This odds thing seems to have caused confusion, wish I had never posted now.
It’s a 40% chance of a non top team getting to one of the cup finals based on the data provided. (8 occasions in the last 20 years) not a 40% chance of Everton winning it.

2 further thoughts & then I’m done on this:
1) We are now one of the best of the rest so that should increase our chances
2) Moyes can give most teams a game if he wants to so it’s disappointing that he doesn’t seem to give the cup games a higher priority
Hopefully next year we have 3 cups to go for.