2025/26 David Moyes

[jaycee]

A lovely little cup run for all the lads.

We don't even have to win it.

Just a little run to keep everyone happy,should do the trick.

You're worse than listening to a brummie accent

 

[Exeter_Gently]

You're worse than listening to a brummie accent

That's brilliant.

 

[JobForTheMoyes]

Charming - dig those odds out and not a peep!

 

[Bluepablo]

Here jare the odds:

FA Cup

A club like Everton in a typical year:

Rough odds: ~2% to 6% (≈ 1 in 50 to 1 in 15)

League Cup (which is dominated more by top teams)

Rough odds: ~1% to 3% (≈ 1 in 100 to 1 in 30)

Why that “range” exists:

Stronger non-big-six teams (Villa, Newcastle, etc.) → closer to ~5–6%

Mid-table / weaker sides → closer to ~1–3%

Lower-league teams → <1%

Okay fair enough but we seem to have moved from the chances of a non top team getting to one of the finals (8 times in 20 years (not bad odds)) to the chances of Everton winning a cup which I do agree is more remote.

 

[Bluepablo]

Charming - dig those odds out and not a peep!

Charming - dig those odds out and not a peep!

Sorry for the delay, was watching Ireland. It was appreciated.

 

[R934]

It mentions Moyes so i'm sticking it here
My bad if its been posted

 

[Swartzy]

Charming - dig those odds out and not a peep!

who needs 20yr stats

2025
Fa cup - Palace (12)
League cup - Newcastle (5th)

Who cares about league Positions last season, look who walked away with a Trophy and Europe..

 

[JobForTheMoyes]

who needs 20yr stats

2025
Fa cup - Palace (12)
League cup - Newcastle (5th)

Who cares about league Positions last season, look who walked away with a Trophy and Europe..

I’m not sure a team winning its first FA Cup in 120 years of existence supports your argument!

 

[Swartzy]

I’m not sure a team winning its first FA Cup in 120 years of existence supports your argument!

Why ?

The best way of look at something is the most recent occasion.

Give me your reasoning behind not wanting a run at a cup, to see if I can understand it..

We have another window before next season if it's squad depth/quality you're worried about..

 

[Kevsleftpeg]

Crystal Palace won it last year and Leicester a few years before that.

We last won it when we finished 15th.

Wigan won it.

You said cup runs are not important..

Fat lot of good it’s done them. I want us to build a team that challenges in all competitions every season, plays good football and gives every team a game home and away. The only way to do that is by finishing high up the league and attracting better players. Cup wins are just a temporary sugar rush.

 

[Marius57]

Why ?

The best way of look at something is the most recent occasion.

Give me your reasoning behind not wanting a run at a cup, to see if I can understand it..

We have another window before next season if it's squad depth/quality you're worried about..

Why is it?

1 year in isolation has a higher chance of just being a fluke. Using 20 years of data shows more realistic trends.

Before last year, when was the last time 5th and 12th won those cups? Because interestingly, one of those cups has already gone back to one of the top 2

 

[Kevsleftpeg]

So that’s 8 times in the last 20 years over the 2 competitions, a 40% chance. Worth a go I would think.

A forty percentage chance divided between the bottom 14 teams so more like a 3% chance.

 

[Kevsleftpeg]

Okay fair enough but we seem to have moved from the chances of a non top team getting to one of the finals (8 times in 20 years (not bad odds)) to the chances of Everton winning a cup which I do agree is more remote.

Are you numerate? There is an 8 in 20 chance of a non-top team getting to the final. The chance of that team being Everton is is not 8 in 20. It’s 8 in 20 divided by the number of non top teams, 14 at the very plus maybe the top of the championship.

 

[Kevsleftpeg]

Why ?

The best way of look at something is the most recent occasion.

Give me your reasoning behind not wanting a run at a cup, to see if I can understand it..

We have another window before next season if it's squad depth/quality you're worried about..

My view is that cup competitions are ultimately meaningless unless they are a platform for improved league position. For example, I would much prefer us to finish 4th and make the champions league semis every year in a ten year period but not win any cups than win two FA cups and a League cup in the same period but finish bottom half every season. I prefer watching a good team getting good results week in week out.

 

[Bluepablo]

A forty percentage chance divided between the bottom 14 teams so more like a 3% chance.

This odds thing seems to have caused confusion, wish I had never posted now.

It’s a 40% chance of a non top team getting to one of the cup finals based on the data provided. (8 occasions in the last 20 years) not a 40% chance of Everton winning it.

2 further thoughts & then I’m done on this:

1) We are now one of the best of the rest so that should increase our chances
2) Moyes can give most teams a game if he wants to so it’s disappointing that he doesn’t seem to give the cup games a higher priority

Hopefully next year we have 3 cups to go for.