they ever say. They don't have to be perfect, all they have to be is better than the alternative (which appears to be whistling in the wind). Doctors currently have a success rate of ~ 50% in terms of their decision making being the best possible option (due in no small part because of the pace of change and the number of new papers published), but no one would advocate going to your local butcher because doctors mess up. It's madness, and it's the same here. We're discounting pretty much every economist on the planet saying Brexit will be a crapshoot, on the basis that they didn't predict the credit crunch. Complex systems are almost impossible to predict with accuracy, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do the best we can.

 

[magicjuan]

I don't consider myself to be part of Elstone's circle of trust that's for sure.

Elstone. Trust. Same sentence?

Shome mishtake shurely?

 

[JonS]

Heavens above. The comment was that it would result in increased instability in the western world. That has happened. We have a UK divided, an American president (buoyed by Brexit) who doesn't value NATO and chummies up to Russia, and extremist groups on the march across Europe (buoyed by Brexit).

Were you expecting tanks to rock up at the white cliffs by the end of June ffs?

Agreed in many ways but look at the instability that the West including America and the EU has caused in the rest of the world with its arm sales regime change and bombings.

At least Trump has said he doesn't want to pursue regime change and interference in foreign countries any more or start a war with Russia that both the US and EU seemed to be edging towards (but let's hope that he doesn't start one with China or anyone else).

All too often we are guilty of only looking at our own eurocentric back yard rather than having trade, immigration and foreign policy on an equal footing with all countries.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Agreed in many ways but look at the instability that the West including America and the EU has caused in the rest of the world with its arm sales regime change and bombings.

At least Trump has said he doesn't want to pursue regime change and interference in foreign countries any more or start a war with Russia that both the US and EU seemed to be edging towards (but let's hope that he doesn't start one with China or anyone else).

All too often we are guilty of only looking at our own eurocentric back yard rather than having trade, immigration and foreign policy on an equal footing with all countries.

Well he seems to be doing a good job of poking China.

 

[JonS]

Ok, making our own trade deals - Liam Fox has already said that we will have exactly the same arrangement with the other WTO nations as we do now, so that ideal is sadly bunkem (we will also in all likelihood lose the fantastic trade deal we have both with the EU and the other nations for whom the EU has trade deals).

On immigration, we already let in more non-EU migrants than EU ones, and they are less beneficial to our economy. I can't fathom at all how we expect a government to do a good job of managing immigration when they already do a worse job than doing nothing at all. We have evidence before our very eyes but people choose to ignore it.

On laws, as has been said many times before, the world is a global place that requires global cooperation, so many of our laws are already determined by international bodies. This is certainly the case for those that the EU has any say in. As it is, all EU laws will be passed onto the UK statute book, so nothing will change (again).

On economic predictions, this seems to be a common feature on this thread, that if an 'expert' is wrong now and then, that means we discount everything they ever say. They don't have to be perfect, all they have to be is better than the alternative (which appears to be whistling in the wind). Doctors currently have a success rate of ~ 50% in terms of their decision making being the best possible option (due in no small part because of the pace of change and the number of new papers published), but no one would advocate going to your local butcher because doctors mess up. It's madness, and it's the same here. We're discounting pretty much every economist on the planet saying Brexit will be a crapshoot, on the basis that they didn't predict the credit crunch. Complex systems are almost impossible to predict with accuracy, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do the best we can.

OK we will have to see but my bet is that the EU will collapse or implode and we will prosper relative to those countries once the initial messy divorce period is over.

Obviously I don't know this and could be wrong but let's wait and see...

Forgive me if I do not place too much store in experts (both in economics or in science, who often have a vested interest in things IMO. I am not a luddite - just have many years of experience watching these things and their failure to get things right)

 

[JonS]

Well he seems to be doing a good job of poking China.

Yes, I don't want to defend him too much - he is a bit of a loose cannon.

That said I did find it refreshing the way he talked to the Taiwan leader - why the hell shouldn't he have done?

Pigs might fly but I'd like to see us having a benevolent foreign policy and just do what is right without having to sidle up to horror regimes and dictators just because we sell them arms or want their oil.

 

[edge]

Not to mention the possible reintroduction of a hard border in Ireland. Actually, what happens now? Do the devolved governments of Scotland and N.Ireland have a say?

don't know about N.Ireland , but the Scottish parliament set up after the Sewel report, states that they are under the jurisdiction of the Uk parliament in regards to , foreign and specifically EU policy and hold no powers in regards to such decisions, there are some instances of them making in roads into this part of policy , but any rulings are purely advisory and non binding on the UK parliament and are not entered into law .
Will not stop them moaning whichever way it goes, as far as I an concerned they can go with the EU if they want,

 

[The Cowboy]

Ok, making our own trade deals - Liam Fox has already said that we will have exactly the same arrangement with the other WTO nations as we do now, so that ideal is sadly bunkem (we will also in all likelihood lose the fantastic trade deal we have both with the EU and the other nations for whom the EU has trade deals).

On immigration, we already let in more non-EU migrants than EU ones, and they are less beneficial to our economy. I can't fathom at all how we expect a government to do a good job of managing immigration when they already do a worse job than doing nothing at all. We have evidence before our very eyes but people choose to ignore it.

On laws, as has been said many times before, the world is a global place that requires global cooperation, so many of our laws are already determined by international bodies. This is certainly the case for those that the EU has any say in. As it is, all EU laws will be passed onto the UK statute book, so nothing will change (again).

On economic predictions, this seems to be a common feature on this thread, that if an 'expert' is wrong now and then, that means we discount everything they ever say. They don't have to be perfect, all they have to be is better than the alternative (which appears to be whistling in the wind). Doctors currently have a success rate of ~ 50% in terms of their decision making being the best possible option (due in no small part because of the pace of change and the number of new papers published), but no one would advocate going to your local butcher because doctors mess up. It's madness, and it's the same here. We're discounting pretty much every economist on the planet saying Brexit will be a crapshoot, on the basis that they didn't predict the credit crunch. Complex systems are almost impossible to predict with accuracy, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do the best we can.

What's your basis for the statement in bold, Bruce? You appear to be making a generalisation that non-EU folk are less educated and offer less in skills than EU folk. Just wondering what your justification is for this assertion.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

OK we will have to see but my bet is that the EU will collapse or implode and we will prosper relative to those countries once the initial messy divorce period is over.

Obviously I don't know this and could be wrong but let's wait and see...

Forgive me if I do not place too much store in experts (both in economics or in science, who often have a vested interest in things IMO. I am not a luddite - just have many years of experience watching these things and their failure to get things right)

The thing is, if the EU does suffer in the coming years, we will have played a huge role in that, as we will have given wind to the extreme parties that are gaining traction and who want to destroy the EU. That isn't a good thing, so it's not right imo to say we'll be better off from a mess we played a huge part in causing. For the last few decades we've had a level of unity with our European peers that is largely unrivaled in European history and it's a crying shame to be turning our backs on that.