Well it’s extremely slim, obviously, just saying stranger things have happened.
Emiliano Sala
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Well it’s extremely slim, obviously, just saying stranger things have happened.
Toffee in Jandals
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There's good connections from Nantes to Cardiff via either Paris or Amsterdam with Air France or KLM. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but personally I'd rather have done that and flown on a scheduled commercial service.
I know it's a bit of a conspiracy theory and perhaps in bad taste, but I did wonder whether there is something more to the story. It's odd that he turned down Cardiff's offer to provide transport. Also weird that he phoned his family and friends to say he was worried about the plane falling apart and that if they don't hear from him again they should fear the worst. He sounded very calm on the recording for someone scared that their plane was falling apart and the pilot didn't send a distress signal other than asking to land in jersey.
Still creeps me out, that one.
I know they eventually found what are 99% likely to be bits of the plane on Reunion, like, but just goes to show... there's a hell of a lot of water.
Cardiff supposedly offered to organise his travel but because it was a personal trip he declined. Went through an agent who was involved in the deal.
That plane could have been travelling at a relatively slow speed when/if it hit the water, I imagine. I doubt there'd have been an explosion and I doubt there'd be much debris, just from looking at a picture.
It's awful to think about. I just hope they find them, unfortunately I fear they never will. I know stranger things have happened, but I just don't see how they can be alive now. I'd love to be wrong.
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Big Fat Sam
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Looks more and more like the plane and its passengers will never be found, barring some huge stroke of luck. Plane is probably on the seabed and the two lids drifted off many, many miles away. Utterly heartbreaking for the families; they may ultimately accept their fate, but to not get their bodies back will be something they'll likely never come to terms with.
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Big Fat Sam
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I flew into Beijing an hour before that flight was set to arrive that very same day and remember the airport (as you can imagine) being no different than it ever is. Just a few hours later and the world's media had decended on it and the story started and never found its end. I've a massive interest in MH 370, but feel we'll never find out what happened. The ocean is simply too big and it's been such a long time already. Even in the 1000000000000000000-1 chance that they find the black boxes, they've been useless for years already and thus wouldn't help the investigation anyway. Still completely baffled how in this day and age an airplane can go missing and never be found.
Aye.
It's a scary thought and I really don't like thinking about plane accidents, tbf! I accept it's one of the safest forms of travel... it's just when something goes wrong, it won't end well!
I think all we know for sure is that it did crash in the Indian Ocean - due to the debris on Reunion - and that's probably all we'll ever find out.
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Big Fat Sam
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Yep, but the hows and whys will go unanswered. That's probably the most painful thing for the families involved. Kin planes. Still love flying and no number of random or crazy accidents will ever stop me getting on one.
I don't hate it, don't like it. It's just a necessity, ultimately.
For some reason, I have a fear of take off. Don't ask me why, I just do. Once we're in the air I'm fine.
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Big Fat Sam
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It's the most dangerous part of flying (alongside landing..) so no surprises there! I flew to Luxembourg recently for work and was in one of those crappy planes similar (kind of) to Sala's. It was about a third the size of an EasyJet plane, about 15 rows and 2 people one side, 2 people the other, so about 60 in total. Was bouncing around all over the place, which was a bit unnerving, haha.
Do we know what the score is with that message? The way it was reported was as if he'd called to say his last goodbyes but the bit I heard sounded like he'd just made a general call in which he was - probably jokingly - saying that the plane was a bit rubbish. Was there any context given to it?
I haven't kept up with the details, so there may be more information available now. If there's anything known now that contradicts or better informs what I write here, please share. All of my references will be Yank/FAA, but flying rules are more or less universal, so I don't expect they will be very different.
The flight was Nantes (NTE) to Cardiff (CWL), which is roughly 500 km or 265 nm. It was flown in a Piper Malibu, which flies roughly 200 kts cruise speed, so depending on routing, etc., that's about a 90-minute flight.
The flight could have been conducted VFR or IFR and a flight plan could have been filed (not sure if that's required flying between France and UK). A flight plan will tell you a lot about the pilot's intentions.
Typically, airplanes cruise at the highest reasonable altitude (or highest allowed by ATC for routing). This is for safety, comfort, and fuel efficiency. Winds aloft can change this (jet stream is not fun to fly against), and short hops tend to stay lower. (Above certain altitudes require pressurization or oxygen onboard, so presumably 12,000 was the highest altitude they would have chosen for such a short flight)
I can't imagine why you would want to fly the Malibu for 90 minutes below 8,000-12,000 feet unless airspace and routing required otherwise. Especially at night. If the pilot was not properly qualified that's an entirely new can of worms.
What we know (unless this has been updated) is the pilot was flying at 5,000 feet and asked to descend and was last seen on radar at 2,300 feet near Jersey/over water. There does not seem to be any declaration of emergency (?) and the pilot did not appear to turn around prior to descending (?), suggesting the pilot intended to cross the Channel at this altitude.
IF that is true, the pilot may have been (a) trying to get away from icing conditions, (b) trying to avoid or fly around a cloud layer, (c) been dealing with a mechanical or operational issue that required too much attention, or (d) possibly disoriented and making poor decisions (basically lost). In any of these situations, the pilot should exhibit the awareness to turn around or talk and ask for help (or both), as this is the standard training and procedure (even for the most basic levels of piloting). Surely there can be more information that better informs the scenario, but unless we learn something else this was not a typical and normal flight operation (even over land at night in good weather, much less over international water at night in probably poor conditions).
Most likely scenario is the airplane impacted the water at cruise speed (even if its slowest cruise speed) or after a loss of control at low altitude (stall or spin) and the passengers died upon impact or shortly thereafter. The suggestion that they could have landed in rough seas, located and inflated the life raft, and exited the aircraft safely is very unlikely in my opinion.
It's entirely likely that they could have continued flying for some time in an unknown direction or distance after radar contact was lost, but if they had found a safe landing spot they would have reached out already. I would like to think otherwise, but no reason to believe anything than we first expected, that these men (or whoever was on board) are lost. RIP these men, sad way to go for them, and great loss to family and friends, not to mention the two football clubs.
A transcript of the audio reads: "Hey brothers, how's everything going? Brother, I'm dead. I was in Nantes doing stuff, stuff, stuff and stuff... neverending, neverending, neverending, neverending. So anyway boys, I'm now on a plane which seems to be falling apart.
"And now I'm leaving for Cardiff, crazy that tomorrow I'll be training in the afternoon with my new teammates. We'll see what happens.
"So how are things with you brothers? All well?
"In an hour and a half if you haven't had news of me, I don't know if they'll send someone to look for me, because they're not going to find me. But, you know...
"Dad, I'm so scared."
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